The MLB regular season is still about seven weeks away — but we want to know what’s going to happen now!
Projection systems can give us a hint of what’s to come, and the desire to know the future in the present burns eternal. So, it’s time for even more projections!
In this story, we’ve spotlighted the rookies who are projected to accrue at least 1.4 FanGraphs WAR this season according to Steamer. Why such a random endpoint? Although 14 rookies made the cut, it has nothing to do with symmetry. We promise it will make sense when we get there.
1. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Blue Jays (2.5 WAR)
One of the key additions in Toronto’s offseason shopping spree, Okamoto arrives in the Majors with six 30-homer seasons on his Nippon Professional Baseball resume and a .277/.361/.521 career slash line. The projections aren’t quite that bullish, but 22 dingers and a .769 OPS would make for a pretty good debut season. His projected 112 wRC+ would make him the Blue Jays’ fourth-best offensive player, behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (153), George Springer (123) and Alejandro Kirk (122). Okamoto’s 2.5 WAR — tied with the likes of James Wood and Roman Anthony — also makes him the only rookie to rank among the top 100 position players.
2. Trey Yesavage, RHP, Blue Jays (2.2 WAR)
Yep, the reigning AL pennant winners possess the top two projected rookies. While Okamoto is a newcomer to the big leagues, we’ve already seen the 22-year-old Yesavage dominate on the grandest stages. Now after a year that began in Single-A and ended with record-breaking performances in the postseason, what does the right-hander have in mind for a follow-up? Steamer projects that Yesavage will keep ringing up the K’s in bulk, with 162 of them in 146 2/3 innings. That 9.9 K/9 rate ranks among the top 20 starters. He is also in line for a 3.79 ERA across 34 appearances (24 starts).
T-3. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians (2.1 WAR)
DeLauter is the rare player who already knows what it’s like to compete in the playoffs without any regular-season experience. That should change very soon as DeLauter could make Cleveland’s Opening Day as either a center fielder or a corner outfielder. Injuries have limited the 2022 first-round Draft pick to just 138 Minor League games and no more than 57 in a single year, so forecasting his immediate future can be a tough task, but Steamer is pretty optimistic about his ability to stay on the field in 2026. DeLauter is projected for a .252/.326/.408 slash line with 14 homers in 118 games and 497 PAs.
T-3. JJ Wetherholt, 2B, Cardinals (2.1 WAR)
From one rookie who may make his regular-season debut on Opening Day to another who is almost certain to be starting. The Cardinals’ trade of Brendan Donovan leaves second base wide open for Wetherholt, MLB’s No. 5 prospect and the favorite among baseball executives to win National League Rookie of the Year. He has hit everywhere he has been in the Minors, resulting in a .304/.418/.487 career slash line. In the Majors, he’s projected to have a .255/.341/.392 slash with 10 home runs in 105 games. Wetherholt’s 2.1 WAR trails only Masyn Winn (3.8) and Iván Herrera (2.2) on the Cards.
T-5. Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets (2.0 WAR)
McLean looked every bit like an ace during his 48-inning introduction last season, and he is expected in some ways to at least be the Mets’ second-best starter in ’26. His projected 3.71 ERA over 149 frames would be second on the staff to David Peterson’s 3.65. The rookie’s 3.92 FIP would tie Freddy Peralta for the rotation lead. McLean’s 8.5 K/9 rate would be closer to his Minor League output (9.7) than what he did during last year’s small sample (10.7). Still, having this arm around for a full season should pay big dividends for the Mets.
T-5. Munetaka Murakami, INF, White Sox (2.0 WAR)
As MLB.com’s David Adler has pointed out, Murakami’s 2026 projection stands out. Namely, his 30 home runs. Only 17 players are expected to reach the big 3-0 this year, and Murakami’s 557 plate appearances are the fourth fewest of that group. His 118 wRC+ is the best on the White Sox. However, his high swing-and-miss rates in Japan are cause for concern, and those are baked into his projections, too. Steamer calls for the left-handed slugger to post a 28.9% K rate. That’s the third highest among hitters with at least 500 PAs, behind the Reds’ Eugenio Suárez (29.5%) and White Sox teammate Colson Montgomery (29.2%).
