MLB free agency: Why every team will or won’t sign Munetaka Murakami

We are less than a week away from the deadline for free-agent Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami to agree to an MLB contract, with his 45-day posting window closing at 5 p.m. ET Monday. Murakami ranks sixth on our Top 50 free agents list on the basis of his rare youth for a free agent (he turns 26 in February) and his spectacular track record of slugging in NPB.

But doubts about his ability to make enough contact to succeed against MLB pitching and concerns about his defensive fit — Murakami has mostly played third base but is projected by most evaluators as a first baseman or DH — have made him a particularly polarizing member of this year’s free-agent class. There’s a range of opinions on whether Murakami’s tantalizing power potential is a worthy gamble considering the pitfalls in his profile, especially if a significant financial outlay is required to sign him.

As the debate regarding Murakami’s outlook in the majors has persisted among both outside observers and industry insiders, his Dec. 22 deadline has approached with minimal buzz regarding which teams are likely to sign him. In fact, MLB Trade Rumors — the gold standard of up-to-the-minute hot stove news and notes — has published exactly one Murakami post since he was posted on Nov. 7, and that was a fan poll three days later asking where he’ll sign. This lack of reported interest isn’t entirely uncommon among top free agents at this stage of the offseason calendar, but Murakami’s deadline adds some urgency to his free agency. Unlike Framber Valdez or Bo Bichette or Kyle Tucker, who can linger on the open market for months, Murakami cannot play the waiting game — decision time is coming soon.

Yet without much in the form of reported connections between Murakami and any teams — and without a sense of what Murakami is prioritizing as he prepares to make the jump to MLB — we’re left to speculate on where he could land based on two primary factors: His positional fit on the roster and teams’ likelihood/willingness to spend what it will take to sign him. The latter element is more difficult to ascertain, considering the range of what a potential Murakami contract could look like. Because of his youth, it’s possible Murakami and his representatives are interested in a shorter-term deal that enables him to reenter free agency after proving himself in MLB. That might be an alluring option if there’s a dearth of teams offering a long-term deal worth nine figures, the kind much of the industry projected for Murakami at the outset of the offseason. Then again, it’s possible Murakami’s market is more robust than we realize, and an enormous contract commensurate with some of the other elite free agents is imminent.

All we know is that we don’t know a whole lot. So with that air of mystery in mind, let’s embrace the uncertainty and canvass the entire major-league landscape in search of a landing spot for Murakami. Here’s a snapshot look at why he might or might not make sense for all 30 MLB clubs, organized by division and 2025 finish.

Jump to a team by clicking on the links below:

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto chased Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki in free agency, only to watch both sign with the Dodgers; does Murakami represent a more realistic opportunity for Toronto to land a Japanese star? We know the Blue Jays are willing to spend, considering the contracts they’ve already doled out this winter (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers) and their reported interest in retaining Bo Bichette and pursuing Kyle Tucker. But with a seemingly rejuvenated George Springer under contract for another year and having just signed Anthony Santander last winter, the Jays adding another high-dollar DH-type feels unlikely right now, and we know first base is spoken for.

New York Yankees

This would send a jolt through the Bronx amid an otherwise uneventful offseason so far, but it’s tough to see the fit on the roster at this juncture. Giancarlo Stanton remains entrenched at DH, and New York appears intent on Ben Rice getting every-day at-bats, with first base the most logical spot for that. While Murakami fits the style of slugger the Yankees have historically coveted, it’s hard to envision him emerging as a logical target for New York.

Boston Red Sox

President of baseball operations Craig Breslow has been active on the trade market this winter but has yet to sign a major-league free agent, making the Red Sox one of just two teams that has yet to do so. That said, it’s clear Boston has a lot of irons in the fire, whether that’s a reunion with Alex Bregman, a major trade from its outfield surplus or dealing from its pitching depth to land a big bat such as Ketel Marte.

Any interest in Murakami would be impacted by not only Bregman’s staying or going but also how confident the front office is in first baseman Triston Casas in his return from injury and another lefty Japanese hitter in Masataka Yoshida, whose presence on the roster is something of a quandary but who remains the projected DH. The Red Sox are a team that, afforded more time to consider Murakami and reconfigure their roster accordingly, could make sense as a landing spot. But the ticking clock makes it tricky.

Tampa Bay Rays

Never say never, of course, but the Rays emerging as the highest bidders in this process would be an especially flabbergasting outcome.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore pursued Kyle Schwarber before successfully landing Pete Alonso, and that’s after trading for Taylor Ward. That should conclude the Orioles’ search for offense this winter; they need arms, badly. Murakami ain’t it.

Cleveland Guardians

We can firmly put Cleveland with Tampa Bay and a few other frugal franchises in the “I’ll Believe It When I See It” category for a major free agent. Not happening.

