The Mariners have been breaking plenty of glass this postseason, but that hasn’t equated to sustained success.
But there are still a few for a lineup that will have to contend with rookie phenom Trey Yesavage in Game 6, before facing Shane Bieber for a second time in an if-necessary Game 7. Of those issues, scoring first isn’t one of them. But what happens after that may be bolded, circled and underlined at the top of the list.
In 10 playoff games, the Mariners have struck first nine times. They’re the third team to do that in a single postseason, joining the 1998 Yankees and the 1982 Royals. But in those nine games, they’re 5-4. Funnily enough, the one time Seattle gave up the first run — Game 1 of the ALCS, when George Springer hit a first-pitch home run in the bottom of the first — the Mariners came back to win.
It’s a stark change from how the regular season went. In 88 regular-season games in which they scored first, the Mariners went 61-27 (.693 winning percentage) — a shade over league average. When they surrendered the opening run, they went 29-45.
In other words, they were less dominant in the race to the first run than they have been in the postseason, but it was more impactful by far.
And even in the games Seattle has won in the playoffs, it’s rarely done so because of the early scoring. Of those nine leads, eight saw Detroit or Toronto come back to tie the game or take the lead. The lone exception was Game 3 of the ALDS, when the Mariners put up back-to-back crooked numbers for the only time of the playoffs, and rolled to their most comfortable win.
“Big innings, those are huge in the postseason,” Cal Raleigh said ahead of Game 3 of the ALCS. “Putting up crooked numbers can really be a huge thing, especially with how much shorter pitchers’ leashes are and getting to bullpens and getting to see guys multiple times. So crooked numbers are huge.”
Game 5 was the latest instance of the oft-repeated story. Eugenio Suárez brought T-Mobile Park to life in the bottom of the second, launching a first-pitch meatball from Kevin Gausman 396 feet into the bullpen. But once again, it was Toronto landing the second punch, on George Springer’s two-out RBI double off Matt Brash in the fifth. Then the Blue Jays threw the third in the next inning, taking the lead on Ernie Clement’s RBI single after Alejandro Kirk led off with a double off Bryan Woo.
Of course, Seattle came back with arguably the greatest jab-hook combination in franchise history in the eighth, pairing Cal Raleigh’s game-tying moonshot with Suárez’s go-ahead grand slam for the club’s biggest postseason inning since the 2001 ALCS.
“The fans and the stadium, they were waiting 26 innings for something like that,” Raleigh said after the game. “Obviously, [we] didn’t deliver the first two games. But when those moments happen, they just exploded.”
So far, the Seattle lineup has struggled to create those moments as the game goes on and it’s gotten a second look at a starter. In their first pass through the lineup across the three ALCS games at T-Mobile Park, the Mariners went 5-for-22 with three homers, two doubles and five walks. In their second passes, they mustered four hits, all of which were singles — and none of which saw the runner make it to second base.
Because of that, Toronto outscored Seattle 20-1 in the middle five innings — the third through the seventh frame — of the three games in the PNW, which followed Seattle winning those five frames 9-0 in the first two games of the series.
The bright side for the Mariners is that they’ve especially woken up when the Blue Jays go to their bullpen, hitting .273 vs. Toronto’s relievers, compared to a .177 average vs. its starters. Seattle’s .955 OPS vs. the Jays’ bullpen is the highest of the four teams in the two League Championship Series — by over 40%.
That would make the goal simple in Game 6: Keep the pressure on Yesavage and force Toronto manager John Schneider to make a move early.
Just don’t expect that first shot to be the one that decides it.
