Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered in the eleventh hour. Don’t miss our last-minute prep for a loaded slate.
Here’s what we have: First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three potentially big surprises and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favorite bet for Week 5.
Will the Giants’ offense roll against the Saints? Can Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson get multiple sacks against the Bengals? Will Browns CB Denzel Ward snag an interception for the second straight game? Which two QBs have sneaky fantasy value this week? And could we see a bunch of points in the Raiders-Colts game? Let’s dive in.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Best bet
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 5 winners
Can Giants receivers Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton step up against the Saints?
The numbers suggest they can. New Orleans has one of the most pass-inducing defenses in the NFL, ranking second highest in pass rate over expectation allowed (plus-2%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. It’s easy to see why. While the Saints’ defense allows minus-0.10 EPA per designed carry (ninth best), it allows 0.25 EPA per dropback (fourth worst).
Twenty-one percent of passes against New Orleans are thrown to receivers in the slot, which ought to specifically help Robinson, who has lined up in the slot 69% of the time. It doesn’t end there, as the Saints have allowed 8.6 air yards per attempt this season (fourth most), which should play right into the hands of Slayton, a deep threat who is averaging 12.7 air yards per target.
Is Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson headed for another multi-sack day against the Bengals?
I’m a little surprised to see the Lions leading the entire league in defensive sack rate (10.6%), but Hutchinson is hot since returning from leg surgery. He has a sack in three straight games, including two last Sunday against the Browns. He also ranked in the top five in pass rush win rate at edge that week. Now he and the Lions get to face a Bengals team that is struggling mightily in pass protection.
As a team, the Bengals rank dead last in pass block win rate (44.6%). Against the Broncos last week, both tackles Amarius Mims and Orlando Brown Jr. ranked in the bottom five in pass block win rate at their position. Add in that backup QB Jake Browning has been sacked 8% of the time (higher-than-average rate), and that the Bengals should have to pass plenty as underdogs. So Hutchinson (and perhaps Al-Quadin Muhammad) should be in for a productive pass rushing day.
Can RB Woody Marks and the Texans have rushing success against the Ravens?
Marks, a fourth-round rookie, burst onto the scene against the Titans with 17 carries for 69 yards and a rushing touchdown; he also had 50 more yards and a touchdown in the receiving game. And there’s reason to believe that success could continue this week, thanks to a schematic change this season.
Under new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, the Texans have shifted from a heavy outside zone team to a heavy duo team, a downhill scheme that uses double-team blocks. Since the start of last season, the Ravens have allowed 3.4 yards per carry to outside zone but 5.0 to duo. The Lions, most notably, gashed Baltimore with duo plays (9.5 yards per carry!) in Week 3.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers (39.6% rostered)
Chuba Hubbard has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Dolphins with a calf injury, putting Dowdle in line for a heavy workload. He should find success against a Miami defensive front that ranks 28th in run stop win rate and has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Last season with the Cowboys, Dowdle averaged 12.3 fantasy points in games where he saw 15 or more touches.
Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants (36.6% rostered)
Dart hit the ground running against the Chargers in his first career start, not only leading the Giants to a win but also delivering 19.8 fantasy points. He generates production with both his arm and his legs, and as Seth mentioned above, he has capable targets in Robinson, Slayton and Theo Johnson. The rookie draws a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
1:21
Warner: You could feel the spark Jaxson Dart gave the Giants
Kurt Warner joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to recap Jaxson Dart’s performance vs. the Chargers.
Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans (35.5% rostered)
Ayomanor is the lone bright spot in a Titans offense that ranks 31st in total yards per game (210.5) and 32nd in points per game (12.8). He leads Tennessee in targets (25), receiving yards (151) and touchdowns (2), averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. That’s a solid floor, but his ceiling could be even higher against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the third-most receptions per game to wide receivers.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (35.1% rostered)
Strange has posted at least 10 fantasy points and seven targets in two straight games. He also leads the Jaguars in receptions (19) and receiving yards (182). He offers fantasy managers a high floor, with at least four catches and 45 yards in three games this season. Strange hasn’t found the end zone yet, but that could change against the Chiefs, who might prioritize stopping the Jaguars’ prolific running game in the red zone.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (15.2% rostered)
Young is off to a poor start for the second straight season, and a strong performance against Miami could be crucial to getting back on track. He is averaging just 12.9 fantasy points per game, but the Dolphins’ defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Carolina would be wise to lean on its run game behind an offensive line that ranks seventh in run block win rate, and then build off that with play-action passes against a subpar Miami pass rush.
Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …
Giants RB Cam Skattebo scores a touchdown against the Saints
With Skattebo taking over the lead role in New York, his volume and scoring opportunities are up in Brian Daboll’s offense. Skattebo scored a touchdown in two of the past three games and had seven goal-to-goal carries. Plus, with his pass-catching ability (12 receptions), Skattebo could find the end zone on an underneath throw from quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Saints has allowed nine touchdowns through the air this season, which is tied for third worst in the league.
Browns CB Denzel Ward gets another interception versus Vikings
Minnesota quarterback Carson Wentz threw two interceptions last week against the Steelers, and his 38.7 QBR was third worst out of all quarterbacks who started the past two weeks. Behind a Browns defensive front that has generated a pressure rate of 37.8%, the fifth highest in the league, Ward will have opportunities to make plays on the ball, especially when Wentz’s decision-making declines late in the down. Ward notched his first interception of the season versus the Lions in Week 4.
Lions WR Jameson Williams catches a pass over 25 yards against the Bengals
The Bengals’ defense has allowed six completions of 25 or more yards this season, and I like Williams to create an explosive play. He has seen seven targets of 25 or more air yards through four games, including four against the Browns (only one resulted in a reception). Look for the Lions to set up Jared Goff on a deep shot here, with Williams stretching the defense at the third level.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 5
OVER 47.5 points in Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts move the ball better than almost anyone, leading the league in success rate (52.8%) and averaging over 7.0 yards on first down. The Raiders’ defense has struggled to get stops, especially in the red zone, where opponents are scoring touchdowns nearly 89% of the time. Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones should also thrive against Las Vegas’ heavy Cover 3 looks.
While the Raiders’ offense is inconsistent, Indy’s defense isn’t exactly shutting anyone down either, ranking near the bottom in success rate and red zone efficiency. Both teams should finish drives, and if the Raiders are chasing points late, that only helps this matchup to hit the over.
