Russell Wilson
Fun fact: the Giants returned 10 of their 11 offensive starters from last year, despite finishing 29th in EPA per play last season. The only change came at quarterback, with the Giants signing Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and trading up in the first round of the draft for Jaxson Dart.
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It was an odd strain of organisational arrogance: Ignore that we won three games! Our roster is great! Our coaching is great! Daniel Jones was the problem!
Week 1 suggests otherwise. Jones is now with the Colts, and carved up the Dolphins’ defense, showing a level of confidence in his scheme and supporting cast that vanished in New York. Meanwhile, the sluggish Giants scored just six points against the Commanders, the fewest by any team in the opening week. Wilson looked like the same player he was in Pittsburgh: capable of throwing beautiful deep balls but offering little else. His athleticism has eroded to the point where he can no longer reliably break the pocket and create plays out of structure. Against the Commanders, he completed just two of 12 passes when pressured and was sacked twice. And when playing in structure, he was indecisive and late to deliver throws.
Giants head coach Brian Daboll confirmed Wilson will remain the team’s starter for week two, despite teasing he might make a change. But how long can Daboll keep Dart out of the lineup?
Dart flashed enough in preseason to earn the starting gig. Understandably, the Giants want to work the rookie in slowly rather than throwing him to the wolves. But the team’s decision-makers are on borrowed time. Their best chance at keeping their jobs is throwing Dart on the field, ready or not, and hoping for the best. That may not be great for Dart’s development, but it’s the Giants’ best shot at bringing a jolt to their limp offence.
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Panic meter: 8/10 – get your arm ready, Jaxson.
Miami Dolphins
The vibes have been off with the Dolphins since preseason. “It’s a great day,” Mike McDaniel said a month ago. Why? “Because we are another day closer to death.”
McDaniel’s shtick is already wearing thin with the ‘Phins fanbase, and the end of his coaching run in Miami could be just a few weeks away. The reason why isn’t just the 33-8 scoreline at the hands of Indianapolis. It was how the Dolphins looked. You know things are miserable when Tyreek Hill is throwing his first tantrum of the season in the first quarter of the first game.
McDaniel is a walking oxymoron: when was the last time a run-game guru was handed a franchise and the complaint was that his team was not physical enough? Usually, those coaches are portrayed as neanderthals, out of step with the new-fangled stuff. But under McDaniel, the Dolphins have been the opposite: wonderfully creative but committing the cardinal sin of playing soft. They can’t run the ball and they can’t stop it either. Their much-ballyhooed defensive front continues to struggle with injuries and failed to pressure Jones and the remade Colts offensive line. And despite all the pros with Tua Tagovailoa’s game, he is the least adaptable quarterback in the league. When pressure arrives or the offense is out of sorts, he bottoms out.
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The Dolphins lack the talent to cover up their shortfalls. McDaniel’s seat couldn’t be warmer.
Panic meter: 10/10 – time to start scouting the 2026 draft.
Bills defense
I know, I know. The Bills engineered one of the most exhilarating comebacks in league history against the Ravens. As long as Josh Allen is standing upright, the Bills should be favourites to host the AFC championship game, particularly given the weakness of the AFC East. But outside Allen, alarm bells should be ringing.
The Bills defense is a mess. They look small and light, incapable of standing up to a downhill rushing attack. No other team can roll out the combined threats of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers, but what happened to the Bills on Sunday was as much about their own roster and structural flaws as Baltimore’s trifecta.
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If anything, it looks like the Bills built a defense specifically to stop Kansas City in January. The scars of multiple playoff defeats will do that to a team. But there are plenty of other threats in the postseason, and early evidence suggests the Chiefs may not be the team to beat.
Related: Aaron Rodgers’ Jets revenge tour shows the old guy may still have it
The Bills play more dime defence (six defensive backs) than any team in the league, but have one of the weakest safety groups. They invested heavily this offseason in versatile defensive linemen, players who could line up inside or outside to bring extra juice to last year’s rickety pass rush. This is a defense that is supposed to be as flexible and quick on third down as possible. But you still have to get the opponents to third down. And that could be a chore this year.
Buffalo lacked the bodies to match up with Baltimore’s heavier personnel. The Ravens picked up 199 yards, averaging 14.2 yards per play with their bigger bodies on the field. When the Bills stuck to their preferred style of defense, rolling out extra defensive backs, Henry averaged 19 yards a carry.
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Sean McDermott has pivoted strategies at a time when the run game is experiencing a resurgence. Sure, against the Chiefs or Bengals, the Bills can flood the field with speed and be creative up front to pressure the pocket. But what if they see Baltimore again in the postseason, or the Chargers, or any run-centric offense? What if the game script isn’t in their favour?
