The Kentucky Wildcats open their home SEC slate tonight when they play host to the Missouri Tigers at Rupp Arena.
The Tigers come in following a two-point win over Florida, while the Wildcats look to move on from a poor showing on the road against Alabama. Still, the Wildcats are 8-1 at home this year and are expected to win by double digits.
Advertisement
See why I’m expecting a low-scoring affair in my Missouri vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks below.
Missouri vs Kentucky prediction
Missouri vs Kentucky best bet: Under 150 (-110)
When the Missouri Tigers got blitzed by Illinois last month, the Tigers shot just 27% from downtown and 29% from the field. They also got run out of the gym early by an Illinois team that made 15 shots from beyond the arc and led by 16 at the half.
That’s not the kind of profile team they’ll face with the Kentucky Wildcats, a team that doesn’t shoot particularly well from beyond the arc. Still, the Wildcats defend well, ranking 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive rebound rate.
Advertisement
The Tigers shoot the ball well from the outside, but much of that success has come against Quad-IIII teams. In their four games against Q1 opponents, they’ve connected on just 27 of 92 attempts from beyond the arc. The Wildcats defend the 3-point line fairly well, especially at home.
That’s worth noting because Missouri’s struggled away from home this season. It’s also their first true road game in five weeks, which should lead to a bit less scoring output.
On the flip side, Kentucky’s not a team built to take advantage of Missouri’s biggest weakness — the 3-point defense. The Tigers rank 286th in opponent shooting percentage from deep and 341st in 3-point rate, with opponents taking nearly 47% of shot attempts from long range.
In addition, the Wildcats continue to have at least one long stretch in every game where they can’t find points. The offense isn’t consistent when Jaland Lowe is off the floor, and Mark Pope refuses to simply stick with the players performing the best.
Advertisement
In four games against Q1 opponents, Missouri is averaging 63.8 points. They also play at one of the slower tempos in the SEC. Combine that with Kentucky’s outside shooting woes and inconsistent offense, and we should see the Under hit — just as it has in four of Missouri’s last five, and in seven of Kentucky’s last 10.
Missouri vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Mouhamed Dioubate is one of Kentucky’s best rebounders, with an offensive rebound rate of 13.2%. The Tigers rank 111th in defensive rebound rate despite nine wins against Q4 teams, and the Kentucky big man just pulled down four second-chance boards against Alabama.
Mark Mitchell is a matchup nightmare, with the 6-foot-9 swing hitting outside shots one second and slashing to the rim the next, but he’s also been dishing the rock with consistency, averaging 2.9 assists per game. He’s got three dimes in three of his last four games and should get a few more tonight with the Wildcats looking to force the ball from his hands.
Advertisement
Missouri vs Kentucky SGP
-
Mouhamed Dioubate Over 5.5 rebounds
-
Mark Mitchell Over 2.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Under and out
I think Kentucky wins this game comfortably, but 13 points is a lot to give up against a team that’s capable of shooting the deep shot as well as Missouri does.
Missouri vs Kentucky SGP
-
Mouhamed Dioubate Over 5.5 rebounds
-
Mark Mitchell Over 2.5 assists
Missouri vs Kentucky odds
-
Spread: Missouri +13 | Kentucky -13
-
Moneyline: Missouri +600 | Kentucky -900
-
Over/Under: Over 150 | Under 150
Missouri vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has cashed the first-half Under in 15 of its last 23 home games for +5.9 units and a 22% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Missouri vs Kentucky
|
Location |
Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
|
Date |
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 |
|
Tip-off |
7:00 p.m. ET |
|
TV |
ESPN2 |
Missouri vs Kentucky key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Advertisement
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
