NBA intel: Top 2026 storylines? We asked coaches, scouts and execs

During 2025, the NBA gave us the shocking Luka Doncic trade in February, the Dallas Mavericks beating 1.8% draft lottery odds in May, a historic Oklahoma City Thunder title in June and a first half of a 2025-26 season filled with the emergence of new stars and contenders on the court, and major scandals off it.

What lies ahead as the calendar flips to 2026?

How many wins will the Thunder rack up in their pursuit of back-to-back titles, and can their newest rivals from San Antonio deny a dynasty? Where are trade sagas headed for the Milwaukee Bucks‘ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis, and could each spill over into the offseason?

What’s next for potential league expansion — domestic and overseas — as commissioner Adam Silver continues to make his mark on the future of the NBA? Which rule changes could be on the horizon?

Those are just some of the storylines that coaches, executives and scouts around the league will be watching closely this year. Let’s break down the 10 biggest, starting in Los Angeles, where one of the league’s most storied franchises and its all-time great player are headed for a crossroads.

MORE: Need an NBA season refresher? Here’s what you missed in 2025-26

LeBron’s next (and possibly final) decision

Brian Windhorst: At the start of the season, Los Angeles Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka tried to be as respectful as possible when dealing with the delicate matter of LeBron James‘ future.

“We would love if LeBron’s story would be to retire as a Laker,” Pelinka said. “The first thing we want to do in terms of LeBron and his future is just give him absolute respect to choose his story with his family in terms of how many years he’s going to continue to play.”

It’s no one’s fault, but there is an inherent problem for the Lakers. James, who turned 41 on Tuesday, is 15 years older than Doncic. The superstars’ timelines do not match, and as this season has shown, playing together does not make the Lakers a championship contender in their current form. This was a byproduct of the Doncic trade falling into their laps last season. They had to do it, despite the inefficient immediate fit.

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Windhorst: LeBron’s career is defined by greatness over longevity

Brian Windhorst discusses what makes LeBron James so great on the day of his 41st birthday.

With James and Doncic collectively making $98 million (about 64% of the salary cap), it’s not a sustainable way forward. This is one reason the Lakers prioritized extending the contract of the 26-year-old Doncic and not James.

There are three rational paths for James after this season, league executives told ESPN.

• Stay with the Lakers at a significantly reduced salary. (This would be “the Dirk option,” as one executive said, referencing Dirk Nowitzki’s large pay cuts in his later years to stay with the Dallas Mavericks and help them help build out the roster).

• Leave for another team in free agency.

• Retire.

“LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50%. He can help a team win,” one head coach said. “You just have to find the right situation.”

But where? Would James want to uproot his life? Would his health hold up? Can the respectful end be achieved as Pelinka and the league office would much prefer? And what would the Lakers do with the financial flexibility if James’ $53 million salary fell off their books?

The path LeBron chooses will be a pivotal moment.

The Giannis saga enters the new year

Tim Bontemps: This was one of the big stories of 2025 — and 2024, 2023 and 2022 … you get the idea — but 2026 feels like the year the Giannis saga reaches its inflection point.

“The rubber is going to finally hit the road, ” a Western Conference executive said, “one way or the other.”

Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks ended 2025 with a home loss to the Washington Wizards. The Bucks are 11th in the Eastern Conference, after the stunning offseason moves to waive and stretch Damian Lillard‘s contract and sign free agent center Myles Turner to further appease the team’s two-time MVP.

Antetokounmpo continues to say he isn’t interested in discussing a future outside of Milwaukee at the moment. And some league insiders we spoke to agree with that prudent approach.

“If he waits until the summer [to ask out],” one Eastern Conference scout said, “he’ll have maximum leverage on what his future will be.”

Sources have reiterated that Milwaukee will spend this trade season focusing on improving the roster around Antetokounmpo before the Feb. 5 deadline. With Antetokounmpo being the consensus top player in a wide-open conference — the Bucks are just five games behind the fourth-seeded Toronto Raptors — the franchise still sees an opening for a playoff run. “They aren’t trading him in-season,” a West scout said.

But as long as Milwaukee continues to struggle, and until the trade deadline passes, all eyes around the league will be glued to the Bucks to see if that stance changes.

Potential uproar over anti-tanking and award-eligibility rules

Windhorst: “In 2026, I look forward to seeing what the league’s overreaction to its overreaction is,” a veteran East executive said.

He was poking fun but also expressing the continued annoyance at the upheaval the 2023 collective bargaining agreement has wrought on the league. Hoping to foster competitive balance, new rules aimed at restricting team building for high-spending clubs have resulted in numerous intended and unintended consequences.

As for 2026’s biggest potential change, the executive pointed to owners’ recent discussions surrounding stricter anti-tanking rules. Like with the NBA’s competitive balance, the league has achieved little regarding this challenge for years.

