After the NCAA Top 16 bracket thing that was almost instantly obsolete, and with the epic games – Arizona over Houston and Duke over Michigan – where do the brackets stand now?
It’s not about the right now, though. It’s about predicting and projecting what they’ll be at the end.
So no, these bracket projections don’t match up with the NET Rankings, or KenPom, or the NCAA’s attempt to create the drama of the College Football Playoff rankings. These have factored in our projections for how the rest of the regular season will go …
And then it’ll all get blown up by the conference tournaments.
Breaking Down the Week 17 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection
Feb 21, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) reacts while playing against the Houston Cougars in the first half at Fertitta Center. © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
(© Thomas Shea-Imagn Images)
Most Important Games This Week
These might not be the biggest games, but they’re the ones with the biggest overall impact on the NCAA Tournament seeding.
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Monday: Houston at Kansas
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Tuesday: NC State at Virginia
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Wednesday: St. John’s at UConn
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Thursday: Michigan State at Purdue
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Friday: Michigan at Illinois
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Saturday: Kansas at Arizona
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Sunday: Purdue at Ohio State
Projected First Four Out
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San Diego State (Mountain West)
Projected Last Four In
These four will probably be knocked out once the conference tournament weirdness kicks in.
Four Teams That Might Screw Everyone Up
Projected-out teams that could steal bids with a splashy conference tournament run.
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Colorado State (Mountain West)
True Bubble Teams
These four are probably closer to being in than we have them.
All Seeds in Alphabetical Order
Projected 16 Seeds
UT Martin (Ohio Valley)
Vermont (America East)
Teams in Play-In Games
Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
Howard (MEAC)
LIU (NEC)
Marist (MAAC)
Projected 15 Seeds
Austin Peay (ASUN)
Oakland (Horizon)
Navy (Patriot)
Troy (Sun Belt)
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Projected 14 Seeds
ETSU (SoCon)
North Dakota State (Summit)
Portland State (Big Sky)
UC Irvine (Big West)
Projected 13 Seeds
Cal Baptist (WAC)
Liberty (CUSA)
UNC Wilmington (Coastal)
VCU (Atlantic 10)
Projected 12 Seeds
High Point (Big South)
McNeese (Southland)
USF (American)
Yale (Ivy)
Projected 11 Seeds
Georgia (SEC)
Santa Clara (West Coast)
Teams in Play-In Games
Belmont (Missouri Valley)
New Mexico (Mountain West)
SMU (ACC)
UCLA (Big Ten)
Projected 10 Seeds
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Texas A&M (SEC)
Tulsa (American)
UCF (Big 12)
Projected 9 Seeds
Clemson (ACC)
Indiana (Big Ten)
Miami (ACC)
Miami University (MAC)
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Projected 8 Seeds
Auburn (SEC)
Iowa (Big Ten)
Kentucky (SEC)
Utah State (Mountain West)
Projected 7 Seeds
Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)
Saint Mary’s (West Coast)
Villanova (Big East)
Wisconsin (Big Ten)
Projected 6 Seeds
Alabama (SEC)
North Carolina (ACC)
NC State (ACC)
St. John’s (Big East)
Projected 5 Seeds
Arkansas (SEC)
Kansas (Big 12)
Texas Tech (Big 12)
Vanderbilt (SEC)
Projected 4 Seeds
BYU (Big 12)
Gonzaga (West Coast)
Louisville (ACC)
Tennessee (SEC)
Projected 3 Seeds
Illinois (Big Ten)
Michigan State (Big Ten)
Purdue (Big Ten)
Virginia (ACC)
Projected 2 Seeds
Florida (SEC)
Iowa State (Big 12)
Nebraska (Big Ten)
UConn (Big East)
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Projected 1 Seeds
Arizona (Big 12)
Duke (ACC)
Houston (Big 12)
Michigan (Big Ten)
Related: American Conference Football Rankings: Spring 2026 First Look
This story was originally published by College Football News on Feb 23, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
