The Week 14 NFL schedule for the 2025 season brings some exciting matchups.
Three contests will be for sole possession of first place in their respective divisions: Colts at Jaguars for the AFC South, Steelers at Ravens for the AFC North and Bears at Packers for the NFC North. Plus, the Bengals and QB Joe Burrow are looking to keep their slim postseason hopes alive against the Bills.
We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week. ESPN Research provides a key stat to know, a betting nugget for each contest and what’s at stake for teams regarding the playoffs or NFL draft. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.
Let’s get into the full Week 14 slate, which culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Eagles and Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
IND-JAX | CIN-BUF | PIT-BAL
SEA-ATL | WSH-MIN | NO-TB
MIA-NYJ | TEN-CLE | DEN-LV
LAR-ARI | CHI-GB | HOU-KC
PHI-LAC
Thursday: DAL-DET
Bye: NE, NYG, SF, CAR
1 p.m. ET | CBS | IND -1.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Colts: Indianapolis has not won in Jacksonville since 2014, a remarkable stretch of losses that includes eight different starting QBs, good teams and bad teams. And now the Colts are looking to break the streak at a time when they have so much at stake. Indianapolis had a multigame lead in the AFC South for most of the season, but that lead has been erased. The Colts are now tied with Jacksonville, and the winner of this game will have sole possession of first place. Said coach Shane Steichen: “The urgency, the energy has got to be great this week.” — Stephen Holder
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: It’s the league’s leading rusher (Jonathan Taylor) versus the league’s top-ranked run defense (82.4 yards per game). Taylor has destroyed the Jaguars in Indianapolis (546 yards and four TDs rushing in three games) but has struggled against them in Jacksonville (172 yards, no TDs in four games). Limiting Taylor again is obviously the top priority. “That’s definitely the challenge this week because he is a great back, and they’ve got a great front,” defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile said. — Michael DiRocco
Stat to know: This will be the 49th meeting between the Colts and Jaguars and only the third time both teams have entered at least four games over .500. The other two instances came in Indy in 2005 and 2007 — the Colts won both of those matchups with Peyton Manning at QB. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Colts QB Daniel Jones will throw for 300-plus passing yards. The Jaguars’ defense is pass-inducing with a plus-2% pass rate over expectation against them (third highest), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and also leans more toward zone (66%, eighth-highest rate) than man. Jones and the Colts have been much more efficient against zone than man. — Walder
What’s at stake: The winner will have at least a 60% chance to win the division, per ESPN Analytics, while the loser will drop under 20%. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Colts TE Tyler Warren has scored double-digit fantasy points in just two of his past five games after averaging 14.5 over the first seven. However, he has a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the second-most targets and second-most fantasy points per game to TEs. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange is also in a strong spot against a Colts defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to TEs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars have covered three straight games after going 0-4 ATS (against the spread) in their previous four games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Colts 21, Jaguars 17
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 27, Colts 24
Walder’s pick: Colts 27, Jaguars 23
FPI prediction: IND, 56% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why the Colts have lost their footing in the AFC South … Jaguars’ Coen to face biggest test yet in AFC South race
1 p.m. ET | FOX | BUF -5.5 (53.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Defensive coordinator Al Golden knows getting Buffalo’s offense off the field will be crucial. The Bills lead the league in time of possession (33:10) and plays per drive. Golden said being effective on first and second downs will keep Buffalo from being in good spots on third downs to extend drives. “That’s where Josh [Allen] does a lot of things to beat you — arm, leg, scheme,” Golden said. — Ben Baby
What we’re hearing on the Bills: Turnovers have been a weakness for this Bills offense of late with multiple in each of the past four games. Allen has four straight games with an interception, tied for the second-longest streak of his career (nine straight in 2023). Buffalo can’t keep repeating that formula and being saved by its defense or the other team not taking advantage. “We got to make sure that we’re doing everything in our power to limit [turnovers] and keep the ball on on our side and in time of possession and making sure we score when we have those opportunities,” Allen said. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Bengals RB Chase Brown has had a franchise-record six straight games with 100-plus scrimmage yards. The only players with a longer streak in the past five seasons are the 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey (eight in 2023, seven this season) and the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (seven in 2021). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Bills will post a pass block win rate over 85%, which would be a roughly 96th percentile score this season. Not only do the Bills have the highest pass block win rate in the NFL (72.7%), but the Bengals have the third-worst pass rush win rate (29.3%) and will likely be without DE Trey Hendrickson (hip) again. — Walder
What’s at stake: Cincinnati and Buffalo are facing different battles in the playoff push. The Bills have a 90% chance to make playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics (goes up to 96% with a win and down to 79% with a loss). Meanwhile, the Bengals have a 7% chance to make playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics (goes up to 14% with a win and down to 3% with a loss). See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:23
Why Rich Eisen is adamant that the Bengals’ season isn’t over
Rich Eisen explains why the Bengals still have a chance to make the playoffs.
