The American League East has kept the Hot Stove burning this offseason, and there’s little reason to think that will let up as January gets underway.
Even with the flurry of moves we’ve already seen, the division could ultimately hinge on what happens in free agency over the coming weeks.
Reunion possibilities continue to loom over the AL East. Three of the top four position players on the market are coming off stints with teams in the division — shortstop Bo Bichette with the Blue Jays, third baseman Alex Bregman with the Red Sox and outfielder Cody Bellinger with the Yankees — and the door remains open for all three to return.
Bichette’s path back to Toronto is the most complicated of the three. At this point, the Blue Jays’ starting infield looks fairly settled, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first, Ernie Clement at second, Andrés Giménez at shortstop and new addition Kazuma Okamoto at third. That said, the sense around the industry is that Toronto is looking to make another offensive splash. If Bichette does re-sign with the Blue Jays, it would likely be as a second baseman, with either Clement or Okamoto moving into a super utility role.
Bregman and Bellinger have clearer routes back to Boston and New York, respectively. The Red Sox have first baseman Willson Contreras and shortstop Trevor Story locked into starting roles, but second base and third base are in flux. Former top prospect Marcelo Mayer is currently penciled in at the hot corner, but Boston could slide the 23-year-old over to second if Bregman were to return.
Adding intrigue to this situation is how much these markets intersect, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees prominently involved on multiple players.
The Yankees are believed to be prioritizing Bellinger, but if they aren’t able to seal the deal with the 30-year-old, they could pivot to Tucker. Speaking of Bellinger, he could be an option for the Blue Jays if Tucker were to sign elsewhere.
Toronto has been connected to Bregman as well — though the addition of Okamoto could make him less of a fit — and Boston is considering Bichette alongside Bregman in its search for an infielder. The Red Sox would likely use the 27-year-old Bichette at second base.
The Yankees can’t be ruled out as a destination for Bichette, either. A recent entrant into the Bichette sweepstakes, New York is reportedly fielding trade inquiries for pending free agent Jazz Chisholm Jr., the team’s current starter at second base. Dealing Chisholm to address other needs and then signing Bichette to replace him isn’t out of the question for the Bronx Bombers.
The AL East set itself apart in 2025 — the Blue Jays (94) and Yankees (94) tied for the second-most wins in MLB, and the Red Sox joined them in the playoffs with an 89-73 record. It was also the only division without a 90-loss team. No matter what happens the rest of this offseason, it’s likely to maintain its status as MLB’s toughest division from top to bottom.
The Blue Jays have stayed aggressive after falling inches short of a World Series title, signing starter Dylan Cease to this winter’s richest contract to this point (seven years, $210 million) and also adding pitchers Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers before landing Okamoto. But Toronto knows firsthand how quickly things can go south. The team came in last place two years ago after averaging more than 90 wins across 2021-23.
The Yankees posted their 33rd consecutive winning season in 2025, but they struggled against the Blue Jays in both the regular season and the playoffs — and the gap has only widened this offseason. With their World Series drought at 16 seasons and Judge entering his age-34 campaign, the team faces mounting pressure to upgrade its roster.
The same goes for the Red Sox, who are looking to avoid a step back toward mediocrity after making progress in 2025. Boston’s ownership has faced criticism in recent years for its perceived reluctance to compete with MLB’s top spenders, and emerging from this offseason without a marquee free-agent signing would only add to that scrutiny — especially after creating significant payroll flexibility by trading Rafael Devers to the Giants in June. Granted, the Red Sox did acquire Contreras and Sonny Gray in separate trades with the Cardinals, but St. Louis kicked in a lot of cash as part of those deals.
While the Yankees and Red Sox try to keep up with the Blue Jays, the Orioles have done a lot to put themselves back in the division-title conversation. Coming off a last-place finish, Baltimore has been baseball’s busiest club this offseason, adding Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge and re-signing Zach Eflin. The core that contributed to a 91-win season as recently as 2024 is also still largely in place. And another major rotation addition is a possibility, with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez among the potential options.
Even the Rays can’t be overlooked. Although they declined Pete Fairbanks‘ club option and traded away Baz, Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum in a pair of deals that brought back a haul of prospects, their free-agent agreements with veterans Steven Matz and Cedric Mullins indicate they still intend to compete in 2026. They should remain in the Wild Card mix at the very least.
As for who might be the division favorite? It’s still too early to tell. The Blue Jays look like the frontrunners right now, but with so much left to sort out in free agency, the AL East’s balance of power could still shift dramatically.
