• What: Michigan State vs. Indiana
• When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Peacock and NBC Sports Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 85 (MSU broadcast), 390 (Indiana broadcast)
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• Records/Rankings: MSU is 14-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten, and enters the week ranked No. 12 in the Associated Press poll, No. 13 in the USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 14 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 13 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Indiana is 12-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten, and unranked in both major polls. The Hoosiers are No. 35 in the NET rankings and No. 27 per Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -5.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 751-304 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Indiana — Darian DeVries is 181-72 in his eighth season as a head coach. This is DeVries’ first season with the Hoosiers, after one year at West Virginia and six seasons at Drake before that.
• Series: Indiana leads 74-59 all-time. The Hoosiers won the only meeting last season, 71-67 on Feb. 11 at Breslin Center.
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Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10..3
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 14.3
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.6
SG (99) Divine Ugochukwu (6-3) 5.2
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 12.1
Indiana
C (4) Sam Alexis (6-9) 7.1
F (12) Tucker DeVries (6-7) 14.9
F (3) Lamar Wilkerson (6-6) 20.6
G (5) Conor Enright (6-1) 4.6
G (6) Tayton Conerway (6-3) 12.3
• MSU update: The Spartans wrap up a three-game home stand Tuesday against the Hoosiers, before heading west for games Saturday at Washington and next Tuesday at Oregon. This is the toughest test of MSU’s three straight home games. The Spartans are the No. 3 team nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and No. 1 in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing opponents an offensive rebound on just 22.3% of field goal attempts, while hauling in 39.7% of their own misses. Jaxon Kohler’s ever-rising 3-point percentage, now at 53.3%, is No. 8 nationally and No. 1 in the Big Ten among players who attempt at least two 3s per game. Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the country in assist rate (percentage of MSU’s made buckets that he assists on while on the court) at 49.9%. He’s second in assists per game, averaging 8.8.
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MORE: Couch: Michigan State basketball’s untapped potential begins with Jordan Scott and Cam Ward
• Indiana update: The Hoosiers are coming off an 83-77 home loss to Nebraska, who’s beating everybody. Indiana had won two straight Big Ten games before that, beating Washington and winning at Maryland. In December, the Hoosiers lost at Minnesota and bludgeoned Penn State at home, 113-72, on a day Lamar Wilkerson made 6 of 7 3s and scored 44 points. Wilkerson had 32 points on Saturday against the Huskers. Indiana’s other common opponent with MSU is Kentucky, which beat the Hoosiers, 72-60, in Lexington in December. Indiana is a top-30 offense, per Kenpom, and also top 10 in effective field goal percentage defense.
• Matchup analysis: You won’t recognize this Indiana team, beyond the uniforms and candy-striped warmup pants. New coach, new roster. Lamar Wilkerson, a Sam Houston State transfer, is making 3.5 3-pointers per game, which leads the Big Ten. Tucker DeVries, who came with his dad from West Virginia, is tied for third-most 3s in the Big Ten at 2.8 made per game. MSU has to make these guys work for their shots. The challenge is Wilkerson and DeVries are playing the wing and power forward in an offense that is essentially one big — Sam Alexis or Reed Bailey — around four guards/wings. That’ll create some defensive challenges for the Spartans, with Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Cam Ward having to guard the perimeter. The good news for the Spartans is, unless Nick Dorn is in the game, Indiana’s guards around Wilkerson and DeVries are not scary outside shooters.
• Prediction: I think MSU will be locked in and refreshed after a weekend without playing and an uninspiring performance against Northwestern last Thursday. Indiana is capable of winning this game, if Wilkerson goes wild from beyond the arc. But MSU is good enough defensively to get this done.
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• Make it: MSU 82, Indiana 76
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Coch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Indiana prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
