The divisional round of the playoffs for the 2025 NFL season has four great games, and we have you covered with what you need to know going into the weekend.
Saturday will feature QB Josh Allen and the Bills heading to Denver to face the Broncos, and the night finishes off with an NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Seahawks in Seattle. On Sunday, the Texans hope to win the franchise’s first divisional round game when they play the Patriots, while QB Matthew Stafford and the Rams visit QB Caleb Williams in Chicago.
Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and analytics writer Seth Walder provides a key stat to know for each matchup. NFL analyst Ben Solak also gives us bold predictions, while NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies one matchup X factor to watch. Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks an intriguing bet for each game, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating crews. Plus, our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection, and four analysts — Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the full divisional slate.
Jump to a matchup:
BUF-DEN | SF-SEA
HOU-NE | LAR-CHI
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | DEN -1.5 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bills: Buffalo is trying to make it to a second straight AFC Championship Game and the third of QB Josh Allen‘s career. But that will be a tough task for a Bills offense dealing with a plethora of wide receiver injuries (Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer). Allen is also banged up (right foot, left knee and right finger injuries) but was a full participant in Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices. Protecting Allen will be a top priority, especially against a Broncos defense that had 68 sacks in the regular season (tied for fifth most since 1963, when sacks were first tracked). — Alaina Getzenberg
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: There’s a double dip of postseason drama for Denver. For some fans, Allen will always be the one that got away because the Broncos and then-GM John Elway didn’t draft him in 2018. Add that to the Bills shoving the Broncos out of the playoffs a year ago in a 31-7 wild-card win. The Bills bring the league’s No. 1 rushing attack (159.6 yards per game) and the NFL’s leading rusher in James Cook III (1,621 yards) this time around. Two of the three teams that beat the Broncos this season (the Colts and Chargers) rushed for more than 100 yards. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: It’s no secret that run defense is the Bills’ weakness. They rank 31st in EPA allowed per designed run. Can the Broncos capitalize? Denver is recording just minus-0.04 EPA per designed run, which is well below its 0.12 EPA per dropback. And the Broncos lean pass heavy. Denver has the fifth-highest pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Bold prediction: Broncos RB RJ Harvey will have his first 100-yard game as the team prioritizes bleeding the clock and winning field position against the explosive Bills offense. Harvey’s career high is 75 yards, but with J.K. Dobbins (foot) absent, it’s time for the rookie to power the offense. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Bills WR Brandin Cooks. He has seven receptions for 159 yards in his past two games. Cooks is a vertical stretch target for Allen and will have opportunities to win downfield versus the Broncos’ man-heavy defense. The Bills will need to create explosive plays to pull off the upset. — Bowen
One intriguing bet: Under 46.5. Buffalo can move the ball, but it will face a Denver defense with the best red zone efficiency rate in the league (42.6%). The Broncos struggle to finish drives on offense, which means fewer touchdowns from both sides and longer possessions. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Broncos were flagged for an NFL-high 20 defensive pass interference penalties this season, including eight by CB Riley Moss. Their aggressive nature helps in many instances, but it cost them 350 yards in the regular season. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 20, Bills 17
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Solak’s pick: Broncos 19, Bills 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 21
FPI prediction: DEN, 50.7% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: How NFL players prepare for the coldest games of the year … How DC Joseph has resurrected career, Broncos’ defense … Bills’ WR Shavers played with torn ACL in 2nd half vs. Jaguars … Broncos want to create more turnovers in the NFL playoffs
1:17
Why Orlovsky is confident the Bills are ‘built to beat Denver’
Dan Orlovsky explains why the Broncos are the best matchup the Bills could have hoped for heading into their divisional round game.
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | SEA -7 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the 49ers: There was a 17-week gap between their first two matchups, but there’s little to no buffer this time around. The Niners played one game since they last saw the Seahawks, and Seattle is playing consecutive games against San Francisco. Coach Kyle Shanahan cautioned this week against paralysis by analysis, wanting to ensure his team doesn’t overthink what went wrong in that Week 18 loss. WR Kendrick Bourne sees the short turnaround as an advantage: “It’s almost better to play a team closer to each other because you’re more familiar, more aware of what they’re going to do.” — Nick Wagoner
What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: Seattle delivered a defensive masterpiece in Week 18, holding San Francisco to 173 total yards and a field goal. If the Seahawks want to come anywhere close to replicating that, they’ll have to tackle like they did two weeks ago. Coach Mike Macdonald considers San Francisco to be the NFL’s best offense when it comes to yards after the catch, but his defense held the 49ers to 2.7 YAC in their last meeting. “There’s some plays where guys were in tough spots, but guys were playing with great effort, and when you do that, you can take some of those more aggressive angles to eliminate some of that space,” Macdonald said. “And the guys did a great job of that.” — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has recorded an NFL-worst minus-180 rush yards over expected this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And the Seahawks are the best run defense in the league by EPA per play and opponent success rate. So, the ground game doesn’t look like a viable option for the 49ers. They’ll have better luck getting the ball to McCaffrey through the air. — Walder
Bold prediction: With Seahawks QB Sam Darnold dealing with an oblique injury, we will get a goal-line snap from rookie QB Jalen Milroe. On third-and-goal from the 2-yard line, he hits a designed QB run for a walk-in touchdown. The crowd goes wild. — Solak
0:52
49ers not worried about Week 18 loss to Seahawks
Nick Wagoner details the 49ers not thinking about their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks.
