Everyone keeps talking about the “weaker” Eastern Conference, but two years ago the Celtics were a dominant force on their way to a title, and last season the Pacers pushed the Thunder to seven games in the NBA Finals and left us with one of the greatest “what ifs?” in NBA history.
This season, nobody is giving the Eastern Conference a chance. Underestimate these teams at your own peril. Which teams can not only make the Finals but threaten the Thunder, Nuggets or whoever comes out of the West? Let’s break the East down by tiers.
TITLE CONTENDERS
1. Cavaliers
2. Knicks
SECOND CIRCLE CONTENDERS
3. Magic
4. Hawks
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
5. Bucks
6. Pistons
7. 76ers
HOPEFUL PLAY-IN TEAMS
8. Heat
9. Celtics
10. Raptors
11. Bulls
12. Pacers
13. Hornets
LOTTERY BOUND
14. Wizards
15. Nets
Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the New York Knicks
NBA Finals
Denver Nuggets defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers
Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers pushing the Thunder in the Finals last season was a great story, but I don’t see anything close to that happening again. I like Cleveland to win the East because of their defense and balance of scoring (I think they learned hard lessons in last year’s playoffs), but it doesn’t really matter if it’s the Cavs or Knicks. Denver and Oklahoma City — whichever team comes out of the West (I have picked Denver) — are just better than anyone in the East. In particular, if the matchup is Cleveland and OKC, the East and the Cavaliers are in trouble (two similar teams in style and design, but the Thunder are just better at everything).
My prediction is that Nikola Jokic gets ring number two. What Denver was lacking a season ago, the front office addressed this offseason (somewhere Michael Malone is frustrated and just shaking his head). Cameron Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas will play critical roles (this team isn’t going to fall off a cliff when Jokic sits, like previous years).
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There is a clear line drawn in the East, the top two teams appear a good step or two ahead of the rest of the pack. The Cavaliers won 64 games last season and learned the hard way about what it takes to win in the playoffs, now they are running back a talented and deep roster. They need to stay healthy (no Darius Garland to start the season) and Evan Mobley needs to take another step forward on the offensive end, but I expect those things to happen. New York feels it just needs to improve around the edges, and Mike Brown can bring a little more ball and player movement to New York to facilitate that, with a bench he can trust. The Knicks, led by the gritty Jalen Brunson and the sharp-shooting Karl-Anthony Towns, are still a team fully capable of taking the next step to the NBA Finals.
• Orlando is the one team that could crash the Knicks/Cavs party. This was a team already looking ready to make a leap behind Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, plus an elite defense. Now, they have added Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones to fill in needed gaps in shooting and having a floor general. Like just about everyone, I am high on Orlando, but they have to prove it on the court, and then they will learn their lessons about winning in the postseason.
• Atlanta is the other team with a chance to crash the party, but a lot more things have to go right. At the top of the list: Kristaps Porzingis has to stay healthy, which is never a given. Beyond that, the question becomes, can Quin Snyder meld a roster with a lot of new parts — Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard, plus a healthy Jalen Johnson — and find chemistry on a roster built to take advantage of Trae Young’s skills. This is a make-or-break season in Atlanta. If Young and this roster can’t compete at a high level, what do they pivot to?
After that top four, there’s a drop off in the East.
• Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo — still one of the five best players in the world — and swapped out Damian Lillard for Myles Turner, but is there enough around two proven stars to make this team a contender? It doesn’t feel like it.
• A lot of fans and pundits expect Cade Cunningham and Detroit to take another step forward this season, but I’m skeptical and expect more of a plateau (Jaden Ivey missing the first month of the season doesn’t help).
• The 76ers could be a contender if everything goes right for them, but with a limited Joel Embiid to start the season — plus Paul George and Jared McCain out with injuries — it’s tough to be truly optimistic. Embiid reportedly will play opening night but will be on a minutes limit and will not be playing back-to-backs — he is the key to it all, if Embiid is not back close to his MVP form, none of this works.
• Miami will punch above its weight but it’s not a top-six threat as constructed.
• Boston and Indiana are two of the harder teams to project — elite teams that will spend the season (or, with the Celtics, at least most of the season) without their best player. Both teams didn’t just lose their star, Boston is without Porzingis and Jrue Holiday now, Indiana is without Turner. Both of these teams still have high-level championship role players on the roster, but how far can they go without their stars at 100%? Maybe I’m too low on them to start the season, but how high can you be?
• The Bulls and Raptors are teams that maybe we’re underestimating, but I’m not sold. Toronto has a fair amount of talent — Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley — but a lot of it overlaps. There are smart basketball minds that think this is a playoff team in the East. I need to be convinced. Chicago locked up Josh Giddey this summer and has some talent around him with Coby White, Matas Buzelis and rookie Noa Essengue, but this is a team retooling on the fly and not ready to compete with the big boys. Also, look for them to trade Nikola Vucevic during the season.
• There’s a pattern with the bottom three teams in the conference. Charlotte and LaMelo Ball will be entertaining but lose a lot of games. The Wizards have some interesting young talent — Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington — but are going to lose a lot of games. Cam Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. are going to put up a lot of points for Brooklyn, but the Nets are going to lose a lot of games.