And it has become more than bottom-dwelling teams maneuvering for franchise-changing players at the top of the draft. In recent years, teams have been tanking to ensure they keep protected picks in the top six, eight or 10, the rights to which were often traded years before.

The deep 2026 draft class is exacerbating the situation, creating an outcry for new anti-tanking measures.

“This is only going to get louder,” another East executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”

The 65-game rule is also a topic of discussion as the league prepares for potential drama regarding end-of-season award races. James, who has been named to a league-record 21 consecutive All-NBA teams, is on the verge of being ineligible after missing the first several weeks because of a back issue.

Nikola Jokic, who has finished first or second in MVP voting each of the past five years, could be ineligible, too, depending on how long he’s sidelined because of a hyperextended left knee. Antetokounmpo is butting up against the missed-games limit, and so is Victor Wembanyama, who could miss out on a second straight Defensive Player of the Year award because of it.

If the number of superstars ineligible for awards continues to rise, expect calls for change to grow louder despite the rule delivering the league’s intended outcome.

Wembanyama and the Spurs’ rise into the league’s elite

Bontemps: In canvassing league insiders about the dominant storylines of 2026, San Antonio and its 7-foot-4 big man were near the top of their lists.

“They’re bringing the culture back that I like,” a second East executive said. “Some people might think it’s corny, but I love it when [Wembanyama] goes crazy when Chet [Holmgren] misses a free throw. They’re really going all in on rivalry and competitiveness. They will be fighting it out with Oklahoma City for the next few years.”

Beyond Wembanyama’s greatness, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle has taken a giant leap. Dylan Harper has immediately contributed as a rookie. The young duo and De’Aaron Fox are playing off each other nicely. Center Luke Kornet has been a great free agent signing. Keldon Johnson is playing the best basketball of his career as the team’s longest-tenured player and emotional leader.

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Spurs beat Thunder for third straight time

Spurs impress again vs. the Thunder as they take down the defending champs on the road.

No one — including the Spurs — expected this quick of an ascent. Some believed the Spurs could push for a top-six seed in the West, but they did not project San Antonio entering a new calendar year No. 2 in the West with three wins over the Thunder in 12 days.

The question now becomes whether the Spurs can rip through the playoffs without prior heartbreak, which is typically needed on the path to Finals contention, and take down the defending champs this spring.

“Have they made themselves a legitimate threat to OKC? Recent events say so,” a West scout said. “I need to see it sustained a little bit. I need more than a couple months, but it’s certainly trending in that direction.”

Flagg’s next step

Windhorst: One general manager was quick to single out his most important storyline of 2026:

“The teenager in Dallas.”

Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg, who turned 19 on Dec. 21, has lived up to the hype, showing off the skills and poise that go beyond his age and experience level. This is not to downplay the 2025 draft class, but Flagg is undoubtedly looking like a future cornerstone of the league.

The combination of Flagg’s potential and the departure of former GM Nico Harrison, who staked his tenure on the acquisition of Anthony Davis, leaves plenty of questions about what will happen with the Mavs. Building around Flagg is the only choice, but how fast that happens and the fallout for the Mavs’ veterans, namely Davis, could have wide-ranging effects.

Though the possible transactions and who might make them — the Mavs are operating with co-interim GMs Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley — could create plenty of intrigue, the real story is Flagg’s growth potential.

Even instantly impactful teenagers over the years — such as James, Doncic, Wembanyama and Kevin Durant — took time to put their stamp on the league. None, for example, led their teams to the playoffs in their first two seasons. The expectations for Flagg, especially with the Mavs potentially retrofitting their roster, will likely remain measured. But that doesn’t mean he won’t draw a ton of attention in 2026.

The Thunder’s pursuit of history

Bontemps: The NBA has been defined by dynasties. That’s why the league-record seven consecutive seasons without a back-to-back champion has been so bizarre.

Oklahoma City has a chance to change that.

The Thunder, even after their recent swoon against the Spurs, are on pace for close to 70 wins after amassing 68 in 2024-25. OKC’s plus-14.2 net rating, 1.5 points better than last season, would shatter the NBA record. The Thunder are enjoying this success despite a rotating cast surrounding MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because of injuries. All-NBA forward Jalen Williams is still rounding into form after missing the first month because of offseason wrist surgery.

“This is not a team prone to complacency,” a West scout said. “But it’s really hard to repeat, as we’ve seen.”

Several legitimate challengers loom. The Denver Nuggets pushed the Thunder to seven games in last season’s conference finals. The Houston Rockets arguably gave OKC the game of the season on opening night, and have gotten better since. Gilgeous-Alexander said the Thunder can’t say they are better than the Spurs after losing to them three times in quick succession.

