Skubal’s name has been a popular one at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, where the Tigers ace is one of the most intriguing trade candidates of the offseason.
According to two rival executives, the belief within the industry is that the Tigers will not trade Skubal this offseason despite the fact that he is going into his final year of control prior to becoming a free agent.
“I would be surprised if he was moved,” a National League executive said. “But that doesn’t mean teams aren’t going to try.”
Skubal has arguably been the best pitcher in the game over the past two seasons, going 31-10 with a 2.30 ERA in 387 1/3 innings over 62 starts. He earned $10.15 million in 2025 and will be due a healthy raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility, but his 2026 salary isn’t the reason the Tigers would consider trading him.
It’s the salary he’ll be seeking beginning in 2027.
Assuming he remains healthy and posts another big season in 2026, Skubal’s free-agent deal next winter could wind up being the biggest in history for a starting pitcher. If Detroit doesn’t believe it can (or will) be able to re-sign him, then president of baseball operations Scott Harris will have to weigh the pros and cons of keeping him or trading him.
On one hand, holding on to Skubal greatly increases the Tigers’ chances of reaching the postseason for a third straight year, while a trade would return a haul of players and prospects that could help Detroit stay competitive for years to come. If the Tigers keep Skubal and he signs elsewhere next offseason, Detroit will only receive draft-pick compensation for his departure.
“It’s going to take an enormous offer to get the Tigers to even consider it,” an AL executive said. “Maybe one of the biggest ever for a player on an expiring contract.”
Which team could potentially try to make such an offer?
“I think the Mets will go hard after him,” an NL executive said. “They have to make the playoffs next year.”
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke about the importance of having a true No. 1 starter, and while he wasn’t asked specifically about Skubal, it seems like pursuing an ace-type pitcher is a real possibility.
“I think if a front-line pitcher, top-of-the-rotation pitcher is available, we’re going to be involved in those discussions,” Stearns said. “There are limits to what we would do, as there would be for any player. But we do have the depth and quality of a farm system at this point that we can both have those players impact our Major League team in a real way and potentially trade some of them to get some really near-term help if that’s available.”
While there has been a lot of buzz surrounding three Japanese-born players that are expected to sign free-agent deals with Major League clubs this offseason, there are a couple of former big-league pitchers who are already generating interest after spending the past few years pitching in Asia.
Right-hander Cody Ponce and left-hander Foster Griffin did not experience great success during their first go-around in the Majors, but both pitchers have excelled overseas, putting them in position to return this offseason as free agents.
“You’ve got the top tier of the native Japanese free agents is kind of one class of player,” said Pirates GM Ben Cherington, referring to right-hander Tatsuya Imai and infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto. “Then there’s this other class of player that goes to Japan or Korea, improves and comes back.”
Ponce pitched 20 games (five starts) for the Pirates in 2020-21, posting a 5.86 ERA over 55 1/3 innings. Griffin made seven appearances for the Royals and Blue Jays in 2020 and 2022, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in eight innings.
Ponce went on to pitch for two teams in Japan from 2022-24, experiencing mixed results with a 4.54 ERA in 202 innings. Last year, he moved to Korea, where his stuff ticked up, helping him post a 1.89 ERA in 180 2/3 innings for the Hanwha Eagles. Griffin pitched 315 2/3 innings over the past three seasons for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, posting a 2.57 ERA thanks to the development of two new pitches.
Now, both pitchers are expected to return to the Majors, where they hope to carry their success from abroad. Teams scout players in Asia all the time, and according to executives who have seen them, both Ponce and Griffin look far different than they did during their time in the big leagues.
“Ponce wasn’t quite ready to be a sustainable big-leaguer here, then goes over and now he’s a guy,” Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold said. “I think a lot of guys mature over there in a way where it’s like, ‘Hey, I have to survive in a foreign country and do what I can to get people out.’ They learn how to pitch. Cody Ponce has always had really good stuff; now he learned how to get people out.”
“They’re different pitchers now,” Cherington said. “You have to assess them in their current state and do the best you can to translate that.”
In some ways, scouting players in Japan or Korea can be very similar to doing so in the Majors, as qualities such as velocity, spin rate, pitch shapes and strike-throwing are easy to measure. Trying to gauge how pitchers will fare against better competition in the Majors, on the other hand, can be more difficult.
“You want to try to evaluate guys apples to apples,” Arnold said. “In a lot of cases, that’s really tricky, especially when they’re overseas. It adds another layer.”
“It’s more art than science,” said Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall. “There is a little bit of a leap of faith; you’re taking a guy who is in a different league in a different country and coming back here. Is this going to work in the big leagues?”
