Welcome to September. By the end of this month, the playoffs will have started. We’ve been keeping track all year of what it means to hold a division lead entering any month, and there’s no question that it’s of more importance now than ever.
If your favorite team isn’t leading now but still has postseason aspirations, they’d better figure it out soon or be vying for a Wild Card spot.
Let’s take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division and what the playoff field may look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place (or not be there)
Since 1996 — the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league — 136 of 168 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering September 1. That’s 81 percent of division winners.
There has not been a season since 1996 where none of the division leaders entering September went on to win their divisions that year. In other words, history tells us that most of the six current leaders — the Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers — will win the division. But not necessarily all of them.
Last year was the seventh time in this span that all six eventual division winners led entering September. It also happened in 2021, 2019, 2017, 2002, 2001 and 1999.
For those with comebacks in mind, the Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the largest division lead entering September for a team that did not win that division is 7 1/2 games by the 1995 Angels, who missed out on the playoffs entirely when the Yankees won that year’s Wild Card and the Mariners won the division.
Largest division lead Entering September, did not win division (Since 1969)
What about eventual World Series winners? Since 1996, 18 of the 28 World Series winners, again, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering September.
Of this year’s current division leaders entering September, four were in this spot last year — the Astros, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers. With the NL, this is just the third time since ‘96 that all three division leaders in a league entering September were the same in consecutive seasons. It also happened in the AL from 2017-18 with the Red Sox, Cleveland and Astros and in the NL from 2016-17 with the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers.
The Blue Jays last led entering September in 2016 and the Tigers last in 2013.
The four that led last year all went on to win their divisions. The Blue Jays last won the AL East in 2015 and the Tigers last won the AL Central in 2014.
There’s no longer plenty of baseball to be played. The baseball that’s left, it’s going to be among the highest of stakes. This is 28 days of important games. If your team is currently in playoff position, there’s a lot of evidence for optimism. And if your team isn’t, just know that we’ve seen plenty of September comebacks, all things considered.