That’s why, despite the gaudy résumé, the scintillating leading star and a deep, versatile roster, not everyone is convinced that the Thunder will be the first repeat champion since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors

“I don’t think they do it,” a second West executive said of the Thunder. “It’s easy to say that, but I think there’s too much scrutiny on them.”

The Clippers, and their place in the standings

Windhorst: The interest in the Clippers across the league is more off the floor than on it. The Aspiration-Kawhi Leonard investigation has been going on behind the scenes for months. The NBA is outsourcing the investigation, which is standard procedure, to New York law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, and the billable hours are mounting.

No announced timetable has been announced, but with the Clippers hosting All-Star Weekend in February, a worldwide spotlight will be on the situation if it is not resolved by then. It will be an early 2026 story, however it plays out.

Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has earned a good reputation with fellow owners, and his net worth is around $150 billion. When speaking to people in the league, these are important factors to consider.

“You have to be careful getting into a [legal] fight with someone like Ballmer. You have to have the evidence,” one rival team president said. (Ballmer and the Clippers have strongly denied salary cap circumvention allegations that came out after reporting by the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast.)

The Clippers’ disastrous season has featured an ugly divorce from franchise icon and future Hall of Famer Chris Paul and a horrible run of play on the court. Even after closing 2025 with a five-game winning streak, LA remains 10 games under .500.

And the Clippers, who were expected to contend for a top-four spot in the West, picked the wrong season for a dramatic fall in the standings. Thanks to the Paul George trade of 2019, the league-leading Thunder have the Clippers’ unprotected first-round pick in June.

How trade season could impact the free agency frenzy

Bontemps: The NBA is halfway through its current CBA, and as teams continue to navigate new luxury tax aprons and team-building restrictions, what lies ahead for the 2026 trade and free agency seasons?

“I don’t see an eventful trade deadline,” the second East executive said. “But that could set up for a crazy summer.”

There are reasons to expect the fireworks this summer, not next month. Similar to Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, Davis’ big salary ($58.5 million next season with a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28) could prove difficult for Dallas to move.

The same could be true for Trae Young with the Atlanta Hawks and Zach LaVine with the Sacramento Kings, two players making approximately $40 million, which might not garner much trade interest as teams struggle to find cap room. Meanwhile, the saga continues surrounding Jonathan Kuminga‘s future with the Golden State Warriors after last summer’s protracted contract stalemate.

“All these guys are going to be stuck where they are,” the first West executive said of the lead-up to the Feb. 5 trade deadline.

“I don’t think it will be as busy as people think, and I don’t think the available players will be that good.”

Big changes in the business of basketball

Windhorst: At the NBA Cup in Las Vegas, Silver said a decision regarding expansion would come in 2026. This got the attention of city officials in Las Vegas and Seattle, and motivated prospective bidders to get on the phone with their money managers. Expansion has been in the ether for years, with the league giving various hints about its plans.

“It sounds like 2026 is when we’re going to find out where the new teams are going to be,” a West executive said.

New teams and the new jobs, clean salary caps, a possible need for conference realignment, the strategy surrounding an expansion draft — it all creates a delicious series of possibilities across the NBA. Or not.

Over the past 18 months, it has seemed like the priority was a new league in Europe, an audacious and challenging concept that has led to disruption across the continent and into the Middle East. Which legacy European teams would jump over, who would negotiate a better deal to stay in the current Euroleague system and where would newly created teams reside? How many new jobs — for players, coaches and executives — would be created and how would it affect the NBA?

Silver has repeatedly said that NBA expansion and European expansion can happen at the same time. But stakeholders who have been working with the league on both have expressed their skepticism to ESPN. There is reason to believe Silver can achieve both endeavors, but common sense says one must be prioritized.

The NBA’s ongoing youth movement

Bontemps: With the 2025 draft class providing plenty of potential stars, and with the 2026 class receiving just as much buzz, this influx of young talent will be a fascinating storyline to follow.

The current rookie class has been unusually productive, in racking up individual stats and impacting winning.

Flagg, Harper and Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe are all playing important roles for teams either in playoff position or, in Dallas’ case, fighting to get there. The Charlotte Hornets seem to have found a foundational player in Kon Knueppel. The New Orleans Pelicans‘ Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen and the Memphis Grizzlies‘ Cedric Coward have established themselves as starters. Ryan Kalkbrenner (Charlotte), Will Richard (Golden State), Hugo Gonzalez (Boston) and Egor Demin (Brooklyn) have impressed.

And with a 2026 class — headlined by a three-player debate for No. 1 among Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer — set to enter the league in less than six months, a new generation of superstars could be taking shape.

“Which of these guys,” a third East executive pondered, “are really going to take over the NBA?”