Matchup X factor: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III. In Week 18, he had four carries of 10 or more yards, finishing with 97 rushing yards. In Klint Kubiak’s zone run scheme, Walker can get to the edges or press the ball through creases of daylight, which creates offensive tempo for Seattle. — Bowen
One intriguing bet: Seahawks -7. Seattle dictates pace, wins early downs and drains the clock. The San Francisco offense collapses when forced underneath, and now the 49ers don’t have TE George Kittle (torn Achilles). Seattle already proved this script works in Week 18. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: This game will feature two of the NFL’s least-penalized teams. The 49ers finished the season with the second-lowest total (102), while the Seahawks (117) ranked eighth. Referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew threw the fifth-fewest flags per game (13.7). — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 21, 49ers 10
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 30, 49ers 17
Solak’s pick: Seahawks 20, 49ers 13
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 59.2% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: 49ers’ Warner not ruling out return against Seahawks … How Seahawks started over at QB with Darnold
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | ESPN | NE -3 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Texans: Houston is in the divisional round for the third straight season, but the franchise is 0-6 all time in these matchups. QB C.J. Stroud views this divisional game as an exciting chance to prove something. “I think it’s a great opportunity for us to go out there in our next game and put our best foot ahead of us and try to get a ‘W’ in a harsh environment against a really good football team,” Stroud said. “So, it’s just something on our mind that we need to get done. That’s all our focus is right now.” — DJ Bien-Aime
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: Coach Mike Vrabel called the Texans the best defense his team has faced to date. Among the key areas for New England is the left side of the offensive line with rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Campbell (LSU) recalled facing DE Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) as a freshman in college, and now they meet again in a pivotal matchup. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots average 8.6 air yards per attempt, the third-highest mark in the NFL. But the Texans’ defense allows only 4.8 air yards per attempt, the league’s lowest. Will QB Drake Maye have enough time — and will his receivers get open enough — for him to throw downfield? — Walder
Bold prediction: Look for rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to score on big plays against man coverage downfield as Houston’s offense continues to thrive with a menu of run, run, run, run, shot play. The Texans might be absent WR Nico Collins (concussion) for this game, but their receiver corps is deeper and more diverse than people realize. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Texans S Calen Bullock. He can limit the Patriots’ vertical passing game, using his range to track the ball from the post or the deep half. And Bullock brings a playmaking element to the field, with four interceptions this season, plus a pick-six off Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers in their wild-card win. — Bowen
One intriguing bet: Patriots -3. That’s a number built for New England to win ugly at home. Houston’s defense travels, but the offense sometimes doesn’t — especially banged up and on the road. New England can absorb sacks, control field position and hit just enough explosive plays to pull away late. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Texans have been hurt more by special teams penalties than all but two teams, based on EPA. They are tied for the 10th-fewest total penalties on special teams (18), but there have been several high-leverage infractions this season. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 24, Texans 17
Moody’s pick: Patriots 20, Texans 13
Solak’s pick: Texans 24, Patriots 17
Walder’s pick: Patriots 27, Texans 20
FPI prediction: NE, 51.7% (by an average of 0.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can Texans WR Kirk replicate wild-card outburst? … Moments from past and present with Patriots’ coach Vrabel
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | LAR -3.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Rams: The temperature in Chicago is forecast to be in the single digits at kickoff, with a wind chill below zero. It was in the 80s in Los Angeles this week as the Rams were preparing for the game. According to ESPN Research, quarterback Matthew Stafford has never played in a game where the temperature was below 20 degrees at kickoff. But Stafford said the cold weather will be an issue for both teams and “you just go out there and execute the best you can.” — Sarah Barshop
What we’re hearing on the Bears: “It feels like it’s dipped a little bit,” coach Ben Johnson said about the Bears’ running game. “Not something that we certainly want. Certainly late in the season, we wanted that to pick up. Playoffs, weather games like this, you certainly want to be able to lean on your run game.” Chicago ran for a season-low 65 yards in Week 18 and 93 (fourth lowest) in the wild-card round. Igniting the run game could spark a faster start on offense. “It’s both efficient runs to stay on track and ahead of the chains, and also explosive runs as well,” Johnson said. “Where can we find a few of those … we’re going to have to be on our ‘A’ game to be able to run it on this crew.” — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Rams rank 10th in EPA allowed per dropback, but they drop to 29th (!) in that same metric when facing play-action. And it’s not just a big play or two, as success rate tells a similar story. That’s a problem against the Bears: Chicago runs play-action on 31% of its dropbacks, the third-highest rate. — Walder
1:00
What can Bears do to slow down Rams’ offense Sunday?
Courtney Cronin reports from the Bears’ facility about the focus the Chicago defense must have when facing the No. 1 offense in the Rams.
Bold prediction: Bears QB Caleb Williams will end the day with 60-plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. The Rams have a devastating pass rush, but Williams is the best escape artist they’ve faced all season — and Bryce Young showed how successful QBs can be on the move against the Rams. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. L.A. must keep Williams in the pocket and limit his ability to create outside of structure. Verse, who had 7.5 sacks and 49 pressures this season, will be tasked with containing the second-year QB, and he gets a positive matchup opposite Bears LT Theo Benedet. — Bowen
One intriguing bet: Rams -4. Chicago can rally late, but weak pressure and leaky coverage will let Stafford dictate early and finish drives. Red zone efficiency tilts outcomes consistently in the playoffs. The Rams’ defense has the third-best rate in the league (46.2%). — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Hochuli’s regular-season crew tied for the second-most flags thrown per game (17.9). The Rams were the least-penalized team (93 total) but drew the fifth most (121) from opponents. The Bears tied for the eight-most committed penalties (139) and drew the sixth fewest (95) from opponents. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Rams 38, Bears 30
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Bears 24
Solak’s pick: Bears 33, Rams 31
Walder’s pick: Rams 33, Bears 28
FPI prediction: LAR, 61.8% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: WR Adams: There’s no place like … the L.A. Rams … Why Bears QB Williams choked up while saluting coach Johnson
