Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered in the eleventh hour. Don’t miss our last-minute prep for a loaded slate.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three potentially big surprises and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favorite bet for Week 4.
Will Bears receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze put up big numbers? Could Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter get after Cam Ward? Which two quarterbacks might be good fantasy sleepers? And should we expect the Chargers to not only win but also cover against the Giants in quarterback Jaxson Dart‘s debut? Let’s dive in.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Best bet
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 4 winners
Are edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter in for a huge day against the Titans?
In short: Oh yes. The Texans rank third in pass rush win rate this season (49%), while the Titans are below average in pass block win rate (57%). Star rushers Anderson and Hunter both rank in the top 10 in pass rush win rate at edge and each have multiple sacks on the season, despite the fact that Houston is winless. And critically, rookie quarterback Cam Ward is taking sacks at a massive 13% rate — third-most this season and higher than any QBR-qualified quarterback last season.
It’s easier to get sacks when leading, and we certainly should expect that to be the case Sunday. My sack model gives Anderson (59%) and Hunter (57%) strong chances to record at least one sack. No other pass rusher is over 52%. Each player has a 22% chance to record two sacks or more, too.
Could Bears wide receiver DJ Moore get going against the Raiders?
ESPN’s receiver scores returned this week, and Moore was surprisingly the No. 1 player. It was a surprise considering Moore’s start to the season has been relatively pedestrian: 12 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. But the open score indicates Moore (and perhaps the scheme) has been doing its job, so there could be a whole lot more yards in his future.
The spike could start as soon as this week. Though Moore moves around in his alignment, he plays as an outside receiver on the left side more than anywhere else. That should match him up against Raiders cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly, who has allowed 1.5 yards per coverage snap, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That is not only much higher than average for an outside corner, but it’s also the highest among Raiders defenders with at least 75 coverage snaps this season.
Who will win a strength vs. strength matchup on the ground in the Eagles-Buccaneers game?
The whole world knows the Eagles like to run the ball and do it well. They have the third-lowest pass rate over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) this season and rank first in EPA per designed carry. But the Buccaneers are a particularly stiff challenge on that front, as they rank first in defensive EPA per designed carry.
Tampa Bay’s three opponents have averaged minus-0.03 EPA per play when playing other teams this season, but minus-0.30 against the Buccaneers. Philadelphia’s most common run type is outside zone (44%), and the Bucs have proven adept at stopping it, allowing just 2.4 yards per carry to opponents running outside zone this season.
Whichever team’s strength wins out Sunday will have the upper hand in this matchup.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (39.1% rostered)
Stafford doesn’t offer much rushing upside, but he throws to one of the league’s best wide receiver tandems in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. He gets a favorable home matchup against a Colts defense, too. The Rams’ offensive line should provide solid protection against a Colts front that ranks 29th in pass rush win rate. Establishing the run could set Stafford up to capitalize through the air, especially with Indianapolis missing cornerback Kenny Moore II.
1:45
Should the Rams be encouraged despite loss to Eagles?
Rex Ryan explains why the Rams proved they are among the best teams in the NFL even with a loss to the Eagles.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (34.9% rostered)
I wrote about Doubs here last week, but he had a disappointing performance against the Browns with 4.5 fantasy points. Still, Week 4 presents a great opportunity, as the Cowboys’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. With Jayden Reed out and tight end Tucker Kraft playing through a knee injury, Doubs should see heavy involvement.
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans (26.2% rostered)
Marks’ role has grown in the each of the past two games with the Texans’ offense. While Nick Chubb leads their backfield in touches, Marks is averaging more yards per carry (4.6) than Chubb (3.9). The rookie’s high-level traits give him an edge behind a Houston offensive line that ranks just 21st in run block win rate, and he faces a Titans defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. This could be the week Marks breaks out.
Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (20.6% rostered)
Smith is coming off a 26-point fantasy performance against the Commanders. The Raiders lean heavily on the vertical passing game, and a significant portion of his production has come on deep throws. He now faces a banged-up Bears secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (behind only the Dolphins and Cowboys). Smith is well-positioned to keep producing with playmakers such as Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker at his disposal.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (18.5% rostered)
Okonkwo had nine receptions for 101 yards over the past two weeks and just led the Titans with 66 yards in Week 3. With 16 targets through three games and growing chemistry with rookie QB Cam Ward, he’s trending up. The Texans have been tough on tight ends, but they did allow nine receptions to the position last week against the Jaguars, giving Okonkwo a clear path to volume.
Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …
Broncos QB Bo Nix throws an interception against the Bengals
Nix has thrown at least one interception in two games this season, and the tape shows some areas of concern. He currently has an off-target rate of 20.8%, which ranks 25th in the league, and he has been late on throws outside the numbers. Plus, his footwork looks rushed, and that could lead to even more ball location issues. The Bengals have four interceptions through three weeks, and I see them getting another one on Monday night.
Bears WR Rome Odunze gets back into the end zone against the Raiders
In each game this season, Odunze has seen seven or more targets and caught at least one touchdown. The emerging No.1 receiver for quarterback Caleb Williams, Odunze gets a Raiders defense that’s allowing 237 passing yards per game (24th in the league).
Look for Bears coach Ben Johnson to isolate Odunze on vertical throws, and set him up in the low red zone.
Packers WR Matthew Golden sets a career high against the Cowboys
The rookie has caught just six of eight targets over his first three games, but he had four receptions and 52 yards against the Browns’ top-tier defense in Week 3. Against a Dallas unit that’s lacking impact players and is currently allowing a league-worst 288 passing yards per game, look for Golden to create explosive plays and finish with over 70 receiving yards. The Packers should have answers for a Cowboys defense that plays the most zone coverage in the NFL (87% of opponent dropbacks).
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 at New York Giants
I’m still licking my wounds from the Rams +3.5 that I went with last week. But this week, rookie Jaxson Dart is a wild card in his first start. He’s mobile, creative and the kind of rookie who can make something happen when the play breaks down. But debuts are rarely smooth, and this is a brutal draw.
Through three weeks, the Chargers have allowed just 5.5 yards per pass and the lowest completion rate on deep throws in the league. They’re disciplined on the back end and stingy inside the 20-yard line, giving up touchdowns on only a quarter of opponent red-zone trips. L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert, meanwhile, should have a clean pocket all afternoon. The Giants lead the NFL in blitz attempts (50), but they rarely get home. And Herbert is excellent against the blitz, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt.
The QB experience gap, plus a red zone and third-down edge that tilt heavily to Los Angeles, make this a strong spot for the Chargers to cover.
