But then: Kurtz went 15 consecutive games without a homer. The A’s settled comfortably into what looks like their third last-place finish in four years. As other playoff races intensified and the homers stopped flying, you probably stopped paying terribly close attention to him.
That would be a mistake. Kurtz, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 Draft, still put up an OPS over 1.000 in August. In the first week of September (all stats through Sunday), he’s done the same. He’s been the best hitter in the Majors since May 1, and June 1, and in the second half. While he’s probably going to come up just short of qualifying for the batting average title, all that means is that instead of saying “he’s having the best rookie hitting season ever,” we’ll have to remember to say “he’s having the best rookie hitting season ever among those with at least 400 plate appearances,” or however many he collects in the remainder of the month. (It’s a good list: the next three names all won MVPs during their careers.)
But to limit it to rookies isn’t even really the point here, because let’s do something entirely more fun: we’re going to talk about the greatest second halves, by OPS, since the second half became a thing with the 1933 advent of the All-Star Game. The top-20 list is just littered with absolute bold-face legends (there’s four Barry Bonds seasons, and two from Ted Williams, and two from Aaron Judge, and one from Henry Aaron), as well as some of the best stretches from some of the best sluggers of the turn of the 21st century.
If you wanted to go way back before the first All-Star Game, now you’re getting a few Babe Ruth second halves in there as well, but that “Oh, all we’re doing now is adding Babe Ruth” is the outcome that tells you a lot about what’s happening here. Kurtz is putting up the kind of second half that almost can’t be done by a player who doesn’t end up with a meaningfully great career.
Which now, we admit, sounds hyperbolic for a player who as recently as “early last season” was spending his days pounding the likes of Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, and Binghamton, but hear us out here.
Consider the two lists we’ve highlighted due to Kurtz’s lofty placement. Of the “best rookie hitting seasons” group, the one that he’s currently atop of, the next 11 names include six Hall of Famers (we’re including Judge and Mike Trout, because, come on), two MVPs (José Abreu, Fred Lynn), and a 12-time All-Star (Mark McGwire).
Of the “best second halves” group, in the All-Star era, the only hitters to best him as of Monday morning were the all-time home run king, four Hall of Famers (Ted Williams, Jim Thome, Johnny Mize, and yes, Judge counts here, too), and a trio of sluggers who hit nearly 1,400 homers between them, in Albert Belle, Sammy Sosa and Ryan Howard.
Nothing, obviously, is ever guaranteed. But it’s really, really hard to start off a career in quite this way and (barring serious injury or off-field issue) not have it end as one of the best hitting careers of a generation. Besides, despite how quickly this is happening for him, he’s not exactly an out-of-nowhere type either; when the A’s drafted him No. 4 overall, they were pretty open about the fact that he’d been No.1 on their board.
This is all happening because Kurtz ranks highly in all the metrics you’ve come to expect — he’s 98th percentile in bat speed, similar to Judge and Kyle Schwarber. He’s 92st percentile in hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile in barrel rate. (As Eno Sarris recently pointed out, the speed and shape of his swing shares more than a few characteristics with Judge and Ohtani, specifically, which is more than a little bit of high praise.) He’s average or above against every single pitch type.
It’s happening, too, because of swing decisions. “I’m a patient hitter,” Kurtz said after being drafted by the A’s last year. “I swing at the right pitches. That’s one thing I’m most proud of.” Only nine hitters with as many plate appearances as he does have a higher walk rate; he rates in the 94th percentile of Baseball Prospectus’s “SEAGER” swing decision metric,
It’s true he strikes out a lot, but that’s basically irrelevant when you’re doing more damage on contact than anyone else in the sport — and he is. As people are quick to forget: Ruth and Mickey Mantle each led his league in strikeouts five times. But for a more recent example, look at Kurtz’s rookie year against Judge’s first full season.
It’s doable — and Judge, while still a high-whiff hitter, never struck out again as often as he did in that first year.
It’s not, despite how hitter-friendly West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park has played, about his home park. While Kurtz does have the second-best OPS at home this year, he’s got the fourth-best mark on the road.
“He’s a special hitter, man,” A’s designated hitter Brent Rooker said of Kurtz this weekend. “He goes up there every night and does something to turn your head. … He can anchor a lineup for a very long time, and we’re looking forward to seeing him do that.”
There’s work to be done here. Any improvement in strikeout rate would be helpful. There will be, until he proves otherwise, some questions about his ability to hit same-sided pitching, as lefties have held him to a .186 average and .638 OPS. But that’s just nit-picking at this point, because the story here is “Top-5 Draft pick keeps on hitting and never seems to stop.” That, we think, is a recipe for a name you’ll be hearing about for a long time to come.