Detroit Tigers

Beyond a failed pursuit of Alex Bregman last winter, we’ve yet to see this Tigers front office exhibit a willingness to spend big in free agency, instead preferring to hand out short-term contracts and lean on the internal improvements of homegrown players to advance the franchise. You can squint and see a roster fit for Murakami here if Kerry Carpenter moves to the outfield full-time, but Detroit hasn’t signed a player from NPB since pitcher Masao Kida in 1999, so the Tigers would need to overcome a lack of history in this market to land a Japanese player of this stature.

Kansas City Royals

DH is a modest need for the Royals right now, even with Salvador Perez expected to spend less time catching moving forward. But Kansas City is another club with almost zero track record of signing players from NPB, and first base is a no-go with Vinnie Pasquantino locked in. Pass.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins just signed Josh Bell to play first base, and amid some restructuring at the ownership level, a major investment such as this wouldn’t seem to be in the cards right now.

Chicago White Sox

Adding Murakami would be a fun way to inject some much-needed excitement on the South Side and would offer Murakami a lower-stakes setting to adjust to major-league pitching, but it would also be a sizable risk that this front office (and ownership group) is probably uninterested in taking at this stage of their rebuild.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners moved quickly to retain Josh Naylor as the franchise’s first baseman early in the offseason, but two other key members of Seattle’s run to the ALCS are not coming back, with Jorge Polanco finding a new home with the Mets and Eugenio Suarez expected to land elsewhere in free agency.

That leaves some uncertainty at both third base and DH, which could be addressed in part by a pursuit of Murakami. But the Mariners have prioritized cutting down on swing-and-miss in their offense recently, and spending big on a whiff-prone slugger such as Murakami would be an enormous departure from that organizational shift in philosophy. If the price is right and some of the other candidates to upgrade the lineup come off the board in the next couple of days, perhaps Murakami emerges as an alluring alternative for Seattle. But as a top-tier target for this front office, I’m not sold Murakami fits the bill.

Houston Astros

Houston is already juggling a roster crunch at Murakami’s potential positions with Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez, so adding another bat-first player is illogical.

Texas Rangers

Texas’ money maneuvering via nontenders and its trade of Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo do not hint that the Rangers are eager to make a sizable free-agent investment right now. And with Joc Pederson under contract for another season and Jake Burger projected at first base, Texas is reportedly more focused on other needs at the moment.

Athletics

If the A’s have a glowing perception of Murakami as a defender and a sudden urge to spend big, there’s room at third base for what would be a stunning addition. But Nick Kurtz and Brent Rooker have first base and DH fully covered in Sacramento, so don’t count on this surprise.

Los Angeles Angels

Despite the lack of team success during his time there, Anaheim turned out to be the perfect place for Shohei Ohtani to transition to MLB and prove to everyone that his rare talents could flourish at the highest level. If Murakami wants a similarly comfortable environment in which he can navigate the expected developmental hurdles without the intense scrutiny of playing for a contending team in a major market, the Angels could be a sensible landing spot — if owner Arte Moreno is willing to offer the requisite contract.

That said, finances aside, the positional fit isn’t that clean. Third base is fairly unsettled as the Angels put the disastrous Anthony Rendon era behind them, so this could be one of the few places where Murakami could begin his career at the hot corner instead of moving across the diamond immediately. But first base is occupied by one of their core young hitters, Nolan Schanuel, and DH duties are expected to increasingly be handled by Mike Trout as his days in the outfield dwindle.

Where will Munetaka Murakami and his prodigious power be playing next year?

(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)

Philadelphia Phillies

Murakami could’ve been an intriguing backup plan had Kyle Schwarber departed in free agency, but Philadelphia is surely happy to have the known quantity back in the fold atop the lineup, with Bryce Harper still anchored at first base. Trade rumors continue to swirl around Alec Bohm, but even if the Phillies move on from Bohm, that would surely be for a far more proven third baseman than Murakami.

New York Mets

Murakami might not fit the archetype of a player president of baseball operations David Stearns would pursue as he looks to reshape the roster, and the addition of Jorge Polanco narrows the path for another first base or DH-type to be added to an already crowded position-player group. But if there is any team that can literally afford to swing big on a boom-or-bust free agent such as Murakami, it’s the team with the wealthiest owner in the sport and a roster already in the middle of a full-blown makeover.

Steve Cohen flexing his financial advantage to massively outbid the field for Murakami might seem reckless if it’s the Mets’ biggest move this offseason, but if it’s an aggressive swing for superstar upside that complements a series of other floor-raising additions (such as Polanco) and proven commodities, that’s exactly the kind of flashy transaction that could reenergize this fan base for the next era of baseball in Queens.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins are one of three teams, along with Houston and Colorado, that have never signed a Japanese player directly from NPB. This would be a hell of a time to make history in that regard, but based on their thrifty signing of Christopher Morel to reportedly handle first base, I’m not holding my breath.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been plenty active in free agency thus far, but Matt Olson and Austin Riley render the corner infield unavailable for additions, and with two catchers in need of playing time in Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, the DH spot isn’t especially welcoming, either.