Fantasy nugget: Brown has a very favorable matchup against a Bills defense that has struggled against RBs all season. Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, and since the Bengals’ Week 10 bye, Brown has averaged 22.3 touches and 17.3 fantasy points. Having Burrow back under center also gives Brown an additional boost to his fantasy ceiling. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records (0-4 ATS in the past four games) this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bengals 28, Bills 27
Moody’s pick: Bills 27, Bengals 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 31, Bengals 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 62.9% (by an average of 5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills’ defense needs to continue recent form against Bengals
1 p.m. ET | CBS | BAL -6 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Steelers: During minicamp, defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was blunt: “We had a Baltimore problem last year. … They ran the ball down our throats, and we have to fix that if we want to contend in this division.” The Steelers will see whether they’ve truly fixed those issues as they face the Ravens for the first time since the team rushed for 299 yards in the wild-card blowout. They managed to hold Colts’ Jonathan Taylor to 45 yards on 14 carries a month ago, but the Steelers rank 17th allowing 117.7 rushing yards per game. The Ravens, meanwhile, rank fifth in rushing offense, averaging 136.8 yards per game. — Brooke Pryor
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: The Ravens have increased their ball security drills in practice. Baltimore, which turned the ball over five times in its last game, is going against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks second in the NFL with 22 takeaways. Under coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 5-13 (.278) when they commit multiple turnovers against the Steelers. “[Ball security] has to be on your mind — at the forefront of your mind — at all times when you’re a ball handler,” Harbaugh said. “That’s something that we emphasize, we give high regard to, and we talk about and push, demand every single day.” — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: The Ravens started the season with a 1-5 record while allowing 32.3 points per game (last in the NFL through Week 6). They are 5-1 since, allowing 16.5 points per game (best in the NFL since Week 7). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Steelers slot CB Brandin Echols will allow at least five receptions, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Echols is coming off a big game that included an interception, but on the season, he has allowed 1.3 yards per coverage snap — fourth most among slot corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. — Walder
What’s at stake: The winner will be first place in the AFC North. According to ESPN Analytics, the Ravens enter with a 60% chance to win the division, which would increase to 75% with a win or fall to 30% with a loss. The Steelers enter with a 33% chance to win the division, which increases to 63% with a win and falls to 18% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson‘s inconsistent play over the past four games, during which he has averaged just 8.7 fantasy points, has been well documented. However, WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews have favorable matchups against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs and the third most to TEs. The Ravens’ offense has been a disaster lately, but this matchup is too good to bench either player. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 8-1 in the past nine Steelers-Ravens meetings. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 19
Moody’s pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Walder’s pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 66.1% (by an average of 6.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers ‘plotting course to move forward’ with Ravens up next … With AFC North implications, Ravens eager to control ‘own destiny’ vs. Steelers … Steelers claim veteran WR Thielen, waive CB Slay
1 p.m. ET | FOX | SEA -7 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: QB Sam Darnold is coming off his worst performance of the season in terms of Total QBR (18.3), as he and the offense struggled to handle a barrage of pressure the Vikings sent last week. The most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL, Minnesota sent an extra rusher on 60% of Darnold’s dropbacks, and after taking only 11 sacks over the first 11 games, he was dropped four times. Atlanta is second in the league in blitz rate under coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, so Darnold & Co. must have a better plan this week. “They’re an aggressive unit,” coach Mike Macdonald said. “They play hard, [Ulbrich] does a really good job affecting the quarterback.” — Brady Henderson
What we’re hearing on the Falcons: QB Kirk Cousins has run a clean operation for the most part since taking over for Michael Penix Jr. (knee), keeping the Falcons in the past two games with a chance to win late. But most of what Cousins has done has been underneath — against the Jets, he was 20-of-24 on passes of under 10 air yards for 215 yards and a touchdown, per NFL Next Gen Stats. When it comes to downfield passes, Cousins has the lowest completion percentage (35.7%) among qualified QBs, and the Seahawks just happen to be allowing a league-low 49.4 passer rating on downfield passes. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: Even though Falcons WR Drake London did not play the past two games because of a knee injury, he had 100 receiving yards in three straight games before he was out. Four straight would tie the longest streak by a player this season (Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson will record at least seven receptions. The Seahawks’ defense allows targets to RBs 21% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. And with Seattle’s defense being so stout against the run, the Falcons surely will look to get Robinson the ball in other ways. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Seahawks have an 88.6% chance to make the playoffs, which increases to 95.1% with a win and falls to 78.4% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:26
Can Rashid Shaheed pay off for fantasy managers in Week 14?
