Last week ATS: 9-7 (3-5 National, 6-2 B1G)
Season ATS: 106-97 (47-50 National, 59-47 B1G)
Looks like I was really wrong about Texas and Alabama. The Longhorns didn’t put up much of a fight at Georgia, while the Crimson Tide kept shooting themselves in the foot against Oklahoma.
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Other than that, it was a pretty good week. Ohio State got back to normal business by covering against UCLA. The reward? Another massive spread this week as they host Rutgers!
Things ramp up even more next week with a bunch of important games on the schedule. Even though this week’s slate is lacking, we still found a healthy mix of games to try and add some wins to our season record.
National Games
No. 22 Missouri v. No. 8 Oklahoma (-7.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
If Missouri still had quarterback Beau Pribula, this might be a spot to target Missouri after Oklahoma’s emotional win last week at Alabama. Pribula is out for the season because of an injury suffered against Vanderbilt, leaving Matt Zollers to start for the Tigers.
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Zollers is still finding his footing after two starts, completing just 15 of his 37 pass attempts for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Last week against Mississippi State, Zollers didn’t have to do much since Ahmad Hardy ran for 300 yards and three scores against the Bulldogs.
I know for most of the season I haven’t had much confidence in Oklahoma. I guess last week made me a bit of a believer. Even though I still don’t think the Sooners are going to win the CFP, they likely have secured a spot in the playoff as long as they don’t lose to Missouri or LSU over the next two weeks.
The Oklahoma defense is for real and they should be able to handle Hardy since they shouldn’t have to worry much about Zollers.
Oklahoma 30, Missouri 14
Kentucky v. No. 14 Vanderbilt (-9.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Kentucky has been a thorn in the side of a number of opponents this year. Along with beating Florida a few weeks ago, the Wildcats were able to stay within a score of Ole Miss and Texas. The problem for Kentucky is those games all took place in Lexington.
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The Wildcats haven’t been nearly as pesky when they hit the road, and I’m not counting the 10-3 win at Auburn since the Tigers have been a dumpster fire this season.
Win two more games and you have to think Vanderbilt is in the College Football Playoff. The only losses for the Commodores came at the hands of Alabama and Texas. Even though the Auburn team that I just slandered pushed Vanderbilt to overtime in Nashville, all that really matters is Diego Pavia and company won in overtime.
Last week Vanderbilt had a bye week, which should have allowed them to recharge their batteries and take down the Wildcats by double digits.
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Vanderbilt 28, Kentucky 17
No. 11 BYU (-2.5) v. Cincinnati – 8:00 p.m. ET – FOX
All BYU has to do if they want to secure a rematch with Texas Tech is beat Cincinnati this week, as well as UCF next week. The Cougars bounced back from the loss to the Red Raiders by leaving no doubt against TCU, crushing the Horned Frogs 44-13 in Provo. Running back L.J. Martin is closing in on 1,000 yards this season, entering this week’s game with 912 yards and six touchdowns.
Cincinnati had a strong season going. Then November hit. The Bearcats were housed at Utah, followed by losing at home to Arizona last week. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has played his worst football of the season over the last two games, throwing three interceptions between the two losses.
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While the loss to the Utes was understandable, the setback against the Wildcats was inexcusable. It’s hard to see Cincinnati righting the ship against a disciplined BYU squad.
BYU 31, Cincinnati 20
B1G Games
Rutgers v. No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
This honestly might be the toughest Ohio State game to pick so far this year. There are so many unknowns heading into this week’s game.
Will Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith play? If they play, how long will they be out there? Will Ryan Day take out Julian Sayin earlier if the Buckeyes build a big lead? How much will Ohio State be looking towards the Michigan game?
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I’m sure if Day could play with an even slower tempo on offense to bleed the clock even faster on Saturday, he would do so.
In 10 previous meetings with Ohio State, Rutgers has never played a game against the Buckeyes closer than 19 points. The Scarlet Knights have some nice pieces on offense with veteran quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, running back Antwan Raymond, and a trio of wide receivers with at least 40 catches. Even though the defense isn’t quite as good as some of their past units, they do play hard for Greg Schiano.
I can’t remember a game this season where I didn’t pick against the Buckeyes. I’m going to break the streak this week since they can still win by 30 points and the Scarlet Knights would still cover.
While Rutgers isn’t going to come close to springing an upset, they do just enough to keep things within the number against an Ohio State team that just wants to turn their attention to next week’s game against Michigan.
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Ohio State 38, Rutgers 10
No. 15 USC v. No. 7 Oregon (-9.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
The Big Ten probably is hoping USC wins this game since it’s likely both the Trojans and Ducks would make the playoff, as both teams would have just two losses pending next week’s results.
USC actually showed a lot of grit in a 26-21 win in the rain over Iowa last week. The Trojans showing some toughness isn’t something I’m used to since they have been pretty soft over the last decade.
I’m just not convinced USC is tough enough to put a scare into Oregon at Autzen. Last week the Ducks decimated Minnesota in Eugene. Not only did Dante Moore throw for over 300 yards, Oregon ran for 179 yards against the Golden Gophers. Moore did his damage without a couple of his top receivers, which made the output even more impressive.
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USC might hang around in the first half, but the Ducks wear the Trojans down in the second half.
Oregon 38, USC 24
No. 18 Michigan (-13.5) v. Maryland – 4:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Luckily for Michigan they were playing Northwestern last week. The Wolverines made so many mistakes and still were able to clip the Wildcats at Wrigley on a walk-off field goal. As if losing running back Justice Haynes was tough enough to swallow, backup Jordan Marshall was injured against Northwestern.
Quarterback Bryce Underwood certainly doesn’t look like he is worth the money Michigan is spending on him. Good thing for Underwood is that he’s only a freshman so he has a lot of time to grow.
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In true Maryland fashion, once October hits the Terrapins turn back into a pumpkin. After a 4-0 start, Maryland has lost six straight games. The latest loss was a 24-6 defeat at the hands of Illinois. Even though they might be down a couple running backs, Michigan has to be licking their chops against a Maryland defense that just gave up 225 yards on the ground against the Fighting Illini.
Despite riding a six-game losing streak, I think Maryland could push the Wolverines a bit here since Underwood has been shaky, and the running back room is wounded. Much like Ohio State, Michigan is looking for a way to super sim this game so they can fully turn their attention to next Saturday’s clash with the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor.
Michigan 24, Maryland 13
Rapid Fire Picks
National
Louisville v. SMU (-2.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
SMU 35, Louisville 23
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Arkansas v. No. 17 Texas (-8.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Texas 31, Arkansas 21
Pitt v. No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Georgia Tech 38, Pitt 28
No. 20 Tennessee (-3.5) v. Florida – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Tennessee 30, Florida 17
B1G Games
Minnesota v. Northwestern (-3.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Northwestern 20, Minnesota 14
Michigan State v. Iowa (-16.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Iowa 34, Michigan State 10
Nebraska v. Penn State (-9.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – NBC
Penn State 27, Nebraska 13
No. 21 Illinois (-7.5) v. Wisconsin – 7:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Illinois 21, Wisconsin 7
Washington (-10.5) v. UCLA – 10:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Washington 38, UCLA 17
