MLB awards week is just around the corner, with four awards up for grab in both leagues. Some of these eight races are foregone conclusions, their winners decided long ago in the warmth of summer. Others remain mysteries, toss-ups that likely came down to the wire.
As a reminder, voting is conducted by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). Two members from each of the 15 local chapters (effectively, one for each team) vote on each award. Voters rank 10 candidates for MVP, five for Cy Young and Rookie of the Year and just three for manager of the year. I am a proud dues-paying member of the BBWAA; however, I did not vote for any of the awards this season.
The three finalists for each award were announced Monday and are listed here in alphabetical order. Let’s go award by award, in order of most to least settled, and break it down.
American League Rookie of the Year
Finalists
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Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox
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Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
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Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
There’s Nick Kurtz, and then there’s everybody else. The Athletics’ DH debuted on April 23, less than a year after he was selected fourth overall in the 2024 draft, and proceeded to deliver an all-time rookie season. Kurtz treaded water for his first month in the show, hitting just one homer and OPSing .558 across 85 plate appearances. Then he caught absolute fire and never looked back.
From May 24 through the end of the season, Kurtz was essentially the best hitter on Earth, clobbering 35 homers with a gaudy 1.100 OPS. That included a four-homer game on July 25, the first in Athletics franchise history. Kurtz, who doesn’t turn 23 until March, is already a legitimate middle-of-the-order monster. He should win this award unanimously.
For much of the first half, though, Kurtz’s teammate Wilson looked like the AL ROY front-runner. The son of former MLB shortstop Jack Wilson burst onto the scene with a hot start built upon his fascinating, contact-over-power profile. He didn’t reach double-digit strikeouts until May 15, carried a .339 batting average into July and earned the starting nod at shortstop for the American League. He would’ve been a worthy Rookie of the Year if not for Kurtz.
Had Anthony debuted earlier — he didn’t arrive until June 9 — or not missed all of September due to an oblique injury, he might have been able to keep better pace with Kurtz.
National League MVP
Finalists
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Shohei Ohtani, TWP, Dodgers
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Kyle Schwarber, DH, Phillies
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Juan Soto, OF, Mets
Ohtani will win unanimously, making him just the second player in the sport’s long history to capture four MVP Awards. Only Barry Bonds, with seven, will have more. Ohtani’s offensive numbers backed up ever so slightly compared to his 2024 MVP season, in which he hit .310 and stole 59 bases, but the final statline was still downright preposterous. And, crucially, he returned to the mound this year, tossing 47 innings of 2.87 ERA ball. As long as Ohtani keeps doing the two-way thing at this level, he has a shot to track down Bonds.
There was a brief period over the summer where Schwarber got ungodly hot, igniting MVP discussions around the stout DH. That tailed off as the season reached its end, but it shouldn’t take anything away from Schwarber and his 56 home runs. The same is true for Soto, who rebounded from a slow start and an All-Star snub to finish his first season in Queens with trademark Soto numbers.
National League Manager of the Year
Finalists
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Terry Francona, Reds
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Pat Murphy, Brewers
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Rob Thomson, Phillies
The Brewers got manhandled by the Dodgers in an NLCS romp, but that wasn’t Murphy’s fault. Milwaukee’s refreshingly blunt, charismatic, one-of-a-kind skipper will likely become the first back-to-back NL Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox in 2004 and 2005. This award is so dependent on expectations and the surpassing of them that it’s simply difficult to surprise enough to win it two straight years. But that’s what Murphy and his rag-tag group of misfits accomplished by leading MLB in wins.
Francona sneaking the Reds into October and Thomson capturing another NL East title for the Phillies were both impressive feats, but this is Murphy’s to lose.
American League Cy Young
Finalists
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Hunter Brown, Astros
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Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
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Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Skubal, who led the AL in strikeout rate and ERA, should win his second consecutive unanimous Cy Young. Remarkably, that would make the Tigers’ ace the first American League hurler to go back-to-back since Hall of Famer Pedro Martínez did in 1999 and 2000. At this point, Skubal is squarely The Best Pitcher in The World, something another Cy Young award will further cement.
Crochet, however, wasn’t far behind. In his first year with the Red Sox, the bald southpaw led the American League in innings with a worse-than-his-peripherals 2.59 ERA. Notably, he notched more strikeouts than Skubal (and every other pitcher on the planet). But Crochet was more walk-prone and homer-prone than his fellow lefty, which probably leaves him with the silver medal. Brown was phenomenal this year for the Astros, but all his tallies trail those of his counterparts.