Daniel Dopp loves the matchup for Rashid Shaheed vs. the Falcons in Week 14.
Fantasy nugget: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III has played in over 50% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps for two straight weeks. He has logged at least 14 touches in back-to-back games, and his receiving involvement and increased goal-line usage are encouraging. The Falcons’ defense has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks have the best record ATS (9-3) this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 14
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 30, Falcons 17
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 16
FPI prediction: SEA, 60.9% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jones IV continues to spark Seahawks
1 p.m. ET | FOX | MIN -2.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: Sunday will provide another test for Washington’s offensive line, which has continued to improve thanks in part to rookie RT Josh Conerly Jr.’s growth. Since the Commanders’ Week 6 bye, the Vikings have blitzed on 58% of opposing QB dropbacks. LB Eric Wilson‘s pressure rate of 23.5% is the highest of any player who has rushed the QB at least 100 times this season. But Washington did a good job versus Denver’s pass rush, allowing only two sacks to the NFL’s best unit. The Commanders have allowed only five sacks over the past three games combined, led by LT Laremy Tunsil. “He’s been phenomenal. … It’s hard to find [a left tackle] that’s played better,” offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said. — John Keim
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: Coach Kevin O’Connell this week imposed a new set of priorities on QB J.J. McCarthy, who will return to the lineup after a concussion kept him out last week. Instead of focusing on mechanics and footwork, O’Connell wants him to concentrate on decision-making. “I want him to have a clear head and a clear mind to just go play,” O’Connell said. Those decisions don’t just include where to throw the ball, but also when to run and how to protect himself when he does. “He can impact the game athletically,” O’Connell said, “but it can’t come at a cost of not having him in there.” — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Commanders QB Marcus Mariota has had four straight starts with at least 200 passing yards and a passing TD, the second-longest streak of his career after a seven-game run in 2016. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Commanders K Jake Moody will miss an extra point. Moody has been perfect on extra points, but he has a minus-8% field goal percentage over expectation — third worst among kickers with at least 10 field goal attempts. — Walder
What’s at stake: As of Week 13, both teams are projected to pick in the top 10 in the 2026 NFL draft, according to ESPN’s FPI. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Commanders | Vikings
Fantasy nugget: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has had a disappointing season so far, averaging just 8.7 targets and 12.9 fantasy points per game. In Week 13, he managed only two receptions for a career-low 4 yards with backup QB Max Brosmer under center. Even so, it’s difficult to bench Jefferson against a Commanders defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their past four games (tied for the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Commanders 23, Vikings 20
Moody’s pick: Commanders 23, Vikings 16
Walder’s pick: Vikings 23, Commanders 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 50.4% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Burks’ incredible catch highlighted big night for Commanders receivers … A reckoning for Vikings’ offense as McCarthy returns … Quinn might keep calling defense in 2026
1 p.m. ET | CBS | TB -8.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Saints: WR Devaughn Vele had his breakout game last week, catching eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He would like to continue growing his role in the passing game with RB Alvin Kamara (knee) potentially sidelined again. “I’m a very competitive guy and at the end of the day I want to win games. I’m grateful today I had a career day for myself,” Vele said after the game. “But at the end of the day, I want to win games. And so I see those stats as a team effort rather than individual effort.” — Katherine Terrell
What we’re hearing on the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay might be just a half game ahead of the surging Panthers in the NFC South, but QB Baker Mayfield has the blinders on and is focused on what’s right in front of him: the Saints. When asked Wednesday about his former offensive coordinator Dave Canales (current Panthers coach), Mayfield said, “We’ve got the Saints this week. Dave can do what he wants.” Mayfield was then asked about facing the Panthers twice. “Yeah … not yet. We play the Saints this week.” — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Saints WR Chris Olave‘s 115 targets this season are third most behind only the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase (132) and the Cardinals’ Trey McBride (118). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean will record an interception. Among the 11 corners who have allowed under 0.8 yards per coverage snap this season (minimum 200 coverage snaps), Dean has the highest target rate at 15%. In other words: He’s preventing opposing WRs from getting production despite getting thrown at an average amount. I could see him getting a pick off QB Tyler Shough. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Buccaneers have a half-game lead over the Panthers for first place in NFC South. They also have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, ahead of only the Saints. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:14
Is Baker Mayfield a top-12 QB in Week 14?
