NASCAR Xfinity 500 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview — Martinsville Speedway

Ryan Blaney is the pre-qualifying favorite in the Xfinity 500 odds as he looks for his third straight win in this race at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday afternoon. 

Blaney more-or-less needs this win if he wants to advance in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs to the Championship 4 at Phoenix next weekend.

Here are our Xfinity 500 predictions and free betting picks for October 26.

Odds to win 2025 Xfinity 500

Odds as of 10-25.

Xfinity 500 field

There’s a fairly sizable spread in the pre-qualifying betting when looking at the Xfinity 500 odds. Ryan Blaney leads of pack of drivers priced between +400 and +850, but Chase Briscoe (+1600) is the only driver between the +850s and the +2500 Ross Chastain.

Briscoe and Denny Hamlin (+500) are already locked into the Championship 4. Kyle Larson (+500) and Christopher Bell (+650) are ahead of the Playoff cut line, while Blaney, Chase Elliott (+700), William Byron (+850), and Joey Logano (+850) are on the outside looking in.

Xfinity 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-25.

Xfinity 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Ryan Blaney (+400)
Ryan Blaney stomped the field with 145 laps led and a Championship 4-sealing victory in the fall of 2023, and did so again after leading three times for 32 laps last year.

Trailing the cutline by 47 points, he needs to do so again. Luckily, four of the last five Martinsville playoff races were won by a driver below the playoff cutline.

Blaney has 10 Top-5 finishes in his last 15 Martinsville starts, including a fifth-place finish last spring and 11th this spring.

Kyle Larson (+500)
Kyle Larson has eight Top-10 finishes in his last 10 Martinsville tries, including his last seven finishes being second, first, sixth, second, second, third, and fifth, respectively. On short tracks this season, Larson has finished third (Phoenix), first (Bristol spring), 32nd (Bristol fall), fifth (Martinsville), fourth (Dover), 28th (Iowa), and sixth (Richmond). 

Christopher Bell (+650) 
Christopher Bell’s 2022 playoff win was the lone Top-5 finish in his last 10 Martinsville starts entering the spring. Bell then qualified on pole and led 25 laps in a runner-up effort this past spring, however. Bell has seven consecutive Top-8 finishes, including a third-place finish in three of the last four weeks and a Bristol Night Race victory. 

Xfinity 500 sleepers

Chase Briscoe (+1600)
Chase Briscoe has six Top-10 finishes in his last seven Martinsville starts, and five Top-5 qualifying efforts at Martinsville in his last six tries. Briscoe has a Top-10 finish in seven of eight playoff starts, including three Top-4 finishes the last four weeks. 

Bubba Wallace (+2800)
Bubba Wallace won a Truck Series race here and has five Top-11 finishes in his last six starts on the track, including a fourth-place finish from the No. 2 starting spot last spring and third this spring. He has two Top-5 finishes the last four weeks. 

Ryan Preece (+8000)
While his finishes in 2023 were 15th and 20th, respectively, he qualified on the pole and ninth. Ryan Preece led 135 laps and won the first stage in the first race. Pit road was the reason for his demise.

In the second race, he finished eighth and seventh, respectively, in the two stages. Preece charged from 22nd to finish ninth last spring. This past spring, he charged from 21st to finish seventh. 

Xfinity 500 fades

Denny Hamlin (+500)
He knows he’s racing for a championship at Phoenix, so while Martinsville has been a great track for Hamlin, this is a glorified 500-mile test session for the team as he plans for Phoenix instead.

Chase Elliott (+700) 
The 2020 playoff race winner has finished 10th, 10th, 10th, 17th, third, second, and fourth here with the Next Gen vehicle. He finished 15th and 38th at Bristol, 14th at Iowa, and 38th in Richmond. 

William Byron (+850)
William Byron won the 2024 spring race and was sixth in the fall for his sixth Top 7 in his last eight Martinsville starts. However, he qualified 10th and finished 22nd this spring. He has one Top-5 finish in his last 10 starts overall. 

Tyler Reddick (+3500)
Don’t let the high number trap you, along with the fact that he finished seventh last spring and 14th last fall. Last spring was Reddick’s best finish in 11 Martinsville starts. He only has two Top-10 finishes and no laps led. He’s 0-for-7 in terms of Top 10s on short tracks in 2025.

Xfinity 500 prop pick: Joey Logano Top-3 Finish 

Joey Logano hasn’t won at Martinsville since the 2018 playoff race, and is riding a 23-race winless drought on the season. However, he has finished in the Top 10 in 12 of the last 13 races here.

Logano is knocking on the door at short tracks as he was ninth in Iowa, fourth at Richmond, and fifth in the Bristol night race. He was also fourth in Loudon. 

Pick: Joey Logano Top-3 Finish (+250 at DraftKings)

Martinsville Speedway track analysis

Martinsville is a unique track with long straights and tight corners. This second trip of the season is 100 laps longer than the spring visit, or about a 53-mile differential. 

Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske, and Hendrick Motorsports have combined to win 20 of the last 21 Martinsville races, with five of the last 10 belonging to HMS, who went 1-2-3 in spring 2024 and 2-3-6 last fall. It was 4-5-22-27 this spring.

Only three times has the Martinsville fall race winner not been a part of the playoffs, and they were Hendrick Motorsports drivers all three times (2005 — Jeff Gordon, 2014 — Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2021 — Bowman). 

Ryan Blaney ended a string of nine straight different winners of this fall race last year (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney). 

Xfinity 500 trends

• The front row starters have failed to win each of the last 24 Martinsville races overall. The last 11 overall Martinsville races were won by a driver coming from fifth on back.
• A driver that was below the cutline entering the final Round of 8 race moved on to the Championship 4 in five of the last six seasons — four of them were more than 20 points back entering the final race.
• The largest cutline deficit ever overcome to move on without a win in a cutoff race is 22 points by Chase Elliott in the Round of 12 in 2019.

Xfinity 500 info

Previous Xfinity 500 winners

Chevrolet has won just two of the last eight renditions of this race after winning 12 of 14 from 2003 to 2016.

How to make Xfinity 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.

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