Prior to getting into the meat of this week’s post, I wanted to add two disclaimers that many of you will probably deem unnecessary but for my own psyche, I am going to do it anyway.
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The entirety of the article is assuming that JoJo Romero is going to be traded before the regular season. Yes, I know what assuming can do, but I believe at this point Chaim Bloom has shown his understanding of the current situation and is doing his due diligence before accepting a deal. After “panicking” for the inactivity, I am back on solid ground and ready for Chaim Time to continue.
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Like Chaim, I also understand this is a rebuild. There have been a few comments in a couple previous articles pointing out that my desires for the team are not realistic during a rebuild. I am a fan first and still believe in the current talent, although it is lacking, of the majority of the roster, new decision makers, and Oli Marmol (insert jeers). While I know winning is not priority, I still crave competitive baseball with players getting their opportunity for proving themselves. I cannot support what the White Sox and Rockies had done, losing 100+ games on purpose, but if the Cardinals can hover 15 or less games under .500, I still anticipate plenty of fun and exciting games.
And with that, the main attraction.
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The St. Louis Cardinals and Chaim Bloom are officially full speed ahead in the rebuild after trading Nolan Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks. With that necessary deal being done, it sounds like things are heating up around Brendan Donovan, but I will put his future in St. Louis at a true toss up. Even with the major league team having talent stripped from the roster, I believe there is still plenty to be excited about or storylines to follow.
The bullpen of any team is always one for conversation, but those talks differ depending on the contending status of each team. For the Cardinals, their current reliever set up would be cause for concern for teams with playoff hopes, but in St. Louis, this alignment means opportunity abound across the board. Assuming JoJo Romero is dealt to one of those postseason hopefuls, reliever Matt Svanson’s role is one that will be one to keep an eye on this season.
Matt Svanson could be the closer of the future or Kyle Leahy 2.0
Matt Svanson was acquired by John Mozeliak at the 2023 trade deadline for Paul DeJong, which surely Cardinals Twitter took kindly to and would never once call it “another dumpster dive by Mo.” Svanson had put together a nice season at the time of the trade, but did so as a 24-year-old in High-A. He demonstrated quality strikeout and walk abilities while allowing less than a base runner per inning, leading to the Cardinals to push him right to Double-A Springfield when he arrived to his new organization.
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Svanson took well to his new team and level over 15 games, putting up a 3.00 ERA while still keeping his command and punchout stuff in his small sample. That momentum pushed into the 2024 season when Svanson really took off and became an interesting name to focus on for the future. Over 53 games, spanning 63.2 innings, Svanson took over the closer role for Springfield, closing 27 games with a 2.69 ERA. His peripherals took a hit, though, with his K/BB rate heading in the wrong direction, leading to a 3.93 FIP. That led to Svanson heading to the Arizona Fall League, where he was able to get his command back in order while playing in a lower stress environment against younger hitters.
Moving then to 2025, Svanson received an invite to major league Spring Training, but only received three innings of work before spending the rest of camp on the minor league side of things. He started the regular season in Memphis, but received his first promotion to the big league on April 16. Despite fine results in a mediocre bullpen, Svanson rode the Memphis shuttle multiple times during the season’s first half, totaling 26 innings over 17 games with a 3.12 ERA and showcasing his previous quality command and strikeout stuff.
The second half unlocked an even better version of the reliever with Svanson becoming a trusted part of the bullpen. After the All-Star break, Svanson pitched in 22 games and covered 34.1 innings of relief work while pitching in different situations. In those games, he put up a 1.05 ERA and a near 33% strikeout rate with opposing hitters totaling a .227 slugging percentage against him. For the year, the nearly-27-year-old went 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA (2.72 FIP) and a 29.1% K-rate.
Manager Oli Marmol was tasked with figuring out the best way to use a bullpen full of untested youngsters and that created opportunity to pitch in every inning except for the first two this season. As the Cardinals look into their best set up to win them however many games they do, the bullpen alignment figures to be a major part of whatever team success occurs this year. While he was called upon in any situation, Svanson’s strong first half made him a go-to guy later in the game. In his last 15 appearances, 13 of them came in the 6th inning or later. Over Svanson’s 39 games, 11 of them came when he had 0 or 1 day of rest, while 23 of his appearances were two days’ rest or less.
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That usage did not hurt Svanson’s overall efficiency, as he had a stronger second half than first. After the All-Star Break, he had a minuscule 1.05 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 34.1 innings of work. Svanson grabbed his second win of the season with two innings of scoreless work and then followed it up one day later with his first career hold. The fact that Svanson was able to maintain his workload while also increase his strikeout stuff after the break, ramping it up to a 32.1% K-rate after July.
When determining what Svanson’s best role is for the future, I looked at FanGraphs’ split that breaks appearances down into low-, medium-, and high-leverage situations. In his 60.1 innings, 42.1 were what were considered low-leverage spots, and that is where Svanson thrived (as to be expected when this was the bulk of his work). He held hitters to a .132 batting average, compared to a .217 average in 13.2 medium-leverage innings, and a .250 average in a small 4.1 frame sample size in high-leverage spots.
For next season, the Cardinals figure to have an opening in every meaningful role, with Romero being the player with the most closing experience and Kyle Leahy being moved to the rotation. For the 2026 Cardinals, winning is unfortunately not priority number one, so that closer role may be one that the team is not as eager to fill at this moment. Ryne Stanek could be someone that the Cardinals turn to for a temporary option in the ninth inning, but they could also turn to Svanson after he has shown the ability to handle the role in Springfield. That could provide long-term stability for the backend of the Cardinals’ bullpen, but betting on extended effectiveness for relievers is always a tough gamble.
Another factor that the coaching staff will have to take into account is how often Svanson would throw if he were to be a closer. The Cardinals are currently projected to win around 73.5 games next year, meaning there may not be a lot of save opportunities for whoever the Cardinals deem the ninth inning guy. Because of that, Svanson may best be utilized in the vacant Kyle Leahy role and be that guy who can pitch at any spot in the game. Leahy did that last season, making at least one appearance in every inning, including his spot start at the end of the year. In term’s of FanGraphs’ leverage meter, Leahy threw 52.1 of his 88 innings in medium- or high-leverage spots. He became the guy that Marmol could call on most everyday (36 of his 62 appearances came with two days of rest of less) when the team need to get out of a jam.
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In order to maximize Svanson’s value for this season, I would like to see him be that firefighter that Leahy turned into last year. Working against him, though, would be his groundball rate, which came in at 43% last season right around league average. If the Cardinals want to find a guy who can get a double play in a big spot, Svanson may have to use his sinker in a different way in order to get those grounders.
Regardless of where Svanson ends up out of Spring Training, the Cardinals have to be thrilled with what he has shown thus far. With a 97mph fastball and above-average breaking stuff, Svanson could stabilize that relief corps until a more solidified role for his future comes up.