Field Yates explains why Baker Mayfield is a borderline top-12 fantasy quarterback vs. the Saints.
Injuries: Saints | Buccaneers
Fantasy nugget: Olave will remain the top option in the Saints’ passing game even as he battles a back injury. He posted his lowest number of receiving yards since Week 4 on Sunday, but he did record his fifth touchdown. He also has a favorable matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to WRs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the Buccaneers’ largest favorite role of the season. Mayfield is 2-5 ATS in his career as a favorite of eight or more points. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Buccaneers 20, Saints 13
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Saints 14
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Saints 17
FPI prediction: TB, 73.8% (by an average of 9.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Saints’ Jordan shows he isn’t ‘out to pasture’ just yet … Free pints! Northern Ireland’s Smyth a smash in Saints debut
1 p.m. ET | CBS | MIA -2.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: RB De’Von Achane is on pace to set a new career high in touches for the third straight season. His ability to handle a heavy workload was criticized entering the 2023 draft, but he didn’t miss a game last season and hasn’t this season. Coach Mike McDaniel said he’s not worried about Achane’s durability because he can shield himself from taking hits head on — so don’t expect the Achane train to slow down anytime soon. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
What we’re hearing on the Jets: A big topic of conversation around the Jets this week is how to create turnovers. They have only two takeaways, the fewest through 12 games in NFL history. Every other team has at least seven. Coach Aaron Glenn said the interception drought is “puzzling.” Now here come the Dolphins, who have 18 giveaways (seventh most). That includes 14 interceptions by QB Tua Tagovailoa. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Dolphins have lost seven straight games (including playoffs) in sub-45-degree temperatures at kickoff, with their last win in those conditions on Dec. 19, 2019, at New England. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson will be held without a pass rush win. He is coming off a big game that included 1.5 sacks and three QB hits, but in general, he has had a quiet sophomore season and will face Jets OT Armand Membou, who has had a solid rookie season. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. The Jets would be eliminated from playoff contention with either a loss or wins by both the Bills and the Jaguars. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Jets RB Breece Hall continues to dominate touches in the team’s backfield over the past four games, averaging 19.2 during that span. He provides managers with a high floor but not necessarily a high ceiling, as he has averaged just 14.3 fantasy points. That could change against Miami; the Dolphins’ defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 4-1 ATS as home underdogs this season. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 24
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 17
FPI prediction: MIA, 53.6% (by an average of 1.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Dolphins riding Achane, run game to late-season surge … Despite being 3-9, here are 10 small victories for the Jets
1 p.m. ET | FOX | CLE -4.5 (33.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Titans: All of the attention is on the QB matchup between rookies Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, but the star of this game is DE Myles Garrett and his 19 sacks. Titans OT Peter Skoronski is well aware of Garrett’s unique ability, “He’s one of one, and you have to game plan for a guy like that because he’s an absolute game wrecker that has an insane amount of sacks and will break that record at some point.” — Turron Davenport
What we’re hearing on the Browns: Garrett is four sacks away from breaking the NFL’s single-season sack record (22.5). It’s not inconceivable that he could reach the mark against the Titans and Ward, who has taken the most sacks this season (48). “If Myles is able to cross that bridge … that says an awful lot, particularly [with] a lot of the players that have played in the past,” defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz said. — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins has six rushing touchdowns in the team’s three wins. In the eight losses he has played in, he has only one. His seven rushing touchdowns are tied with Giants QB Jaxson Dart for most among rookies this season and are most by a Browns rookie since Nick Chubb had eight in 2018. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Browns will hold Titans RB Tony Pollard under 30 rushing yards. The Browns are allowing just a 31% success rate on opponent runs, best in the league. The Titans’ 35% offensive success rate on runs is third worst. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention, and the Browns are at the bottom of the AFC North standings — so this game is all about draft picks. The Titans have a 48% chance at the No. 1 pick, according to ESPN Analytics; that goes up to 67% with a loss and down to 28% with a win. The Browns currently have an 8% chance for the top pick, according to ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:45
Stephen A.: Shedeur Sanders should start the rest of the season
Stephen A. Smith breaks down why the Browns should start Shedeur Sanders at quarterback for the rest of the season.
