Bowls ATS: 21-22 (15-15 National, 6-7 B1G)
Season ATS: 153-136 (80-72 National, 73-64 B1G)
Then there were three.
With all the non-CFP bowl games in the books, there are only three college football games left to be played. Unfortunately for Ohio State fans, the Buckeyes saw their dreams of winning back-to-back national titles come to an end on New Year’s Eve at the hands of Miami.
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While Ohio State will be watching a new champion crowned this year, the Big Ten will have a representative in the title game.
There have been a couple interesting trends from last year’s playoff that have carried over to this year. Teams with a first round bye are now 1-7 in the quarterfinals, as the only team with a bye to register a win has been Indiana.
Along with teams with a bye seemingly being at a disadvantage, seven out of eight teams to make the semifinals over the first two years of the 12-team playoff have been led by a quarterback they plucked from the transfer portal. The only team to have a “home grown” signal caller was Penn State last year with Drew Allar.
So far the bowl/playoff season has been a roller coaster. The playoff portion has yielded just a 3-5 record so far, but there was a pretty strong close to the bowl portion. At least with covers in the last three games, our record on the season will finish at 20 games over .500.
College Football Playoff Semifinal picks
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami (FL) (-3.5) v. No. 6 Ole Miss – Thursday 1/8 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
I have to give credit where credit is due. Miami came out in the Cotton Bowl and took it to Ohio State.
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Early on the Hurricanes wanted it more. Defensive linemen Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor were monsters, harassing Julian Sayin throughout the first half, not allowing the Buckeyes to get anything done on offense.
I can admit I was wrong about Carson Beck as well. It’s not that Beck was outstanding in the Cotton Bowl, but he did what he needed to do to lead Miami to victory. I was thinking the Ohio State defense would force Beck into a number of mistakes. Those miscues never materialize since Beck consistently made the right decision when throwing the football.
There’s a lot to like about Miami. Malachi Toney is a star at wide receiver, Mark Fletcher Jr. gains a lot of tough yards and running back, and the defense of the Hurricanes is filled with athletes who are playing with a ton of confidence.
I’m just not sure if I completely trust Mario Cristobal yet. Beating an Ohio State team with all the pressure on the Buckeyes is one thing. Taking down an Ole Miss squad with nothing to lose is something completely different.
I was really impressed with how Ole Miss played in the Sugar Bowl. After Georgia went up 21-12 I thought the Rebels were finally coming back down to earth. Then the second half happened. Ole Miss played with no fear, which is what won them the game. I say give Trinidad Chambliss all the college eligibility he wants since his game is perfect for college football.
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All I know is Pete Golding will be coaching the Rebels on Thursday night and that’s all I need to know. I’m sure Golding doesn’t even know who is still left on his coaching staff and who has already left for LSU. Ole Miss is playing with a chip on their shoulder.
At this point it doesn’t even feel like they care about winning the national title, they just want to rub it in Lane Kiffin’s face. In a game that feels like it’s going to come down to the last possession, I’ll gladly take the points.
Ole Miss 31, Miami (FL) 28
Peach Bowl: No. 5 Oregon v. No. 1 Indiana (-3.5) – Friday 1/9 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
After losing as the top seed in last year’s College Football Playoff, Oregon is trying to be this year’s Ohio State. After beating James Madison at home in a game that wasn’t anywhere close to as what the final score might indicate, Oregon left absolutely no doubt in the Orange Bowl, shutting out Texas Tech.
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What was most impressive about Oregon’s victory over the Red Raiders was the play of the defense. The Ducks only gave up 215 yards and forced four Texas Tech turnovers. Because of the domination by the defense, Oregon’s offense was able to wear down the vaunted defense of the Red Raiders by holding onto the football for 38 minutes.
After taking just a 6-0 lead into halftime, the dam burst in the second half and Dan Lanning’s team was able to pad their lead.
It wasn’t all rainbows and sunshine for Oregon in the victory. The Ducks left a lot of points on the table in the first half. Oregon had a number of drives that either stalled in Texas Tech territory or where they had to settle for field goals. While the Ducks might have been able to get away with some of the mistakes against Texas Tech, they certainly won’t be able to be so wasteful against Indiana.
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Right now this feels like Indiana’s title to lose. The Hoosiers steamrolled Alabama in the Rose Bowl, barely breaking a sweat in the victory over the Crimson Tide. Indiana had double the amount of first downs as Alabama did in the game, outgaining the Crimson Tide 407-193. It’s not even like Fernando Mendoza had to do much in the victory, completing 14 of his 16 pass attempts, with three of them being touchdown passes.
These two teams played in Eugene earlier in the year with Indiana surprising a lot of people at the time with a 30-20 win. Oregon tied up the score 20-20 early in the fourth quarter after a Brandon Finney Jr. interception return for a touchdown before the Hoosiers scored the final 10 points of the game.
The recipe for the victory over the Ducks was similar to what we have seen from Indiana in a lot of their bigger games this season. Control the clock, make smart decisions, and close out the game in the fourth quarter.
As tough as it is to beat a team twice in a season, I’m just not convinced Oregon can make enough corrections from the first game against the Hoosiers. There are games when Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness is a positive. Against Indiana it is a negative.
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While you have to take some risks to beat the Hoosiers, I feel like he is a little too reckless to win in this one. Plus, Indiana is loaded with a bunch of veterans who have played a lot of football, so they won’t wilt when the pressure is turned up. The Hoosiers feel like a team of destiny under Curt Cignetti.
Indiana 27, Oregon 17