It was a problem last season, but Allen and the offense forced opponents into pass-heavy situations. The Bills doubled down on their approach in the offseason, and now they look out of place matching up against the top offenses in the AFC. Given Allen, the issue probably won’t reveal itself until the playoffs. But the Bills need to find reinforcements at safety and a veteran hand who can help thump against the run up front.
Panic meter: 7/10 – the playoffs are all that matter, and additions are needed before then.
The Chiefs in general
Speaking of leaky defences, the Chiefs have problems of their own. They were ripped apart by Justin Herbert in Brazil. The Chargers ditched their typical run-based plan and instead allowed Herbert to fling the ball all over the field.
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The Chargers exposed faultlines across the Chiefs’ defense. The defensive backfield is as advertised: scrappy but lacking players who can hang in man coverage. But the larger concern is up front. Outside Chris Jones, the Chiefs don’t have a reliable pass rusher – and Jones didn’t turn up in Week 1.
KC paid George Karlaftis $93m this offseason to be a reliable second banana, but he has never been more than a solid effort rusher who feeds on the scraps of Jones’s brilliance. If Jones is below his peak, the Chiefs are in a bind.
Steve Spagnuolo is the best defensive coordinator in the sport, but he was left chasing his tail against Herbert. The Chiefs couldn’t reliably pressure with four, so Spagnuolo upped his blitz rate to try to manufacture disruption. But plugging more players into the pass rush left his secondary on islands, and Herbert gobbled it up, completing 11 of 14 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown against the blitz.
Spagnuolo has proven time and again that he can make a serviceable unit out of ill-fitting parts. Still, his schematic wonkery can only drag the unit so far. Even if they approach league average, it won’t matter if the offence continues to stall. And with Rashee Rice suspended for five more games and Xavier Worthy hurt, it could be some time until the Chiefs offense is up and firing.
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Even dynastic teams have cycles. During the glory days of the Belichick-Brady Patriots dynasty, they had limp seasons. They would stumble into the postseason and exit early. The key building blocks can remain in place, but the ancillary pieces are no longer up to it, thanks to the salary cap, picking at the bottom of the draft order and misfiring on crucial free agents.
The Chiefs have that feeling – a franchise caught between two eras. That doesn’t mean they won’t have a deep playoff run again – and it’s early in the season – but they have more holes to plug and questions to answer than at any point in the last eight years.
Panic meter: 6/10 – lose to the Eagles in Week 2, and this jumps to 8/10.
The Lions’ offensive line
The Lions ran into a buzzsaw in Green Bay. They took on one of the best teams in the NFC, fresh off the trade for Micah Parsons, while replacing two coordinators. Teething problems were always going to be an issue. But the Packers exposed some fundamental flaws when the Lions faced the best of the best: they lack talent and depth along both lines of scrimmage.
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On the perimeter, the Lions have as much talent as any team in the league. Their offensive weapons are laughably good; their secondary is filled with game-breakers. But games are won and lost up front. The Packers bullied the Lions on both sides of the ball. Aidan Hutchinson is Detroit’s only dependable pass rusher, and any hopes to offset that deficit with the blitz fell woefully short against Jordan Love.
A more pressing problem is the offensive line. Losing Ben Johnson was the talk of Detroit’s offseason. How would they cope without the hot-shot offensive mind at the controls? But that talk was always a little overstated; the loss of center Frank Ragnow – who decided to retire at the age of 29 – was a bigger deal. More than any other segment of a team, the offensive line functions as a unit; five gigantic bodies synchronising into a cohesive bloc within a confined area that offers little margin for error. Penei Sewell is a star at right tackle and Taylor Decker gives the Lions a serviceable starter on the left side. But the concern is with the interior. The Lions have turned the inside over to Graham Glasgow at center and young pups Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge at guard.
Glasgow is a limited player, but Mahogany and Ratledge have talent. Yet the trio are not up to par with what Detroit has rolled with the last two seasons. All three are people-movers who can push defenders back off the ball. But all three also have limitations in pass protection and struggle to move in space. With Johnson and Ragnow, the Lions had the most varied rushing attack in the NFL, which helped fuel the league’s best play-action game. With the new interior, they’re limited in what they can call, and worse at what they do run. It’s going to take time to figure out what the offense can major in, time they cannot afford in the knife-fight of the NFC North.
Jared Goff is an excellent quarterback when he’s sticking to the flow of a play. But move him off his spot, and he falls apart. Having a stellar receiving corps is fun, but it won’t matter if Goff is feeling heat or the Lions are unable to move the ball on the ground.
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Panic meter: 5/10 – beating the Bears this Sunday is now a must.
