As the Mets embark on an offseason that could include some needed shakeups, it can be argued that the most important thing they have to do is reshape the starting rotation.
It was the rotation more than anything else that resulted in the Mets going from 45-24 in June to out of the playoffs on the final day of the regular season.
Transforming the starting staff will be a bit complicated considering the amount of options already under contract for 2026, but it has to be done.
And the biggest part of that transformation should be adding a legitimate top of the rotation starter to the group.
Who should the main targets be?
The free agent crop
A bunch of pitchers with elite talent will hit the open market in about a month.
While signing one of them would be the easiest way for the Mets to address their need at the top of the rotation, huge deals in terms of both years and dollars for older pitchers rarely work out.
For an example of that, look at the Diamondbacks' signing of Corbin Burnes last offseason. Ahead of his age-30 season and with warning signs when it came to his declining strikeout rate, they inked Burnes to a six-year deal worth $210 million. He was pitching extremely well until June, when Tommy John surgery ended his season. It's possible Burnes misses the entire 2026 season, too.
There are some long-term signings to older pitchers that have worked, though, including the seven-year deal Max Scherzer inked with the Nationals ahead of his age-30 season in 2015.
But there are no Scherzers out there now. Instead, the top of the free agent market features Framber Valdez, Michael King, and Ranger Suarez.
Valdez, who turns 32 in November, has been a workhorse over the last four seasons, posting a 3.21 ERA across 767.2 innings. While he's never been an advanced stats darling, there is some serious cause for concern there. There was also a troubling moment in September, when Valdez seemingly intentionally crossed up his catcher in order to hit him with a pitch.
King, who will be entering his age-31 season in 2026, was tremendous for the Padres in 2024 as he transitioned from relieving to starting. But he made just 15 starts in 2025 as he dealt with a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder and a knee injury.
Suarez, who turned 30 in August, might be the safest bet — but he's also the least imposing. He has allowed 8.6 hits per nine during his eight-year career (he gave up 154 in 157.1 innings in 2025), is not a big strikeout guy, and has never thrown 158 innings or more in a season.
Translation? The Mets should look to the trade market, where these pitchers could be available…
Sandy Alcantara
It's true that the Marlins — who finished 79-83 this past season and have a strong group of starting pitchers — should be aiming higher than that in 2026.
It's also true that they dangled Alcantara at the trade deadline.
And it's safe to say that he has more value to them via trade this offseason than he does as an expensive member of a starting rotation that has tons of young talent — including Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, and Ryan Weathers.
Alcantara is under contract through the 2026 season, when he'll earn $17.3 million. Miami also has a club option for 2027 that's worth $21 million. For reference, the Marlins' entire Opening Day payroll in 2025 was $67.2 million ($86 million when taking CBT purposes into account).
So it stands to reason that Alcantara will be available this winter — and the Mets should have tons of interest.
After shaking off the rust this season following his return from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara had a 3.13 ERA in 77.2 innings over 12 starts from July 23 through the end of the season — tossing 7.0 innings or more on seven occasions.
Joe Ryan
Ryan had the best season of his career in 2025, posting a 3.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while striking out 10.2 batters per nine in a career-high 171.0 innings.
He has always missed lots of bats (his career strikeout rate is 10.1 per nine) and his four-seam fastball (which he uses about half the time) has graded out as one of the best in baseball each of the last four seasons.
The big question here is whether the Twins would trade Ryan, who has two more years of arbitration remaining and will be very inexpensive (he made just $3 million in 2025).
In the midst of an incredibly disappointing 2025 season, Minnesota had a fire sale, trading 10 players from the big league roster. That included Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, and elite closer Jhoan Duran, who — like Ryan — has two more years of arbitration remaining and will be wildly inexpensive in 2026 (he made just $1.3 million this past season).
The Twins can definitely get a haul for Ryan this offseason, and it would behoove them to cash in as they embark on some form of a rebuild.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal is set for free agency after 2026, so the Mets — and any other team expecting to contend next season — should be on the Tigers' case about him.
Would it be surprising if Detroit traded the best pitcher in the American League fresh off back-to-back Cy Young seasons? Perhaps.
But what makes this intriguing is that when the Tigers attempted to extend Skubal, it was reportedly a non-competitive offer. And owner Christopher Ilitch gave a bit of a weird answer earlier this month when asked about a possible Skubal extension. The 28-year-old left-hander is repped by Scott Boras.
Even with just one year left on his deal, it would likely take a King's ransom to pry Skubal from Detroit.
And if the Tigers determine that they're all but certain to lose him after 2026, trading him could be in their best interest.
Paul Skenes
This wouldn't just be a moonshot. It would be like attempting to land on Mars.
But until the Pirates show that they're serious about spending enough to build a winning team around Skenes, the idea of them trading him won't end.
Given Skenes' ability, age, and contract situation, the cost would be astronomical.
He has four years of team control remaining, won't be arbitration-eligible until after the 2026 season, and made just $875,000 in 2025.
In a world where Pittsburgh makes Skenes available, the Mets — with one of the best farm systems in baseball — would possibly have as good a shot as any team to land him.
