NHL futures: Risers, fallers and why playoff odds haven’t caught up to the Sharks

The Winnipeg Jets, Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers strutted into the season with swagger — implied playoff chances of 75%, 83%, 94% and 92%, respectively.

But as the games piled up, the confidence meter has been recalibrated: Winnipeg is coasting at 57%, Toronto’s dreams have cooled to 41%, Florida is clawing back at 67% and Edmonton is still running at a healthy 85%.

Take a look at the current standings, and you won’t find any of these teams in a playoff position. Instead, the Chicago Blackhawks, Seattle Kraken, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are occupying those spots to start December. Their preseason implied playoff chances were 6%, 14%, 14% and 25%, respectively, yet after two months of action (roughly 29% of the season), the markets have only nudged them upward: the Flyers are at 49%, the Penguins at 26%, the Kraken at 24%, and the Blackhawks are still just at 13%.

Admittedly, the current standings aren’t a perfect gauge, as games played range from 24 to 27 and teams have faced very different opponents. But even a quick projection using point percentage, accounting for both strength of schedule played and remaining, can tack on projected points and normalize the standings.

This method doesn’t attempt to account for slumps, injuries, coaching changes or any of the other chaos generators that will shape the rest of the season. Instead, think of it as a way of projecting the remainder of the season if every team had just as much success as they’ve had so far.