Fantasy nugget: Judkins is trending up at the perfect time for fantasy managers. He has accumulated 42 touches and 32.6 fantasy points over his past two games and is well positioned for success against a Titans defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 1-13-1 ATS in December since 2022 (worst in the NFL). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Browns 21, Titans 17
Moody’s pick: Browns 17, Titans 14
Walder’s pick: Titans 20, Browns 16
FPI prediction: CLE, 51.5% (by an average of 0.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Despite playoff elimination, Titans players still ‘hungry’ to win … Tracking sack record pace for Garrett … Browns’ Sanders, Jeudy downplay sideline spat
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | DEN -7.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: With one sack in this game, the Broncos will reach 52 — the same number of sacks the 2015 defense had in the entire regular season. Granted, the 2015 defense cemented its legacy with a ferocious postseason run that ended with a Super Bowl 50 win. But this season’s defense is still on pace to at least tie the NFL’s single-season sack record (72), and the Raiders have allowed the second-highest sack total in the league (46 or 3.8 per game). — Jeff Legwold
What we’re hearing on the Raiders: TE Brock Bowers had four catches for 63 yards and two touchdowns last week. But he was targeted just four times — tied for the second lowest in a game of his career. Coach Pete Carroll said the Raiders intended to give Bowers at least 10 targets, but because of the Chargers’ ability to pressure QB Geno Smith, that didn’t work out. In the Raiders’ previous matchup against Denver, Bowers was held to one catch for 31 yards and three targets. With CB Pat Surtain II back in the lineup, it’s expected that he will match up against Bowers, possibly making it a challenge for the All-Pro TE to get his fair share of targets. In Week 12 last season, Surtain lined up against Bowers on 15 snaps, holding him to just one catch for 9 yards on four targets. — Ryan McFadden
Stat to know: Smith has a 30.8 Total QBR this season, which ranks 31st among 31 qualifying passers. He’s on pace to have the lowest Total QBR by a Raiders QB since JaMarcus Russell in 2008 (29). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos LT Garett Bolles will record a 100% pass block win rate in the game. Bolles ranks sixth in the category (94.5%), and he has the benefit of not facing Maxx Crosby on Sunday, who typically aligns opposite the RT. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos enter with an 86% chance to win AFC West, which increases to 91% with a win and drops to 74% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Broncos RB RJ Harvey has the backfield to himself for the rest of the season and delivered in Week 13 with 16 touches and 21.2 fantasy points. He now gets an excellent matchup this week: The Raiders’ defense has given up several big performances to RBs since Week 9, including 16.5 to the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne Jr., 16.7 to the Browns’ Quinshon Judkins and 20.7 to Chargers’ Kimani Vidal. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos are 6-0 outright and 1-5 ATS against teams with losing records this season (0-4 ATS past four). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 16
Moody’s pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 16
Walder’s pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 8
FPI prediction: DEN, 68.7% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: TE Engram emerging at right time for Broncos … Did the Raiders’ offense improve in their first game post-Kelly? … Tracking Broncos’ push for single-season team sack record
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | LAR -8.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Rams: The Cardinals are 0-8 against teams that entered their games with a winning record, which is the most such losses in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. But Rams coach Sean McVay said Arizona poses “a lot of issues on both sides of the football.” “I think if you look at the record you’re kidding yourself, because this is a team that really, outside of the Seattle and the San Francisco game, every one of those games they’ve been in and it’s been right down to the wire and one possession games,” McVay said. — Sarah Barshop
What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: Arizona’s offense is entering with one of the worst fourth-down rates but will face a Rams defense that’s middle of the pack in stopping those plays. Arizona is ranked 30th in fourth-down conversions (38.9%), while the Rams’ defense is ranked 13th with a stop rate of 54.1%. Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett said Arizona is not far from being able to convert more. “I think it’s playing a little bit harder and cleaning up a few minor details. We got the look that we wanted for the flip play, and it just didn’t strain enough. I think the week before [I] just didn’t make the throw. It’s just minor little things in those key clutch situations that you want to be able to make,” Brissett said. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Rams RB Kyren Williams is 132 rushing yards shy of becoming the first Rams player with 1,000 rushing yards in three straight seasons since Steven Jackson (eight straight, 2005-2012). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Cardinals will not have a positive EPA sweep run all game. No team runs sweeps more often than Arizona, but the Rams have not allowed a single successful sweep play all season. Granted, the sample is tiny: seven sweeps against them in 2025. But we should get a better sense of whether this is a real ability of the Rams’ defense after they play the Cardinals. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams have the highest chance (30%) to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to ESPN Analytics. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:57
Why Field Yates is still confident in Matthew Stafford for Week 14
Field Yates breaks down Matthew Stafford’s fantasy Week 13 performance and outlook against the Cardinals in Week 14.
