Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is less than one month away. The Michigan Wolverines are riding high following a 91-80 drubbing of Purdue on Tuesday, and all signs point to the Wolverines receiving a 1-seed come Selection Sunday. However, everyone knows being a 1-seed doesn’t guarantee you anything in the NCAA Tournament.
With that in mind, we wanted to explore which teams the Wolverines do and don’t match up well with among the top four seed lines. There’s no doubt Michigan will be prohibitive favorites in each of the first two rounds, but the Sweet Sixteen is when things start to get interesting. This will be an early guide to which teams Michigan fans should want to see in their region and which teams they shouldn’t want to see at all.
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Teams Michigan matches up well with
Florida Gators
The Gators are on a heater of late, winning six straight games and climbing to No. 6 in the KenPom rankings. BracketMatrix has them as a 3-seed as of now with plenty of time to climb higher. While they have ample size to match up with Michigan in 6-foot-11 Alex Condon, 6-foot-10 Rueben Chinyelu and 6-foot-9 Thomas Haugh, the Gators are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country at 29.4 percent. Chinyelu doesn’t shoot threes, while Condon shoots a decent amount but is just 13 percent on the season. A matchup with Florida would allow Aday Mara to stay on the floor the majority of the game and clog up the paint ruthlessly.
Michigan State Spartans
I enjoy being able to place the Spartans in this category, but we’ve already seen this play out once this season. Sixty percent of their starting five can’t shoot the three-ball well in Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr and Carson Cooper. The key to beating Michigan is having bigs that can shoot and stretch the floor; Michigan State is just about the opposite of that. The Spartan offense is designed around getting to the rim at all cost. The Wolverine defense is specifically designed to stop that.
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Vanderbilt Commodores
BracketMatrix currently has the Commodores as the second-highest 4-seed, but they’ve benefitted from a relatively weak schedule. Vanderbilt hasn’t beaten anyone in the KenPom top-25 and also just don’t have the size to matchup with Michigan. Jalen Washington (6-foot-10) is the only player in the rotation taller than 6-foot-7, meaning Mara will have at least a five-inch advantage on every opponent. Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles have been fun to watch, but this doesn’t feel like a team capable of knocking off the Wolverines.
Who Michigan doesn’t match up well with
Iowa State Cyclones
The keys to beating Michigan, in my estimation, are to shoot lights out from three and to speed the Wolverines up to cause turnovers. Check and check for this Iowa State team.
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The Cyclones are shooting 39.8 percent from deep, good for fourth in the country and by far the highest of the main contenders. As for turnovers, Iowa State has a defensive turnover percentage of 22 percent, ranking eighth in the country, per KenPom. While Iowa State is certainly beatable, this is a team Michigan would want to avoid.
Illinois Fighting Illini
We’ll see how this plays out next week, as the Illini host Michigan in what could be a conference championship clinching game. However, this is not a team the Wolverines want to see. Illinois has the requisite size to match up with Michigan in 7-foot-2 Zvonimir Ivisic, 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic and 6-foot-9 David Mirkovic — they lead the country in average height. On top of that, seven of Illinois’ eight players in their rotation have hit 25 or more three-pointers this season. Star freshman Keaton Wagler is firing on all cylinders. With a little luck, this is an Illinois team that could certainly win it all.
Houston Cougars
If you know anything about Kelvin Sampson, you know his teams play energetic, rabid defense at the point of attack. That’s no different this year, as the Cougars have the No. 7 defense on KenPom and are ninth in the country at generating turnovers. Joseph Tugler, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp all rank highly in steals, and the team is first in the country in turnover percentage. Lastly, 6-foot-10 freshman Chris Cenac gives them a legitimate big man who can stretch Mara out a bit — he’s shooting 35.8 percent from three. While Houston is likely to be in a different region than Michigan, this is a team that would pose some problems.