National League Cy Young
Finalists
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Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies
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Paul Skenes, Pirates
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
This one will be Skenes, though maybe not unanimously. Sánchez finished with about 15 more innings pitched in the identical number of starts and filled in admirably as the Phillies’ ace once Zack Wheeler went down. That bulk and durability, to go along with a crisp 2.50 ERA, could be enough to swipe a first-place vote or two. If ballots had been cast after October, Yamamoto, based on his postseason heroics, might also be in the mix. But his regular-season numbers, though robust, are a tick behind Sánchez and Skenes (Yamamoto threw nearly 30 fewer frames than Sánchez).
Here’s a very simple way to highlight how special Skenes’ 2025 was. Since integration in 1947, there have been 26 pitcher seasons with at least 30 starts and an ERA under 1.97. Skenes’ season featured the third-best strikeout-to-walk ratio of that group, behind only Jacob deGrom in 2018 and Sandy Koufax in 1963. Skenes is a monster. He’s still only 23 years old. This probably won’t be his last Cy Young, so get used to this.
American League Manager of the Year
Finalists
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John Schneider, Blue Jays
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Stephen Vogt, Guardians
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Dan Wilson, Mariners
Schneider probably isn’t going to win. When that happens, many people north of the border are going to be very mad. But it’s important to remember that every single award gets voted on before the postseason. Now, that’s probably stupid in regard to this award, considering how important managerial strategy is in the playoffs. If the voting took place now, Schneider would be the runaway favorite after deftly guiding the Jays to within one win of the title. Wilson, on the other hand, flopped in October with some questionable bullpen decisions, including, crucially, Game 7 of the ALCS. Vogt, whose Guardians snuck into October with a thrilling, late-season charge, got only three postseason games to strut his stuff.
Usually, this award goes to the manager whose team most over-performed preseason expectations. Under that simple formula, Schneider would probably be the pick. But does the fact that Toronto won the division only on the final day hurt him? What about Wilson, who won the franchise’s first division title in what felt like a millennia? Vogt, last year’s winner, clearly did the most with the least by shepherding the Guardians to an all-time September comeback. You could make an argument for any one of this trio.
National League Rookie of the Year
Finalists
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Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
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Caleb Durbin, 3B, Brewers
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Cade Horton, SP, Cubs
This probably comes down to Horton and Baldwin, making this something of a straightforward debate between pitcher and position player.
Let’s start with Horton, whose finish to the season was downright sensational. The dude had a 1.03 ERA over his last 12 starts (61 ⅓) innings, making him one of the best pitchers in the league over that stretch. His unavailability due to a rib issue doomed Chicago’s postseason run before it even began. The argument against Horton would center on his relatively low innings total (118.0) and start total (23). Still, he had the fourth-lowest ERA in the wild-card era by a rookie who made at least 20 starts, behind only Hideo Nomo, Paul Skenes and Jose Fernandez. That’s impressive company.
Baldwin made the big-league club straight out of camp and was, wire to wire, the NL’s best rookie offensive performer. The catching situation in Atlanta — Baldwin split time with vet Sean Murphy and was blocked at DH for the most part by Marcell Ozuna — limited his playing time, as he finished with just 97 games started and 446 plate appearances. Yordan Álvarez is the last hitter to win Rookie of the Year with fewer than 100 games started. Ohtani did it in 2018, but, well, he pitched, too, so that’s a weird one.
You have to think the various Brewers rookies — Durbin, Isaac Collins, Chad Patrick, even Jacob Misiorowski — split the vote. That won’t help Durbin, the fist-shaped, grit-and-grind third baseman who exemplified Milwaukee's unrelenting, slash-and-dash, dirt-on-the-jersey style of play. That he’s a top-three finisher is a remarkable accomplishment for a Division III player drafted out of Washington University in St. Louis.
American League MVP
Finalists
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Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
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Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners
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José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
Here we have what could be one of the closest MVP races of the century, but first, a few words on Ramírez, who won’t win but deserves a lifetime achievement award of some sort. (I suppose that’s what the Hall of Fame is.)
The Cleveland infielder is already fifth on the all-time MVP share leaderboard among players without an MVP. He’s behind a quartet of Hall of Famers: Al Simmons, Bill Terry, Eddie Murray and Mike Piazza. Depending on how the voting shakes out, he could leap to first or second on the list. That’s to say, statistically, Ramírez is tracking like the greatest ballplayer in MLB history to never win an MVP.
Back to the main event: Judge vs. Raleigh.
It’s historic levels of sustained offensive brilliance against an all-time power-production season from the game’s most demanding defensive position. There is, in my opinion, no wrong answer. Both choices are defensible. Both players will receive a lot of votes. It could swing either way. Judge might’ve tipped the scales with a scorching final week; he was 9-for-20 with seven walks and four homers in his final two series. But Raleigh’s home run total starts with a six! A six! No catcher had ever come close to that mark. Plus, the Mariners overcoming the Astros in the last week of the season doesn’t hurt his case. This one will come down to what 30 specific people thought.