Fantasy nugget: Rams QB Matthew Stafford disappointed managers with just 11.6 fantasy points in Week 13 after scoring 22 or more in three of his previous four games. He has a strong chance to rebound this week in a matchup that should be high scoring. With one of the best receiving duos in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Stafford is positioned for success. QBs have averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game against Arizona this season. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games as underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 20
Moody’s pick: Rams 35, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 16
FPI prediction: LAR, 66% (by an average of 6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams McVay not focused on potential playoff seeding
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | GB -6.5 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bears: Coach Ben Johnson did not mince words when he said the Bears are winning games “in spite of our passing game, not because of it,” but he clarified that he isn’t dissatisfied with the play of Caleb Williams. The QB was off target on 27% of his passes Sunday against the Eagles — which Johnson attributed to factors such as the wind, ball placement and route depth — and had a 47.2% completion rate. While Williams’ accuracy isn’t where it needs to be, Johnson doesn’t seem too worried. “I know what the stats say,” Johnson said. “Throw those out of the window. He’s doing a really good job managing the ballgame. That’s step No. 1 for the quarterback. And so he’s going to continue to get better.” — Courtney Cronin
What we’re hearing on the Packers: The way the Bears ran the football last week caught the Packers’ attention. And the problem for Green Bay is it lost one of its best run defenders, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, for the season to an ankle injury. “Certainly he’s a guy that’s going to be pretty tough to replace,” coach Matt LaFleur said. Given that they traded DT Kenny Clark to Dallas as part of the trade for Micah Parsons, the Packers are down to their Nos. 3 and 4 tackles from training camp in Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Williams has been sacked only 19 times this season (1.6 per game) after being sacked 68 times in 2024 (4.0 per game). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Packers will hold the Bears to under a 38% success rate on the ground. Chicago’s running game has been strong ever since its Week 5 bye (51% success rate, second best in that span), but the Packers are particularly adept at stopping outside zone runs (3.4 yards per carry). — Walder
What’s at stake: These teams will play each other again in two weeks. With a win, the Bears would have a 64% chance to win the NFC North, but that would fall to 22% with a loss, according to ESPN Analytics. Meanwhile, the Packers have a 71% chance to win the NFC North with a win, which drops to 27% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Packers WR Christian Watson has been superb over the past three games. He has seen at least five targets in each of those games and has scored 18 or more fantasy points in two of them. Watson now draws a very favorable matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to WRs and 24 touchdown passes, the fourth most in the league. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 1-6 ATS and 4-2-1 outright when laying at least six points this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bears 24, Packers 20
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 22
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: GB, 68.5% (by an average of 7.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will the Bears back up Ben Johnson’s shot at Matt LaFleur? … Bears’ Johnson: ‘Very pleased’ with QB Williams … Packers’ Wicks even impressed the official
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | KC -3.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Texans: It’s supposed to get as cold as sub-30 degrees in Kansas City on Sunday. It’ll be the first time all season that Houston plays in cold weather. Coach DeMeco Ryans said the Texans’ strategy “for playing in the cold is not to focus on it too much. It’s a mindset factor.” The Texans under Ryans are 0-2 in Arrowhead Stadium, and both times the weather was sub-40 degrees. — DJ Bien-Aime
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: Kansas City needs to see immediate improvement in its pass rush production, as Steve Spagnuolo’s unit hasn’t recorded a sack in its past 11 quarters. DT Chris Jones, the Chiefs’ best pass rusher, said he understands he’ll need to lead his teammates in getting to Texans QB C.J. Stroud. “We’ve got a lot of talented guys in the room that can rush the passer,” Jones said. “We’ve got to win more as a unit. We’ve got to make sure we’re executing all our blitzes, all our one-on-ones. Close, but no cigar. We need the cigar at this point.” — Nate Taylor
