Michigan State basketball vs. Maryland tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

• What: Michigan State vs. Maryland

• When: Noon Saturday

• Where: Breslin Center

• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 84 (MSU broadcast), 385 (Oregon broadcast)

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• Records/Rankings: MSU is 17-2 overall and 7-1 in the Big Ten, and is ranked No. 10 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls, No. 11 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Maryland is 8-10 overall and 1-6 in the Big Ten, and unranked in both major polls. The Terrapins are No. 149 in the NET rankings and No. 114 per Kenpom.

• Betting line: None available yet

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 754-304 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Maryland — Buzz Williams is 381-238 in his 19th season as a head coach. This is his first season with the Terrapins after stops at Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Marquette and New Orleans.

• Series: MSU leads 17-7 all-time, winning the only meeting last season on a last-second shot by Tre Holloman in College Park.

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Projected lineups

MSU

C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.5

PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 13.3

SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.2

SG (99) Divine Ugochukwu (6-3) 5.2

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 13.2

Maryland

C (13) Elijah Saunders (6-8) 9.1

F (11) George Turkson (6-7) 1.5

G (1) Darius Adams (6-5) 12.6

G (12) Isaiah Watts (6-3) 5.4

PG (8) David Coit (5-11) 15.4

• MSU update: The Spartans come home from the West Coast having won five straight. They’re one of four teams with one loss in the Big Ten standings (along with Michigan, Purdue and Illinois), all behind unbeaten Nebraska. In terms of travel, this is probably a more difficult game than the games at Washington and Oregon, because the Spartans flew back overnight Wednesday and have a two-day prep on punch-drunk rest before an early game Saturday. If you lose this game, that’s the complaint. In reality, it’s plenty of time for a group of 20-year-olds to adjust and be fresh. MSU point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has scored at least 14 points in each of the past seven games, averaging 17.3 points during that stretch. He’s also No. 3 nationally in assist rate. This is the MSU player alumni weekend, which is always an important game to Izzo.

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MORE: Couch: Coen Carr knew Izzo had his back. Carr’s response at Oregon shows he has more to give.

• Maryland update: The Terrapins are having a season as miserable as Oregon is — with a similar record (8-11 overall, 1-7 Big Ten), having lost leading scorer and Minnesota/Texas A&M transfer Pharrel Payne to a leg injury 10 games in. Maryland is coming off a badly needed 96-73 home win over Penn State on Sunday and an 89-70 road defeat at Illinois on Wednesday night, which was the Terrapins’ fifth loss in six games and 10th loss in 13 games. They don’t have a single top 100 win (via Kenpom) and have a recent home loss to Oregon (No. 89) and an early home loss to Georgetown (100). Outside of an eight-point loss at Virginia on Dec. 20 — which is the Terrapins’ best result this season — their other 10 losses are all by double digits.

This is an entirely new roster from last season’s Maryland team, which also lost coach Kevin Willard to Villanova. There are a couple familiar names, however — former Indiana guard Myles Rice, who comes off the bench for the Terrapins and freshman starting guard Darius Adams, who MSU recruited last spring to replace Jase Richardson.

• Matchup analysis: Maryland’s issues are on both ends of the court. In Big Ten play, the Terrapins are 16th in the league in offensive efficiency, 13th in 3-point shooting and 17th shooting from inside the arc, per Kenpom, made worse by also being second-to-last in turnovers and free-throw shooting. On the other end, they’re 16th in 3-point defense and 15th in 2-point defense. They do rebound the ball well — they’re top four in the Big Ten on both the offensive and defensive glass in league play.

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MSU has faced Maryland point guard and leading scorer David Coit before, when he was a reserve at Kansas last season. He dropped 43 points on Penn State last weekend and 30 against USC in the game before that. He can score from long range, including off the dribble, and against contact at the rim. He’s hitting 40% of his 3s this season and takes about seven per game. Big man Elijah Saunders also shoots better than 40% from deep and takes more than three 3s per game. Darius Adams is less of a threat from long range. He’s taken more than four per game, but is shooting 26%.

Buzz Williams had some good defensive teams at Texas A&M, teams that could protect the rim and switched well to the point you had to have guards who could beat them over the top or one-on-one. This Maryland team doesn’t have the personnel to be nearly as effective as his last group with the Aggies.

• Prediction: If MSU plays with good energy and keeps Maryland’s couple capable shooters in check, the Spartans should win this one without a late sweat. Fears on Coit will be an interesting and fun matchup. But MSU has a number of advantages, beginning with being a way more connected team offensively, with a better lead facilitator in Fears. That shows in one telling stat — the Spartans are No. 3 in college basketball in assists-per-made-basket at 67.1%, while Maryland is near the bottom of the sport at No. 336, with just 44.6% of the Terrapins’ buckets coming off an assist.

• Make it: MSU 81, Maryland 62

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MORE: Couch: By transforming MSU Athletics, J Batt hopes to build a sustainable enterprise — and winning football

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Coch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Maryland prediction, preview, TV info, betting line