The San Francisco 49ers travel to Seattle for Saturday night’s NFC divisional tilt with the Seahawks, and we have the head-to-head tape from the Week 18 game in San Francisco to study.
Matt Bowen will focus on the matchups and look for answers on both clubs and offer his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the 49ers have the ball
Bowen: Kyle Shanahan’s run game with Christian McCaffrey has lacked efficiency this season, but it remains the offensive foundation in San Francisco. McCaffrey will see volume Saturday night while also using his elite dual-threat ability as a receiver. In the Week 18 matchup, Seattle limited the 49ers and Brock Purdy to only one completion of 20-or-more yards, and with George Kittle now out with a torn Achilles, Shanahan needs to play the defensive tendencies of Seattle to generate throwing windows.
Edge: Seahawks
Best bet: Jauan Jennings OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-114): Jennings can work the underneath levels versus the Seahawks’ two-deep zone coverages, plus Shanahan can set him up on middle-of-the-field targets off play-action, which leads to numbers after the catch. Jennings has had 40-or-more yards receiving in two of his last four games.
When the Seahawks have the ball
Bowen: The run game under Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak found daylight on zone-run concepts versus the 49ers in Week 18, as both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet rushed for over 70 yards. Look for Seattle to feature the run game on early downs in this matchup, and we know wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will get his targets from both boundary and slot alignments. And don’t forget about the vertical shot plays in the Seattle game plan for quarterback Sam Darnold.
Edge: Seahawks
Best bet: Charbonnet OVER 61.5 rushing/receiving yards (-111): Charbonnet has had at least 97 total yards in his last two games, with 17-or-more carries in each. Look for the rushing volume to stay consistent and for Charbonnet to create in space on screen concepts.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Seahawks -7 (-120)
Maldonado: This is control versus fragility. The Seahawks are top two in scoring defense, yards per play allowed and special teams EPA. They already showed the blueprint in Week 18: win early downs, choke efficiency and drain clock. San Francisco managed 173 yards and a 31% success rate in that game, and now comes in even thinner with George Kittle out of the equation.
Zach Charbonnet OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-111)
Moody: The Seahawks backfield is the epitome of a committee, but Charbonnet has cleared this line in two consecutive games and has logged at least 17 rushing attempts in each. Seattle’s offensive line finished the regular season ranked eighth in run block win rate and faces a 49ers defense missing key players, including Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. The Eagles rushed for 140 yards against San Francisco in last week’s wild-card round, and Seattle should find similar success on the ground.
Jake Tonges OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-113)
Loza: Tonges thrived as the replacement for Kittle, registering at least 37 receiving yards in four of six regular-season contests when the aforementioned star was sidelined. He also drew three looks after Kittle exited last weekend’s contest early. The Seattle defense is a force, but Mike McDonald’s unit allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to TEs (an average of 63.5 per game) this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards (+107)
Moody: Smith-Njigba has cleared this line in just one of his last five games, but you can’t ignore that he averaged 9.6 targets and 105.5 receiving yards per game this season. He also cleared 100 receiving yards in one of his two matchups against the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense remains shorthanded and has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers all season, making it easy to envision Seattle leaning heavily on Smith-Njigba in the divisional round.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Sam Darnold ($15,600). Let’s get loose. Darnold has emerged as a stalwart manager for the Seahawks, amassing 4,048 passing yards (QB5) and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt (QB2) this season. While he failed to clear 200 passing yards or throw a touchdown in either of his regular-season meetings against the 49ers, the postseason hits different. Looking to avenge the criticism he has faced for his performances in high-pressure situations (Vikings fans feel this one), Darnold should be emboldened to attack a banged-up 49ers defense.
Also in my lineup: Seahawks D/ST ($4.200). Seattle’s defense held opponents under 20 points in all but four contests during the regular season. The Seahawks also ranked first in defensive efficiency. San Francisco’s offense can be potent, but Brock Purdy registered three INTs and was sacked four times over his two regular-season meetings against Seattle. He’ll also be without George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall remains banged up. Coming off a week of rest, Seattle will bring its best to this rivalry game.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($17,100). Seattle’s offense has shifted to shorter and safer plays, which funnels volume directly to JSN. He leads the team in targets, wins underneath and stays involved regardless of game script.
Also in my lineup: Kenneth Walker III ($8,400). This screams “Walker game” with Seattle wanting control of the clock and physicality. San Francisco’s run defends bends, especially with injuries at linebacker. Walker’s carry share spikes in wins, and his red zone role gives him TD equity.
Walder’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points). Purdy ($15,900). It’s no secret that the Seahawks have the best run defense in the NFL. And running the ball hasn’t been a 49ers strength this year, anyway. If the Niners are going to win, it will be through the air, so they’ll have to let Purdy air it out.
Also in my lineup: Zach Charbonnet ($8,200). Especially early in their Week 18 win over the 49ers, the Seahawks — who also have not run the ball all that well this year! — were able to run all over San Francisco. It’s possible the 49ers will be in a little better shape at linebacker now with Fred Warner possibly coming back, but that’s no guarantee as of this writing, and in general I’m happy to bet against San Francisco’s run defense at this stage of the season.
