Already playing without three starters due to injury, the Denver Nuggets lost their franchise cornerstone, Nikola Jokić, to a left knee hyperextension in the final seconds of the first half of Monday’s loss to the Miami Heat. On Tuesday, the Nuggets announced that the three-time Most Valuable Player will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Given how the injury occurred, with teammate Spencer Jones falling into his knee, things could have been much worse for the Nuggets’ star center. It goes without saying that Jokić being out will significantly affect the Nuggets’ starting lineup and rotation, not to mention fantasy basketball overall. He’s been a fixture atop the rankings in recent years, regardless of league format. Let’s look at the impact of Jokić’s injury, beginning with the Nuggets’ starting lineup.
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Who will replace Jokić in the starting lineup?
This is an easy question to answer. Jonas Valančiūnas, who was acquired from the Kings during the offseason to give Denver a reputable backup center, is the next man up. He started the third quarter of Monday’s defeat, and in 11 minutes accounted for six points (3-of-3 FGs), three rebounds and one blocked shot. However, all of those minutes were played during the third quarter. Zeke Nnaji replaced Valančiūnas in the lineup with just under a minute remaining in the third, and within the first two minutes of the fourth quarter, the Heat’s lead was up to 19, and they would go on to win by a 147-123 final score.
Valančiūnas can undoubtedly provide value as Denver’s starting center, but no one is going to expect his production to reach Jokić’s floor, much less the former MVP’s ceiling. However, it would make sense to add Valančiūnas, who is rostered in 14 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Who else is affected by Jokić’s absence?
The entire Nuggets rotation is affected by his absence, but hopefully, help will be on the way soon. Christian Braun (70 percent rostered, Yahoo!) and Aaron Gordon (48 percent) have been out since November 12 and 21, respectively, with the former sidelined by a sprained left ankle and the latter a strained right hamstring. While Braun was due for re-evaluation in six weeks, which would be this week, Gordon was given a re-evaluation timeline of four to six weeks. Given the amount of time missed, they’re likely to be under minutes restrictions once they’re cleared to return. But giving them back would undoubtedly help the Nuggets depth-wise.
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As for those who are currently healthy, Jamal Murray (100 percent) will have to shoulder an even heavier workload offensively. Nuggets’ lineups with Murray but without Jokić have struggled this season. According to Cleaning the Glass, while Denver has averaged 113.5 points per 100 possessions in this scenario, they’ve given up 121.5 points per 100 possessions. Given Jokić’s importance on the offensive end of the floor, the team’s efficiency will take a hit with him unavailable. Murray’s scoring may increase out of necessity, but can he function as the hub that the other Nuggets can play off of for an extended period? We’re about to find out.
Role players like Peyton Watson (17 percent), Tim Hardaway Jr. (17 percent), Bruce Brown (six percent) and Spencer Jones (six percent) will have to step up offensively. Since moving into the starting lineup after Braun’s ankle injury, Watson has averaged 13.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.5 three-pointers in 30.7 minutes, shooting 53.4 percent from the field and 74.5 percent from the foul line. He may be the most promising option with Jokić out, especially given his defensive value.
Hardaway has been mainly a points and three-pointers option, so losing a playmaker of the caliber of Jokić isn’t good. As for Brown, he’ll be interesting to watch. His impact as a supplementary playmaker was one factor in the Nuggets’ run to the 2023 NBA title and made him a viable standard-league option. However, he hasn’t reached those heights in his second stint with the team. Providing 10th-round per-game value in eight- and nine-cat formats over the past two weeks, Denver will need Brown to offer greater value as a playmaker with Jokić sidelined.