T-7. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates (1.8 WAR)
The Pirates’ latest elite pitching prospect, Chandler is set to be rotation mates with reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes come Opening Day. Once Chandler was called up last August, he struck out 31 batters and walked only four over 31 1/3 innings. With his fastball that can touch triple digits and a high-whiff changeup, he should pile up plenty of strikeouts in his first full season. Steamer projects 146 K’s over 160 1/3 innings for Chandler. However, there will probably be more frequent bouts of spotty control for a pitcher who walked 53 batters in 100 Triple-A innings last year. Steamer gives him 63 walks allowed, a 4.31 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
T-7. Logan Henderson, RHP, Brewers (1.8 WAR)
Henderson would likely be ineligible for this list if not for some misfortune. He logged a 1.78 ERA across 25 1/3 innings and five starts last year — four in April/May, one in August — before right elbow inflammation effectively ended his season on Aug. 8. He should have been part of Milwaukee’s playoff run. Instead, he was left to rehab — and retain his rookie eligibility. This year, Henderson is projected to toss 145 2/3 innings in 41 appearances (23 starts), have a 4.17 ERA and strike out 143 batters.
T-7. Tatsuya Imai, RHP, Astros (1.8 WAR)
One of the best pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason, Imai signed with the Astros in the wake of a splendid three-year run with NPB’s Saitama Seibu Lions: a 2.18 ERA with 495 strikeouts over 470 innings. He’ll need to be effective for a Houston rotation dealing with the departure of Framber Valdez, but the projections state that Imai’s rookie year in MLB will have its fair share of growing pains. He’s slated to have a 4.37 ERA over 153 innings and strike out less than one batter per inning. Imai is also projected to allow 20 homers; he gave up a total of 25 home runs from 2023-25.
T-10. Carter Jensen, C, Royals (1.5 WAR)
Jensen, a Kansas City native and MLB’s No. 2 catching prospect, had nine extra-base hits, a .300 average and a .941 OPS in his first 20 big league games last year. Obviously, Salvador Perez is still strong behind the dish, but no matter if Jensen is catching or at designated hitter, he’s expected to be a force this summer. The 22-year-old is projected to be the Royals’ fifth-best position player by WAR, tied with Perez at 1.5, despite the fact that Steamer has Jensen playing in only 77 games (Perez is projected to play 135 games). Some of the youngster’s stats include 10 home runs, 26 XBHs and a 104 wRC+.
T-10. Robby Snelling, LHP, Marlins (1.5 WAR)
The Marlins’ offseason trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers have left a lot of opportunities for the franchise’s younger arms to prove themselves. There is no shortage of options, including left-hander Thomas White, who ranks higher on the Top 100 Prospects list (No. 17) than Snelling (No. 39). However, Snelling was Miami’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2025, and Steamer projects that he will end up getting an extended look in the rotation. He’s marked down for a 4.04 ERA through 120 innings (21 starts). By comparison, White is projected to make 11 starts with the Marlins, spanning 64 2/3 frames.
T-13. Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Pirates (1.4 WAR)
We made 1.4 WAR the cutoff for this story because we had to make room to talk about the best prospect in baseball. Griffin is still a teenager for a couple more months and has just one professional season under his belt, but it’s possible that he is on the Pirates’ roster come Opening Day. If so, he would be just the fifth player to make his Major League debut on Opening Day while ranked as the No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Steamer projects Griffin to play in just 79 games but still make a sizeable impact — eight homers, 13 steals and the fourth-best position-player WAR on the team.
T-13. Parker Messick, LHP, Guardians (1.4 WAR)
If we’re going to make room for Griffin and his 1.4 WAR, we have to do the same for Messick, who recorded a 2.72 ERA over 39 2/3 innings and had a 38:6 strikeout-to walk ratio in his first taste of the Majors last year. Armed with a five-pitch arsenal, Messick will compete for a rotation spot this spring, and Steamer believes that even if he doesn’t get it, he will still spend the majority of the season with Cleveland. The southpaw is projected to make 23 starts and register a 4.06 ERA across 129 innings.
Honorable mentions: Sal Stewart, INF, Reds (1.3 WAR); Dylan Beavers, OF, Orioles (1.1 WAR); Hunter Barco, LHP, Pirates (1.0 WAR); Samuel Basallo, C/1B, Orioles (1.0 WAR); Justin Crawford, OF, Phillies (1.0 WAR)