Washington Nationals

With a new front office, Washington appears far more focused on overhauling its infrastructure and coaching staff than making dramatic additions to its major-league roster. While the Nationals could use upgrades at third base, first base and DH, the timing doesn’t feel right for an investment of this ilk.

Milwaukee Brewers

Adding a free agent of this magnitude would be highly uncharacteristic of how Milwaukee operates, but the Brewers can at least point to an example of a successful NPB-to-MLB transition occurring on their roster in Nori Aoki — and not that many teams can say that!

Chicago Cubs

If Seiya Suzuki spends more time in the outfield in the wake of Kyle Tucker’s expected departure, DH would appear to be a need for the Cubs. But like a lot of other cautious clubs nowadays, it seems Chicago would prefer to leave room for an uptick in regular at-bats for its own young players — in this case, Moises Ballesteros and Owen Caissie — rather than spending big on an external addition who could block their development. Plus, the Cubs haven’t exactly been throwing money around in free agency recently.

St. Louis Cardinals

With Sonny Gray the first out the door and several other veterans expected to follow in trades for prospects, St. Louis is focused on subtracting major-league pieces with an eye toward the future, rather than adding aggressively in free agency.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds reportedly made a real run at local product Kyle Schwarber before he chose to stay in Philadelphia, but everything coming out of Cincinnati since then suggests that was a rare exception to the team’s unusual business practices. Don’t expect the Reds to suddenly be handing out nine-figure contract offers to free agents with aplomb.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh had interest in Schwarber, reportedly offering a four-year, $125 million deal that would have shattered the franchise’s previous record for a free-agent contract. If the Pirates are willing to stretch the budget for the first time in a long time and are chasing offensive upside to complement a legitimately good pitching staff headlined by Paul Skenes, why not consider Murakami? Considering the complete lack of firepower in the current lineup — including glaring holes at DH and third — the Pirates might have good reason to pursue Murakami as aggressively as they did Schwarber, especially with his age better aligning with their up-and-coming roster.

That said, teams with smaller payrolls face elevated risks when swinging big in free agency. Whereas the Mets and Dodgers can more easily shrug off bad contracts and spend around them, for a team such as the Pirates, the wrong player accounting for a huge portion of the payroll could have far more dire consequences. All that said, Pittsburgh is an intriguing sleeper here, if not for Murakami then perhaps for another one of the big free-agent bats still available.

Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s understandable that the earliest reports of Murakami’s intentions to come stateside were met with bemoaning from 29 other fan bases that he would surely join his fellow Japanese superstars on the Dodgers, but that makes little sense considering what L.A. has locked in at DH (Shohei Ohtani), first base (Freddie Freeman) and third base (Max Muncy). If Murakami reenters free agency in a few years after proving himself in MLB, and Freeman and Muncy have moved on? Sure, he could definitely be a Dodger. But not right now.

San Diego Padres

Reports indicate that the Padres likely need to shed payroll before making any significant financial investments this offseason. But if San Diego is able to unload some salary in a trade or two — and if it can conjure up a creative contract offer that limits the upfront financial burden for the club — Murakami’s fit on this roster is as clean as any across the league, given the Padres’ glaring holes at DH and first base crying out for an influx of upside (with all due respect to Gavin Sheets’ modest late-career breakout).

The Padres have a particular need for over-the-fence power, having ranked 28th in home runs in 2025, and general manager AJ Preller has been chasing star power his entire career. Even factoring in the risks, Murakami could represent a unique opportunity to extend this team’s contention window with another impact talent potentially entering his prime and flip the narrative that this winter is all about downsizing for San Diego.

Arizona Diamondbacks

While Arizona has made some surprising free-agent splashes and there is arguably room to upgrade at DH, 1B and 3B — the D-backs’ reported interest in Alex Bregman confirms as much — a match with Murakami doesn’t quite line up right now.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have already invested a boatload of money in their infield, with huge financial commitments made to Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers, who is expected to play first base. Would San Francisco invest heavily in Murakami if they already have an heir apparent at DH in top prospect Bryce Eldridge, who is five years younger with similar power and swing-and-miss concerns? Probably not. But if Eldridge is traded, this could be an intriguing fit.

Colorado Rockies

Murakami launching balls at altitude would be a treat to watch, and there’s plenty of room on this barren depth chart for an impact bat. But coming off a 119-loss season and amid a complete overhaul of the front office, pursuing a signing such as this wouldn’t seem to be a priority for Colorado right now.

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