Welcome to the next generation of Super Bowl props — literally. When the NFL first installed chips in every player’s shoulder pads nearly a decade ago, I doubt the league imagined wagers being placed on the player-tracking data being collected … but here we are.
And, in my view, it represents a great spot to find betting value. Because, who the heck knows how often a player reaches 19 mph as a ball carrier? We can be that someone.
So, just for the Super Bowl, I’ve spent the past week researching these props and building models to try to forecast these Next Gen Stats-based categories. Let’s dive in and hopefully find some winners.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Stefon Diggs fastest ball carry speed UNDER 18.5 mph (-160)
This is my favorite Super Bowl bet, period. When I saw my model’s take — that Diggs had an 88% chance to go under this number — I assumed I’d made a mistake along the way. So, as a quick baseline check, I went back to see how many times Diggs had gone over that line this season. The answer? One time. He hit 18.7 mph during Week 16. That’s it!
Ball carrier max speed doesn’t have that much to do with how fast a player would run on a track. Instead, it’s about the context in which a player is carrying the ball. A straight-line sprint to the end zone? That’s when players hit 21 or even 22 mph. But Diggs is not that type of player. He’s not typically streaking downfield on a go route, catching a pass past the last defender and running toward the end zone.
Kayshon Boutte to record the most air yards on a single reception (+500)
To call Boutte a downfield player is selling short just how extreme his route tree is. Among wide receivers with at least 300 routes run this season, playoffs included, Boutte had the highest percentage of deep fades or go routes (30%). That’s well ahead of Quentin Johnston, who finished a distant second at 23%, and more than double the average player (12%). Boutte doesn’t always catch passes, but when he does, they’re typically downfield. I make the fair price here +379.
Boutte fastest ball carry speed UNDER 18.5 mph (-105)
Wait a minute. Didn’t we just talk about how Boutte is a downfield receiver and therefore someone who is particularly likely to hit a top speed?
That’s true, but there are two reasons we should still bet this under:
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Boutte simply doesn’t get that many chances; he needs the ball in his hands to record a qualifying fastest speed for this category. His receptions prop heading into this Super Bowl is 2.5 — shaded toward the under — and that is a feature in the model.
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We’re not betting a tail outcome here. The air yards prop above is a multi-way market where we’re focused on the extremes. But this one is measuring Boutte’s median outcome, and despite his speed upside, Boutte’s median outcome top speed is sneaky low.
Mack Hollins fastest ball carry speed UNDER 19.5 mph (-180)
The same logic applies for Hollins as it does for Boutte, except Hollins isn’t the same level of vertical threat as Boutte is.
Rhamondre Stevenson fastest ball carry speed OVER 16.5 mph (-125)
Finally, an over! Although Stevenson is not known for his breakaway capability, what he does bring to the table is a ton of (forecasted) opportunity. Stevenson’s rushing attempts line is set at 14.5, in addition to a 3.5 receptions prop line. He just needs to break through on one of those plays to get us the win here.
Stevenson has gone over this line in 12 of 17 games this season, and he wasn’t always getting this heavy of an (expected) workload, either.
George Holani to record the most YAC on a single reception (25-1)
Unlike the highest air yards prop, this category includes wide receivers, tight ends and running backs all as feasible candidates to win it. And although no single player is particularly likely to win — I make Jaxon Smith-Njigba the favorite at just a 14.5% chance — Holani appears to be a value at this price. With Zach Charbonnet out, Holani will get some work. And last week he ran a route on 35% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks and recorded three receptions. That’s enough to give him a fighting chance in this category.
