Everyone loves hitting the long shot. It feels validating when your particular belief or gut feeling, as counterintuitive as it may appear to the masses, turns out to be exactly what happens.
The payout ain’t too shabby, either.
How long is a long shot? ESPN BET futures on some of the individual players go as deep as 500-1, which would be a $500 return on a $1 bet.
More often than not, the long shot comes agonizingly close only to lose to a chalk bet. William Nylander for the Rocket Richard Trophy and Zach Werenski for the Norris last season are great examples. They finished second to Leon Draisaitl and Cale Makar, respectively, but were both 100-1 bets prior to the 2024-25 season.
Sometimes, though, the wildest of long shots will pan out. The Washington Capitals were 100-1 to win the Presidents’ Trophy before last season, but a confluence of great coaching, breakout players and vintage Alex Ovechkin had them atop the overall standings by the season’s end.
As we offer up some long shots to discuss, keep in mind that the point of this column isn’t to suggest you back these same long shots. The idea is to highlight some of the logical conclusions — some might call them mental gymnastics — that you can use to identify which long shots to lock in before the puck drops on 2025-26.
This isn’t a “bet this exact player” guide. It’s a mental exercise in spotting value.
All odds accurate as of publish time. For more, go to ESPN BET. 
Stanley Cup winner 2025-26
St. Louis Blues
Odds: 50-1
They were the ultimate long-shot story once before, going from bottom-feeder midseason to a magical Stanley Cup victory in 2019. They have the formula for playoff success: sharp coaching, reliable big-game goaltending, depth at forward and a stalwart blue line. It’s the kind of mix that could click just right in the postseason, mimicking the recent runs of the Florida Panthers.
They don’t have all the pieces, of course, but the puzzle could come together: Robert Thomas levels up to superstar, Jimmy Snuggerud becomes a rookie sniper, and the Blues acquire a game-breaking blueliner.
For a Stanley Cup long shot, you want a clear path that makes at least some sense for all the ingredients in the playoff recipe.
To make the playoffs
San Jose Sharks
Odds: 15-1
The rebuild is coming together, but the Sharks aren’t ready yet. Still, when considering playoff qualification props, they check a few boxes.
First, is there room? In the Western Conference, only the Vegas Golden Knights (-1200), Edmonton Oilers (-1200), Colorado Avalanche (-1000) and Dallas Stars (-900) carry extremely short odds, but everyone else is -350 or longer. That leaves some theoretical wiggle room.
The path to regular-season success requires consistency, which the Sharks don’t have yet.
With superstar-level prospect talent, there’s a world in which this team comes together. Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson and Yaroslav Askarov all have breakout potential. If reclamation projects like Jeff Skinner, John Klingberg and Philipp Kurashev also pan out … maybe. Just maybe.
Hart Trophy winner
Nick Suzuki
Odds: 500-1
To take home the Hart Trophy, a player needs to be the team leader, carry the club to success and have a case as the most dominant player at the position. This makes Suzuki an incredibly hard long shot. Even Connor Hellebuyck, who surprised everyone last season, was only 150-1.
Still, the next generation of NHL talent will break through at some stage. It’s hard to see any 500-1 props beating Connor McDavid (+200), Nathan MacKinnon (+475) or Nikita Kucherov (+650), but here’s a case for Suzuki.
If the Montreal Canadiens put together an improbable run to a division title and if Suzuki’s statistics soar from a dominant power play with Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to push him into the Art Ross race … well, actually, those are the only “if” statements we need to get him into consideration.
When taking a long shot at the Hart, aim not for the sky, aim for outer space.
Rocket Richard Trophy winner
Dylan Guenther
Odds: 400-1
In the era of Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews, the NHL goal-scoring lead rarely surprises. For long shots here, the keys are proven ability and room to grow.
Guenther fits that mold. Last season he played only 70 games, averaging 17 minutes of ice time per game. The Utah Mammoth are aiming to take a leap forward, with Guenther as an offensive catalyst. If his role expands to a full 82-game slate at 20 minutes per game, even with the same shooting rate, he’d reach 281 shots on goal. A bump in shooting percentage from 13.2% to 16% — plausible for a top winger — gets him to 45 goals. Add a little luck, and he’s a Rocket contender.
You could make similar arguments for other long-shot candidates, but the key is to find players with proven ability and a clear runway to showcase it.
Vezina Trophy winner
John Gibson
Odds: 250-1
When considering Vezina futures, the key is simple: volume. A goaltender needs to start 50-plus games to even be in the mix. That rules out many long shots unless you’re betting on an injury to a starter.
Gibson, however, has a path. The Detroit Red Wings project to play winning hockey, and the “Yzerplan” appears ready to start paying dividends. If Gibson stays healthy and gets a full crease share, the volume and wins boxes are checked.
That leaves just one more ingredient: form. Gibson still carries the pedigree from his Vezina-caliber seasons in 2015-16 and 2018-19 with the Anaheim Ducks. Mix in a little long-shot luck, and he becomes a very plausible surprise candidate — exactly the kind of upside to look for when scanning futures odds.
Norris Trophy winner
MacKenzie Weegar
Odds: 300-1
Let’s be real, any Norris pick that isn’t Cale Makar is basically a bet on Makar missing significant time this season.
Offense remains the main criterion for the trophy. Weegar is just one season removed from 20 goals and 52 points. If the Calgary Flames trade Rasmus Andersson, that could free up even more offensive opportunities from the blue line for him.
Beyond offense, Weegar excels at defensive elements that often get overlooked for the Norris, like making checks, blocking shots and tilting the ice.
Even with Makar performing at his usual level, a long-shot defender can wedge into the conversation by combining strong defensive play with gaudy offensive numbers. Weegar has shown he can do both.
Most rookie points
Arseny Gritsyuk
Odds: 40-1
With points, Gritsyuk is way down among the props, yet has a potential path to success. His skills aren’t in doubt and he created plenty of offense in the KHL. The Devils need to bolster scoring on the wings next to their two star centers. While it’s a long shot for him to both secure playing time and post enough points to lead rookies, the opportunity is there if he can seize it.
When evaluating rookie long shots, the talent is usually present, but the key is finding those with a path to the top of the depth chart.
Most shots on goal
Owen Tippett
Odds: 400-1
Consider this: among players with at least 75 games over the past two seasons, Tippett ranks eighth in shots per minute – just behind Alex Ovechkin and just ahead of Tage Thompson.
Shots on goal is all about mindset and a coach willing to let a player fire at will. The leaders are usually the same names each season, so for a new player to jump into the mix, something has to change. With Tippett, the change could come from new coach Rick Tocchet increasing his ice time from 16 minutes per game closer to 20. That makes him an intriguing long-shot bet, as the other pieces are already in place.
With more opportunities to fire, he could go from long shot to contender.
