Marquette Golden Eagles (6-13, 1-7 Big East) vs Providence Friars (9-9, 2-5 Big East)
Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
Time: 5pm Central
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Chase Ross, 15.6 ppg
Rebounds: Ben Gold, 6.1 rpg
Assists: Nigel James, 4.2 apg
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Marquette Injury Note: Sean Jones has missed the last five games with a foot issue. If he was out on Friday for that reason, I don’t expect him to be available on Monday. Ben Gold missed the St. John’s game with an ankle issue, then was listed as questionable against DePaul, but ended up playing 15 minutes against the Blue Demons off the bench.
Providence Stats Leaders
Points: Jason Edwards, 17.2 ppg, best in the Big East
Rebounds: Oswin Erhunmwunse, 7.3 rpg
Assists: Jason Edwards, 3.3 apg
Providence Injury Note: Jason Edwards has missed Providence’s last two games with a foot injury. However, he was only questionable on Friday against Creighton but ultimately did not play.
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KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #122, their lowest ranking since going into the 2014-2015 regular season finale at #124.
Providence: #63
Game Projection: Providence has a 60% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 86-83.
This Season So Far: Not entirely unlike Marquette, there’s a lot of questions to be asked about what anyone saw in Providence heading into the season because they are definitely not living up to it. The ship has definitely sailed on the Friars being a top four team in the Big East the way the preseason coaches’ poll had them. The door’s not completely closed on PC ending up as a top 50 team on KenPom or a top 60 team on Torvik the way they were projected to be, but it’s going to take a lot of work at this point of the year to swing things back in that direction.
We can’t even really say that anything has gone wrong for Kim English’s team here. Lost in overtime at Mohegan Sun Casino to Virginia Tech after nearly stealing the game from the Hokies late in regulation. Lost at Colorado against a Buffaloes team that seems to be relative comparable to PC. Got thunked by Wisconsin and Florida in their Thanksgiving weekend event, but those aren’t really awful results given the direction of those teams. Lost the Big East opener on the road in double overtime to Butler in a game that they weren’t favored in to start with. Lost to Seton Hall, Connecticut, and Villanova, all at home, but those squads are heading to the NCAA tournament. Nothing there is bad, per se, just ultimately disappointing more than anything else.
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They did beat St. John’s at The Garden, though. Beat Creighton at home back on Friday, too, although seeing as it was a five point win after the Friars threw a 14-0 run at the Bluejays after a 57-all tie in the second half…. hoooooboy, that is a rough look and there was a brief moment in the final 20 seconds where Providence was one more stupid foul away from blowing it.
Tempo Free Fun: I skipped over the obvious answer as to what people saw in the Friars heading into the season and the obvious answer as to what their problem is in the previous section, mostly because it’s a math thing and the previous section is for What Are Your Results?
If preseason prognosticators were looking at this team and saying “I like what they have on the offensive end of the floor,” then Providence has proved them right. The Friars are ranked #30 in the country in offensive efficiency by KenPom.com as of Saturday morning, and they do it the old fashioned way: They hit shots and don’t turn the ball over. Not turning it over all that much gives them more chances to hit shots, and again: Pretty good at doing that. PC’s three-point shooting as a team is passable at just under 35%, but they excel at scoring because 1) they don’t shoot that many threes as part of their offense and 2) they’re great at shooting twos. Nearly 57% inside the arc is #53 in the country at the moment, and that will carry you a pretty long way. If Providence gets their three-pointers from the right guys — Jaylin Sellers at 39% and five attempts a game, Jason Edwards at 36% and 6.3 attempts — then that gets things really going. You’d like to see Stefan Vaaks either tone down his attempt rate — a team high 7.9 threes per game — or get better at hitting them — just 33.8% — but that’s dangerous enough to not really complain about it.
If preseason prognosticators were looking at this team and saying “I like what they have on the defensive end of the floor,” then Providence has made fools of them. You can kind of understand the idea of saying “well, Kim English finished his first season in Friartown with the #18 defense in the country per KenPom, obviously they’ll bounce back after last year’s #134 finish!” However, that bounce back has not happened, not in the slightest, and in fact the Friars are worse. KenPom currently has them at #153 in defensive efficiency, and they’re giving up well more than three points per 100 possessions (adjusted for competition, of course) than they did last year.
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The Friars do defend two-point shooting very well, but they’re getting blasted out of the barn on three-pointers. Yes, I know, three-point shooting defense is a liiiiiiitle bit luck-based, but 1) Providence is #339 in the country in shooting percentage there, giving up more than 37% and 2) Providence is #233 in defensive three-point attempt rate, too. They’re letting this happen to them, to a certain extent, and I can’t help but wonder if selling out to stop two-point attempts is part of their problem. Heavy rotation inside to stop attacks on the rim leads to open guys on the wings and in the corners, open guys make shots really well, and allowing guys to be open leads to more shots from out there, too. A helpful clue on this topic? PC is also #283 in the country at giving up assists per field goal made, which may indicate they give up a ton of catch and shoot threes.
Will any of this matter in the slightest against Marquette? We’ll find out! After Friday night, Marquette is dead last in the Big East in offensive efficiency, more than a full point per 100 possessions behind DePaul, and they get there by ranking #9 in effective field goal percentage, #9 on two-point shooting percentage, and #9 in three-point shooting percentage. Providence can’t stop anyone — they don’t force turnovers and give up way too many second chances — but Marquette can’t burn anyone, not for a consistent stretch at least.
The Golden Eagles are also in possession of the third worst defense in the Big East because they’re not elite at forcing turnovers like they have been in Shaka Smart’s first few seasons and they don’t do anything else in an even mediocre fashion to balance that out. That’s not a great recipe for throwing a spike strip down in front of Providence’s high tempo offense — #15 in overall tempo, #22 in shortest average possession length per KenPom — so something wildly different than what we have been seeing and incredibly different than whatever the hell the second half against DePaul was will have to happen for Marquette to find a way to win on Monday evening.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 1-9 with losses in their last three games.
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Providence Last 10 Games: 5-5 with a win on Friday snapping a three game losing streak.
All Time Series: Marquette leads, 26-15.
Current Streak: Marquette has extended their winning streak against Providence to four straight after sweeping the season series last season.
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