We have just one month left. Can you believe it? I am not sure I can. It feels like it was just Spring Training. And now here we are.
We’ve got so much left to figure out in the season’s final month. Here’s a look at six big questions September will answer.
1) Can Cal Raleigh get to 60? And win an MVP?
The Mariners’ catcher has already set the all-time record for home runs at his position, and he’s just one hot week away from catching Ken Griffey Jr. atop the Mariners’ single-season home run leaderboard. But only six human beings — Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Aaron Judge, Roger Maris and Babe Ruth — have reached the 60-homer plateau, and the Big Dumper has a very real chance to do so. Pretty incredible for a guy whose previous career high was 34, no? Raleigh and Judge look like they’re going to be neck-and-neck for the MVP award — Raleigh just finally passed Judge in our MLB.com rankings this month — but if Raleigh can get to 60 and get the Mariners to the playoffs for the second time in 24 years … it might be impossible to deny him.
2) Can we conjure up any sort of Wild Card race?
When the Mets and Yankees struggled through the first half of August, you wondered if anyone — the Reds or Cardinals in the National League, maybe the Guardians or the Royals in the American League — would take advantage and try to barge into the Wild Card race. That has not happened, and now that the two New York City teams appear to have mostly righted their respective ships, we might be in danger of not having much of a Wild Card race at all. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, all of them are at 90 percent odds or higher of making the playoffs. Seeding matters, of course, but it would be nice to see someone put together a late run to make one of these teams sweat a little bit. The Royals and Rangers have a chance, and don’t count out the Reds in the NL. But they all better get going quick.
3) Who’s going to win the Wests?
The teams in first place heading into Labor Day are the teams we are used to seeing here. The Dodgers lead the NL West, a division they have won 11 of the past 12 seasons. The Astros lead the AL West, a division they have won seven of the past eight seasons. (And the one they didn’t was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, a season they finished in the AL Championship Series.) But the teams chasing them are perhaps the ones most desperate to beat them. The Padres are the Dodgers’ perpetual little brother in Southern California, one that was extremely aggressive at the Trade Deadline to put together the precise roster they need to take out the Dodgers, in both the standings and, hopefully, in October. Meanwhile, the Mariners haven’t won a division title since 2001 and feel like they might have their best team since that record-setting roster. These are the two divisions that are the tightest so far. There’s no reason to think anyone will be pulling away anytime soon.
4) Can the Blue Jays hang on in the AL East?
No matter what happens in the AL East: This season has been a smashing success for the Toronto Blue Jays. (Barring a total collapse down the stretch that knocks them out of the playoffs, which is exceedingly unlikely but at least theoretically possible.) This was a franchise that appeared to be at the abyss a year ago, in danger of losing star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and looking for all the world like their competitive window was about to close after an era in which they didn’t win a single postseason game. And then … they swept a four-game set against the Yankees in early July, took over first place and haven’t looked back since. But now that they’re here, finishing off the season with their first division title since 2015 (and only their second since 1993) very much needs to be the priority. If this team can earn a first-round bye and set up their formidable rotation (now fortified with Shane Bieber) for the AL Division Series, winning that division title could just be the start of the fun.
5) Who’s going to take control of the AL Cy Young?
Most of the award races seem pretty settled — Paul Skenes, Shohei Ohtani and Nick Kurtz should clear out some space on their mantles — but it’s absolute madness in the AL Cy Young race. The Tigers’ Tarik Skubal is the defending champ and has had a fantastic season, one that, won-loss record aside, might be better than what he did last year. But the Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet has matched him nearly pitch for pitch, and I mean that almost literally. Here are their numbers:
Skubal: 2.28 ERA, 182 ERA+, 2.27 FIP, 210 strikeouts, 166 IP
Crochet: 2.40 ERA, 173 ERA+, 2.63 FIP, 214 strikeouts 172 /13 IP
If you do pay attention to win-loss record, that’ll help Crochet’s case, but otherwise, these two are so close that September might well decide it.
6) Can the Brewers finish their greatest season ever?
The past 15 years have been quite lovely for the Brewers’ fanbase. Their three winningest seasons ever, 2011, ’18 and ’21, have all taken place in the past decade and a half, and of the franchise’s 10 postseason appearances, eight occurred in those past 15 years. But they’ve never had a season like this one. Their current win percentage of .615 is the highest in their history, and they’re on pace for 100 wins. If they can get there — and they need to go 17-10 the rest of the way to do so –they’ll be the first Brewers team to reach the number, and they’ll surpass the Brewers’ all-time top single-season win total by a full four games. Now, that’s not all the Brewers want out of this season — getting to their second World Series, and their first in 44 years, is the immediate goal, and maybe they’ll win their first title while they’re there — but 100 victories would be the ultimate indicator of just how historic a season the Brewers are having.
