Last season, we learned that a team can lose to Northern Illinois and still (easily) make the College Football Playoff. It was one of the greatest lessons we could have learned in the very first year of the 12-team Playoff because it immediately forced us to recalibrate the way we view teams and the natural ups and downs of the season in this new era.
Notre Dame’s path from NIU to the CFP title game should serve as a cautionary tale; it should remind us not to overreact to any one individual result this fall. The same lesson should be taken from Ohio State’s stunning loss to Michigan and the four wins (and the trophy) that followed.
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But … college football is not a sport known for patience, even when we think we know that a team is built for a CFP run but hasn’t quite pieced everything together early on. We’ll try to keep that in mind as we go through the 2025 season, but we can’t promise that we won’t overreact each and every week to what we see on the field.
Even with so many first-year starting quarterbacks at so many prominent programs, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for these teams to meld together and eventually grow into who they’ll be in December. It’s time for preseason predictions, whether we are ready or not. So, here goes!
Nicole Auerbach’s preseason picks
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This is the first year of straight seeding, which means that the top four seeds do not all have to be different conference champions. So, I’ve got Clemson, Texas, Penn State and Arizona State as my Power Four champions with Boise State as the highest-ranked champion from the Group of Six. I’ve got three Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Oregon and Illinois), three SEC teams (LSU, Georgia and Alabama) and Notre Dame as my at-large selections.
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The toughest pick? Arizona State. The Big 12 is nearly impossible to predict, and I expect that it’ll again come down to the final hours of the season to break tiebreakers and crown the champion. (But I do like Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson — that’s a dynamite combo for the Sun Devils.)
I feel most confident in the teams with returning talent — like Clemson, Penn State, Arizona State and Illinois, for example. They’ve developed a lot of their best players over multiple years in the same place, a luxury in this day and age. I really like the Tigers because I think Cade Klubnik is the best returning quarterback in the country, and the defensive front will be among the best in the nation. I expect Clemson to be the clear class of the ACC, and with the challenging nonconference schedule they face (LSU and South Carolina, both preseason top-15 teams) they’ll be well-positioned to land the No. 1 overall seed with one loss.
Meanwhile, Penn State won’t be able to prove to itself and the nation that it’s capable of beating top-five teams until it actually beats top-five teams. The Nittany Lions will have a prime opportunity at home vs. Oregon in September and then on the road against Ohio State in November. The biggest question they need to answer this season is at the wide receiver position — do they have a No. 1 receiver? Do they have anyone who can catch a pass in a big game? I say we get satisfactory “yeses” to both questions by midseason for a group fortified by the transfer portal.
It’s hard to tell exactly how the upper echelons of both the Big Ten and SEC will shake out this year. Texas was very good last year but couldn’t beat Georgia — I think the Longhorns get that monkey off their back this year with Arch Manning at QB and linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., defensive back Michael Taaffe and Co. on the defensive side of the ball.
NCAA Football: CFP National Playoff First Round-Clemson at Texas
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James Franklin will finally win The Big One — more than once. Preseason favorite Arch Manning will actually win the Heisman. Iowa will have a 3,000-yard passer. Plus, more bold-but-possible predictions.
I like LSU because I like Garrett Nussmeier, and I trust that the Tigers will hit on most of their transfer portal additions. I also believe Brian Kelly when he says that his defense is championship-caliber this year, which should make a significant difference. I’ve got Georgia and Alabama both back in the CFP this year, with the Tide sneaking in as the second-to-last at-large team in Kalen DeBoer’s second season. I predict a much more consistent offense in Tuscaloosa with Jalen Milroe gone and with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in the fold.
This will be the first time in awhile that Oregon starts a quarterback that isn’t ultra-ultra experienced, but I love that Dante Moore has been in this offense/QB room for a year already as a backup. I know that Dan Lanning will have dudes on both sides of the ball — and he told me he’s still smarting over how last season ended. I expect the Ducks to be back in the CFP but this time in the position of being more of a hunter. Illinois, my last at-large team, is my pick for this year’s Indiana. I’ll explain why in my National Coach of the Year blurb below.
Ultimately, I have the veteran-laden teams like Clemson and Penn State advancing the farthest in my bracket. I could be wrong; maybe the sport trends back toward those who flipped a lot of their roster and hit on transfers. But it doesn’t feel like it’s going to be one of those seasons. It feels like retention will be a theme of the 2025 season. Penn State’s stars running it back and Clemson leaning on its portal-lite approach will set the narrative. That’s why I have a few of the high-profile, first-year starting QBs getting upset in early rounds of my CFP bracket. We’ll see if I’m right! — Auerbach
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Joshua Perry’s preseason picks
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The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff format was both fun to watch and extremely insightful. It was our first window into what an expanded field looks like and how each of those teams got there. But, with seeding changes and the new emphasis on criteria for team resumes, the selection process is a moving target, and we’ll learn something completely new this season. Regardless, I’m giving predictions, so here it goes.
