The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kick off this weekend at Darlington. Who will emerge nine weeks later at the championship race is anyone’s guess.
An educated guess, but still a guess.
It almost doesn’t matter what type of season anyone has had, thanks to the format where four drivers enter Phoenix on equal footing with the driver who finishes the best ending up as the champion.
But this year even more so. No driver has been a dominant car from week to week.
William Byron won the Daytona 500 but then didn’t win again until a few weeks ago at Iowa. He still won the regular-season title by leading the series with 11 top fives (with Denny Hamlin) and 16 top 10s.
Will this be the year Denny Hamlin finally wins it all?
Christopher Bell won three consecutive races in the first four weeks and hasn’t won since.
Kyle Larson seemed to have it going on in the spring, as he won three races by early May but hasn’t won since.
Hamlin has those 11 top-five finishes but also 10 finishes of 20th or worse. Ryan Blaney has two wins and has 14 top 10s. But he’s also failed to finish seven races.
Do you go with a previous champion? There are four of those in the field with Larson, Blaney, Chase Elliott and Joey Logano.
Will Joey Logano win in back-to-back years?
They have the experience of winning a title. But there is also a theory that the experience of losing a championship helps in winning one.
Then again, if that were the case, then Hamlin — who has made it to the semifinal Round of Eight nine times and been one of the four finalists in four of those years — would have captured a title.
So who to pick?
The thought here says Byron.
Can William Byron win it all this year?
The Hendrick driver has led the most laps (915 while Larson has led 885) this season. He has also led the most miles (1,287 with Larson at 950). His eight finishes outside the top 20 is a little concerning. And he was sixth at Phoenix this year, with Bell, Hamlin and Larson first, second and third.
But he also seems to be a driver who doesn’t get too rattled, and that combined with back-to-back Champ Four appearances should be enough to lift him above the rest.
So that’s the pick. William Byron.
Here are my picks for the playoffs:
Eliminated in opening round: Josh Berry, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisbergen
Eliminated in quarterfinal round (Round of 12): Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace
Eliminated in semifinal round (Round of Eight): Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott
Advancing to championship round: Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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