NBA Christmas Day games are right around the corner, which means the value in the futures market will start correcting itself more and more as we inch closer to the halfway mark of the 2025-26 season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the talk of the West with a 24-2 start reminiscent of the 2015-16 Warriors and 1995-96 Bulls, while the Detroit Pistons have surged to the top of the East with a surprising 21-5 record.
The Thunder lead the way in odds for NBA Champion and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the frontrunner to win MVP, but the West is loaded. Can Oklahoma City repeat as champions? Can SGA repeat and win back-to-back MVPs? Let’s talk about it.
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Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
NBA Finals Winner: Thunder (+110) | Nuggets (+650) | Rockets (+1100) | Lakers (+1300) | Knicks (+1300) | Pistons (+2000) | Cavaliers (+2500) | Spurs (+2500)
The Thunder are off to a historic 24-2 start and most experts and the public, including myself believe this team is capable of breaking the Warriors win record, if not coming a few games short. The current state of the NBA is down right now with so many teams tanking short-term with load management and in tough travel spots or long-term with sitting players for stretches to enhance their chances in the draft lottery.
Incidentally enough, Oklahoma City was built on a little bit of that with draft capital acquired during back-to-back finishes of 22-50 and 24-58 in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. In 2025-26, Denver is the biggest competition to Oklahoma City with the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets following. I question whether Houston has the depth to beat Oklahoma City and if the Lakers have the defense. Denver’s success will be dependent on the health of role players or how much Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray can handle.
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I’m going to go out on a limb and say no team in the East can withstand a seven-game series with Oklahoma City. I know the Pacers pushed the Thunder to seven games last season and Indiana had a chance to win, but that was also the first NBA Finals experience for both teams. Now, the Thunder have that experience under their belt and know the feeling.
Jokic and the Nuggets won the Finals back in 2022-23 and LeBron James won with the Lakers during the 2019-20 season. Then there’s Kevin Durant who went to the Finals with the Thunder and the Warriors, so I 100-percent understand how challenging the path in the Western Conference is. These teams will beat up on each other and whoever earns the No. 1 and 2 seeds shouldn’t have issues with the 7 or 8’s, unless it’s the Spurs or Timberwolves.
The price of the Thunder has dropped slowly from +160 to +110 over the last two months, and in a lot of people’s minds, the NBA season starts on Christmas. Odds will drop to -105 or longer sooner than later, so I am jumping on the ship. The Thunder are simply too deep, have the experience now, and the best scoring guard in a guard-driven league.
Pick: Thunder to win the NBA Finals (2 units)
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NBA MVP Winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+125) | Nikola Jokic (+170) | Luka Doncic (+320) | Cade Cunningham (+5500) | Victor Wembanyama (+8000)
I cover the NBA MVP race weekly here at NBC and for seven of the nine weeks, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has owned my top spot. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic both had a spot for a short time and I believe it will be a three-man race for most, if not all of the season.
Victor Wembanyama can only miss five more games to be eligible for MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, so his price at +8000 to win MVP and +450 to win DPOY is really reliant on his health. Cade Cunningham and Detroit own the top spot in the East amid a career year, but he’s not doing anything that Doncic or Gilgeous-Alexander are doing as a guard.
The biggest threat to Gilgeous-Alexander not repeating is Jokic. The Nuggets star is averaging a 29.8-point triple-double and leads the league in rebounds and assists. Without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, Jokic has been asked to do more and delivered. Denver has the third-best record in the league, and all that he does could be negated if the Thunder win 70-plus games. In both years, Michael Jordan won the MVP in 1995-96 for the 72-10 Bulls and Steph Curry won in 2015-16 for the 73-9 Warriors.
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In three months of action, SGA has been top 10 in usage rate with percentages of 38.5, 31.4, and 31%. The knock on SGA has been the lack of fourth quarters played, but he’s only missed one game so far. He’s shooting an incredible 56% from the floor, 43.7% from three, and 88.4% from the free-throw line to go along with 32.4 points and 6.4 assists per game in 33.2 minutes. He’s playing like an MVP and if the Thunder can win 70-plus games, then SGA will win back-to-back MVPs.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP (2 units)
Season Record: 31-26 +5.05 units | 7.98 ROI%
Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.
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Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
How to Watch the NBA on NBC and Peacock
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NBA on NBC 2025-26 Schedule
Click here to see the full list of NBA games that will air on NBC and Peacock this season.
What devices does Peacock support?
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