Game of the week – Buffalo Bills (9-4) v New England Patriots (11-2)
There is some serious debate that could run over this week’s top-shelf matchup. The Rams, the NFC’s current No 1 seeds, are welcoming the Lions, who claimed top seed in the conference last season. The Denver Broncos, the AFC leaders, host the Green Bay Packers who still have a shot at a first-round bye in the NFC. Either way you go you won’t be disappointed. Only there is a third way: Buffalo v New England. The emphasis is on the bounty that winning brings rather than the perils of defeat on Sunday. The Patriots can wrestle back the AFC’s No 1 seed while Buffalo can give themselves a shot at snatching the AFC East title from New England. Oh, and two MVP candidates in Drake Maye and Josh Allen are running the show. It could be a classic.
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What the Bills need to do to win: Take care of the football. In Week 5 the Patriots beat the Bills 23-20, or rather Buffalo gifted their rivals a win via three costly turnovers. Allen and company witnessed the devastating effect of turnovers only last week against the Bengals when Joe Burrow’s pair of interceptions completely flipped the snow game allowing the Bills to roar back. If the Bills cut out mistakes to increase their chances of getting into the red zone, they can exploit one of New England’s weaknesses. The Patriots’ opponents score a touchdown on 73.1% of trips into the red zone, the highest rate in the NFL this season.
If Allen can make drives last the distance then his ability to demolish New England with his arm or running power surely drives those odds of scoring even higher. What should allow Buffalo to really settle into moving the ball with precision is how their defense has begun to make plays through Christian Benford. The cornerback is the first player in franchise history to score a defensive touchdown in successive games while making a sack and recovering a fumble in their most recent pair of wins. If that doesn’t inspire some confidence, nothing will.
What the Patriots need to do to win: Pour resources into containing Buffalo’s running game. New England rank third against the run (89.5 yards per game). When they beat the Bills earlier this season, James Cook could only manage 49 yards on 15 carries, his third-lowest total of 2025, and the Pats finished with 118 yards, their fourth-lowest mark on the ground as a team.
If the Patriots slow down Cook, it will make put more burden on Allen to produce against the Patriots’ solid pass defense. The stats haven’t been pretty but New England’s dominance for long passages of most games means opponents have been slinging it here, there and everywhere. Those frequent desperate moments – the Patriots have played pass defense on 60.8% of their plays, fifth-most in the NFL – lead to lens-skewing production. The Patriots pass defense more than passes the eye-test in more regular game conditions. They will be confident of handling Buffalo’s weak receiving crew if given enough looks with Cook out of the equation.
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Rising (in a way) – Indianapolis Colts
After losing starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with an achilles tear the Colts should be toast. They probably still are: their remaining schedule consists of four teams currently in the playoff places – the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Texans. There’s also the small matter of the man who may start in place of Jones on Sunday: 44-year-old grandfather and high school coach Philip Rivers, who the Colts have plucked out of retirement to fill the gap. Rivers, if he plays, will almost certainly fail but the Colts could do with a heartwarming story after the pain of losing Jones. Even if the feelgood narrative only lasts a single snap with Rivers handing it off to Jonathan Taylor for a touchdown run, the veteran will have pressed the pieces back together for a brief moment.
Falling – Detroit Lions
This season the Lions have a bad habit of following up a victory with a defeat. The yo-yo routine has to stop for the team to stand a chance of making the playoffs – they sit on the bubble at 8-5. Only the Lions have not put a winning streak together since sitting 4-1 after beating the Bengals, and a trip to Los Angeles to face the Rams rings alarm bells. LA destroyed Arizona 45-17 last week. Dan Campbell’s threadbare defense, which just added key safety Brian Branch to its list of 10 injured players, may make it easy for the Rams to score at will again. The kicker for the Lions is that the teams one game ahead in the wildcard race, Chicago and San Francisco, face Cleveland and Tennessee. A loss puts Detroit in a tough spot. However, a glimmer of hope remains in a Week 18 meeting with the Bears. Praying for one defeat to catch them up in time rather than two would feel much more achievable.
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Race for the No 1 pick
Three horses are leading the run at the top pick in next year’s draft: the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans. The bottom feeders share a 2-11 record with five more nestled just behind on 3-10. The form book says the Giants and Raiders are the most likely to be duking it out, as they share seven-match losing runs but this is not a battle fought with logic or conventional wisdom. This is a Salvador Dalí inspired fever dream in which wild, random wins from teams on life support emerge at the most awkward moments … with a leg up from the Browns. Yes, Tennessee are still red hot favourites to be choosing first again despite winning last week. The San Francisco machine will run them over on Sunday as the 49ers chase the Rams and Seahawks. The Raiders should stay on their shoulder after a meeting with the Eagles (although who knows these days) while the Giants could make light work of the Commanders and jump into the cluster of teams on three wins.
If the season ended today …
AFC: 1) Denver 11-2; 2) New England 11-2; 3) Jacksonville 9-4; 4) Pittsburgh 7-6; 5) LA Chargers 9-4; 6) Buffalo 9-4; 7) Houston 8-5. Bubble: Indianapolis 8-5
NFC: 1) LA Rams 10-3; 2) Green Bay 9-3-1; 3) Philadelphia 8-5; 4) Carolina 7-6; 5) Seattle 10-3; 6) San Francisco 9-4; 7) Chicago 9-4. Bubble: Detroit 8-5
