Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen: Odds, preview and prediction | UFC 320

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen will collide this weekend (Sat., Oct. 4, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC 320.

Dvalishvili is on track to be the fighter of 2025. Not only did he turn away Umar Nurmagomedov’s would-be rise to championship gold as an underdog, but he effortlessly beat up and submitted Sean O’Malley in their one-sided rematch. On the hunt for his third title defense in ten months, “The Machine” is running at absolute peak efficiency right now.

Sandhagen, conversely, is scoring his first undisputed title shot on the strength of just a single win, an absolute taking apart of former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. This moment has been a long time coming for “The Sandman,” who has honed and refined every aspect of his game over his half-decade as an elite 135-pound contender.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Betting Odds

Dvalishvili is quite possibly the best Bantamweight of all time almost entirely on the strength of his wrestling and cardio. He routinely traps opponents in a miserable cycle of getting taken down, working back up, and getting taken down again. Not only is it demoralizing and exhausting, but Dvalishvili seems to be improving at actually beating up his opposition throughout this process.

Closing the distance is a goal in every Dvalishvili fight, and it comes with risk against Sandhagen, who is both elusive and nasty with his intercepting knees and elbows. In his last bout, however, Dvalishvili really did great work against “Suga” on the feet, which is encouraging here. He needs to bring the same patience and active feints to inch towards Sandhagen then explode forward when the time is right.

Rushing forward could end disastrously, but cautious and consistent approach will get him to the legs.

Early takedowns are going to be important for Dvalishvili, as we’ve seen Sandhagen shell up in the past after being controlled for a bit. If Dvalishvili is able to convince Sandhagen to drop the volume, he’ll have a much easier time imposing his will and finding greater success over time.

Sandhagen is one of the most technical fighters on the roster. He’s an expert kickboxer who attacks all targets from both stances, and his defensive wrestling has come an incredibly long way since getting submitted by Aljamain Sterling back in 2020. On the floor, Sandhagen’s leg locks are perhaps the division’s best and could be an interesting method of countering Dvalishvili here.

I have one word to describe Sandhagen’s primary key to success here: aggression. Sandhagen has the skills to defend or escape Dvalishvili’s takedowns, attack his legs on the canvas, and pick him apart on the feet. The problem, however, is that Sandhagen doesn’t always bring the offensive intensity to the cage to match his technical prowess — that’s why he lost a ho-hum kickboxing match to Nurmagomedov even after shutting down the wrestling very effectively.

He cannot make that same mistake here! Sandhagen must always be attacking, working to break down Dvalishvili. One cannot hope to outlast “The Machine,” but Dvalishvili is not immune to the effects of hard body punches and chopping low kicks across a five-round fights. His knee ligaments are not made of carbon fire and could be torn by a heel hook to great effective. On the feet, Sandhagen should be looking for exchanges and chances to hit Dvalishvili on all levels, and when taken down, he should be still attacking with elbows and leg locks.

Punishment adds up. If Sandhagen is consistently offensive, Dvalishvili will start to look more human, and the technical gap will suddenly become much more of a deciding factor.

Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Prediction

I loathe picking fights like this, where one fighter definitely has all the skills necessary to pull off an incredible upset/win, but the question is whether or not they’ll put it all together. Such is the case here: an aggressive Sandhagen with the correct game plan should not only win but take apart Dvalishvili, and it’s easy for me to visualize that path to gold for the Colorado native.

The problem is I’m unsure Sandhagen’s game is equal to the sum of its parts. That Nurmagomedov loss is so concerning, because Sandhagen absolutely had the skills to win there as well but withdrew into himself after getting taken down and countered a couple times. He was unable to kick it into gear when it counted. Dvalishvili is perhaps the most demoralizing fighter on the roster, and I’m already unsure Sandhagen has the same willingness to take chances and go first that he did in his early UFC run. To beat Dvalishvili, Sandhagen has to combine his current technical improvements with the aggression of his younger career. Against such a physically imposing and relentless opponent, it feels more likely that he starts limiting himself and getting defensive.

I’ll keep my fingers crossed for the Sandhagen masterclass I know is possible, but more likely, it’s “AND STILL” at UFC 320.

Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 320 fight card, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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