Duke (1-2, 0-0) opens Atlantic Coast Conference play by hosting North Carolina State (3-0, 1-0) on Saturday at 4 pm EDT. Television coverage provided by ESPN2. The Blue Devils are favored by 3.5 points.
During Monday’s press conference opening remarks, Coach Manny Diaz stated, “The biggest thing for us right now is where we are defensively. That’s always going to be the foundation for how we win games here at Duke.”
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Obviously, Duke’s pass defense is not where it needs to be through three games. The Blue Devils rank 11th out of 17 ACC teams in pass defense yielding 226 yards per game.
Coach Diaz went on to state, “[o]ffensively, I think the positive takeaway is the run game, [we are] more explosive in the run game.” Duke averages 126.7 yards per game on the ground to complement 352.7 yards per game through the air. Freshman Nate Sheppard leads the ground attack with 127 yards on 15 carries.
Offense: Running back Hollywood Smothers is the ACC leading rusher averaging 126.7 yards per game. He averages six yards per carry with his longest run being 57 yards. As a team, N.C. State runs for 175.3 yards per game, which is fourth best in the conference.
Quarterback C.J. Bailey is a dual-threat who is completing 70.8% of his pass attempts. He has tossed five touchdowns against one interception so far this season. Moreover, Bailey has rushed 21 times for 84 yards and three touchdowns so for the second consecutive game Duke will face a mobile quarterback who can hurt the defense with his legs.
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The wide receiver room is led by Wesley Grimes who has nine receptions for 173 yards and a touchdown. Both Noah Rogers and Terrell Anderson have over 100 yards receiving. Tight end Justin Joly is the Wolfpack’s go to guy when they have to have a completion. He has 13 receptions for 90 yards with two touchdowns.
The Wolfpack bring an offense to Durham which can successfully run and pass the ball. Duke will need significant improved defensive performance to contain C.J. Bailey and company Saturday afternoon.
Defense: Linebackers Sean Brown and Caden Fordham are the Wolfpacks leading tacklers with 31 and 26 respectively. N.C. State is 9th in the ACC in rush defense allowing 115.3 yards per game but they’re 16th in pass defense allowing 297.3 yards through the air.
Defensive end Sabastian Harsh is suspended for the 1st half against Duke due to being ejected for targeting in the 4th quarter against Wake Forest. Defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley was named ACC Defensive Lineman of the Week. Shirley had a 41-yard Pick Six in the 1st quarter in the Wake Forest win.
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The Wolfpack defense has been tough to score against in the 2nd half. Wake Forest did not score in the 2nd half last week while Virginia was held to seven points after halftime the previous week.
With the N.C. State defense susceptible to the pass, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah will be looking for his fourth consecutive 300 yard passing game as a Blue Devil. Can Duke add increased Red Zone efficiency to complete drives with touchdowns? That’s the question all Blue Devil fans are anxious to see answered in the affirmative.
At his Monday press conference N.C. State Head Coach Dave Doeren discussed defending Darian Mensah, “A really good passer, he sees the field, he has a strong arm, throws catchable balls, very accurate when he’s running so we have to do a great job not only keeping him in the pocket but, if he gets out of our pocket staying in coverage, staying on top of routes…”
Prediction: Duke tightens up its defensive performance, especially in the secondary on 3rd down, to secure a narrow victory in this conference opener. Duke 33, N.C. State 27.