For conference champs, I went with Texas, Penn State, Clemson and Arizona State, with Tulane representing the Group of Six as their highest-ranked champ. My at-large selections are Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Oregon, Nebraska and Notre Dame. Now, how do we seed them?
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My top three selections are pretty straightforward. I believe that Penn State, Texas and Clemson are the best teams in their conferences and will be seen as the top three teams in the country by the end of the regular season. For Penn State and Texas, I don’t believe that this is a runaway by any means. Both of these teams have some flaws and their schedules have challenges. Clemson, on the other hand, has a better path, and it will allow the Tigers’ talent to shine. The fourth bye was a hard one to pick, but I went with Georgia. The Bulldogs’ path won’t be easy, but Georgia won’t be surprised by it, and the Bulldogs will ultimately play their way into a bye.
I slotted Ohio State at No. 5, Notre Dame at No. 6 and Alabama at No. 7. They’re all in similar spots to me — very talented rosters with premium head coaches, but all had some turnover at coordinator and will be breaking in new QBs. I think they’re all safely in. Oregon slots in next as one of the teams I’m most excited about. Dan Lanning has talked all offseason about the sting the Ducks felt after their exit in the CFP last season. I know they’re going to play with a lot of passion, but how will roster turnover affect them? I can’t wait to see.
LSU is at No. 9 for me, and it goes without saying that this is a big year for Brian Kelly. With Heisman hopeful Garrett Nussmeier and Blake Baker in year two as defensive coordinator, there wont be a lot of excuses if the Tigers come up short.
I mentioned Arizona State as a conference champ, so here they are… but they’re at No. 10. With straight seeding to get a more balanced bracket, this is where I think they would ultimately land. It’s going to be tough for anyone to run through the Big 12 unscathed because of its competitive balance, and a loss in that conference will be viewed differently than a loss in the Big Ten or SEC.
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My No. 11 team is a real dark horse, but what about Nebraska? The Cornhuskers have a favorable schedule along with the trio of Matt Rhule, Dana Holgerson and Dylan Raiola. I wouldn’t be shocked if we were calling them “this year’s Indiana” by December. Finally, Tulane becomes the Group of Six representative by winning the AAC and earning the respect of the committee with wins against Power Four opponents in the non-conference schedule. Quarterback play will be the biggest variable as to whether that happens.
In terms of a championship matchup, I am going with Clemson taking on Penn State. I almost feel crazy writing that because of the narratives around both coaches. Everyone thinks Dabo Swinney is stuck in 2016 and that James Franklin can’t win a game when Penn State’s opponent has a single digit next to their name. And while the narratives have some truth to them, I legitimately think that this year sets up well for both of these programs and coaches. The narratives will start to change, much like they did last season with Ryan Day. Franklin wins the biggest one, and Penn State becomes national champs, making three straight for the Big Ten. — Perry
The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner will be …
Auerbach: Texas QB Arch Manning. I know, I know. This doesn’t seem all that creative a pick, but I will remind readers that the preseason favorite rarely wins this award. Last year, Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter had odds of +4000 on DraftKings at one point before the season began. Even Joe Burrow, who ended up quarterbacking arguably the greatest offense in college football history at LSU in 2019, had preseason odds of +4000 to win the Heisman. So, this is *actually* a risky pick for me!
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My thinking is simple: If Texas is as good as we think it is going to be, and the Longhorns land a top-four CFP seed (and first-round bye), we’ll have seen a lot of Arch highlights all season. Voters love a great quarterback, and they love a quarterback on a winning team that they’ve seen a lot of all year. His name/narrative certainly don’t hurt his case, either.
Perry: LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier. Not only does he have an opportunity to be a stat machine, I think he’ll also get his fair share of statement moments throughout the season. He’s a confident player with a big arm who came back for this type of opportunity.
The 2025 National Coach of the Year will be …
Auerbach: Illinois HC Bret Bielema. All offseason, people have asked me, ‘Who could be this year’s Indiana?’ Well, we don’t have to drive very far to find my answer. It’s Illinois. This is a veteran-laden team with one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the Power Four. They’ve got a manageable schedule — with Duke as the toughest nonconference opponent and a Big Ten slate that includes Ohio State but not Penn State, Oregon or Michigan.
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So, yeah, we’ll be talking about the Illini as a CFP contender all season, and an 11-1 or 10-2 Illinois will absolutely be in the bracket. Illinois went 5-7 two years ago. Going from a five-win season to the CFP in short order is exactly the kind of program development that earns the head coach this award.
Perry: Penn State HC James Franklin. With Franklin’s success comes proper recognition. He is your Coach of the Year based on living up the expectations for Penn State football in 2025.