Stat to know: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 5-1 in his career against the Texans (including the playoffs) and has won every game against them since losing his first game versus Houston in Week 6 of 2019. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Texans will be held under 50 yards after the catch (YAC), which would be their lowest mark of the season. Only 40% of Houston’s passing yards come from YAC, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, and the Chiefs defense has allowed minus-33 YAC over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats — the fewest in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs and Texans rank among the top five teams with the most to gain or lose this week, according to ESPN Analytics. With a win, the Chiefs will have a 55.2% chance to make the playoffs, but they drop to 12.1% with a loss. The Texans would have a 77.9% chance to reach the playoffs with a win but fall to 37.6% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:12
Why Kurt Warner says C.J. Stroud is the key to Chiefs-Texans
Kurt Warner tells Rich Eisen that C.J. Stroud’s efficiency will decide the pivotal Chiefs-Texans matchup.
Fantasy nugget: Fantasy managers with Mahomes should temper expectations against a Texans defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. Houston also gives up the second-fewest points to WRs and the fourth-fewest to TEs. The Texans’ defense has the personnel to cause problems for Mahomes, and the Chiefs don’t have a strong enough running game or offensive line to create real challenges for Houston. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 9-3 in Texans games this season, tied for the highest under rate in the NFL. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 26, Texans 21
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 26, Texans 20
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 20
FPI prediction: KC, 64.9% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Finishing has been difference for Texans in one-score games … Reid, Chiefs defiant as playoff hopes dwindle … Chiefs LT Simmons out at least four games with wrist injury
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN | PHI -3 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Eagles: Philadelphia’s run defense will be under the microscope after yielding 281 yards and a pair of touchdowns to the Bears. “Biggest issues were, one, they run the ball very well. I didn’t do a good enough job of preparing our squad for the quality and the diversity of their run game. We didn’t play the run and the blocks the way we had been playing,” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. And now the Eagles will be dealing with the absence of standout DT Jalen Carter, who recently underwent a procedure on both of his shoulders and is considered week to week, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. It will fall to Moro Ojomo and Jordan Davis to pick up much of the slack. — Tim McManus
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: The Chargers — typically cautious with injury information — have been notably upbeat about QB Justin Herbert after his surgery to repair a left hand fracture Monday. Herbert said he’s preparing to play, and coach Jim Harbaugh said the same, adding that he’s “optimistic.” Given their public tone and Herbert’s history of playing through injuries — including fractured rib cartilage and multiple ankle sprains, only missing games in his career because of an index finger fracture in his throwing hand — the signs point to him starting Monday night. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Eagles have allowed 898 total yards over their past two games, their second most allowed over a two-game span with coach Nick Sirianni, behind Weeks 12 to 13 of the 2023 season (961). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers CB Cam Hart will allow at least five receptions in coverage, which would be a season high for him, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Hart has allowed a 20% target rate this season, second most among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps (only behind the Eagles’ Adoree’ Jackson). — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles currently have a 90% chance to win NFC East, according to ESPN Analytics. That jumps to 95% with a win and falls to 83% with a loss (independent of other results). The Chargers have a 60% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances jump to 74% with a win and fall to 50% with a loss (independent of other results). See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Chargers would be wise to lean on the running game with Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal, especially with Herbert recovering. Philadelphia’s defensive front ranks 27th in run block win rate and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 13-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Sirianni (19-6 ATS including playoffs). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 28, Chargers 20
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Chargers 17
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Chargers 14
FPI prediction: PHI, 58.7% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Eagles’ Patullo says vandalism of house ‘crosses the line’ … Herbert preparing to play vs. Eagles on MNF
