No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama CFP prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (13-0) begin their pursuit of the national championship January 1 against the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) in the Rose Bowl.

Alabama enters the game the decided underdog but with some momentum following their win in the Opening Round at Oklahoma rallying from a 17-point deficit. They will need to be good from the opening kickoff in the quarterfinal as Indiana has yet to show a weakness on either side of the ball.

Lets dive into an analysis of each school on both sides of the ball.

Game Details and How to Watch Alabama vs. Indiana

Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026

Game Odds for Alabama vs. Indiana

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (+200), Indiana Hoosiers (-245)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 11-3
Offense Ranking: 26
Defense Ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: 7

Alabama finished the regular season 10-3 (7-1 SEC West), but the underlying profile was shakier than the record suggests, with 8.5 second-order wins (-1.5) and an overall SP+ rank of 13th driven by a defense that consistently carried the load (Def. SP+ 8th) while the offense lagged behind (Off. SP+ 26th). The Crimson Tide opened unevenly, including a road loss at Florida State and narrow wins against Georgia and Missouri, before settling into a midseason groove built on defensive efficiency (36.5% defensive success rate, 15th; 1.47 points per drive allowed, 15th). Alabama’s offense was functional but unspectacular, ranking just 44th in success rate and 69th in yards per play, relying heavily on finishing drives (73.2% red-zone TD rate, 11th) rather than game-changing explosiveness (7.1% explosive-play rate, 41st). Defensively, the Tide limited big plays (9.2% explosive-pass rate allowed, 1st) and held opponents to 4.82 yards per play (20th), but inconsistency against elite offenses showed up late in losses to Oklahoma and Georgia. Ultimately, Alabama remained a strong Top 15 team by advanced metrics, but the combination of offensive inefficiency and special-teams drag (ST SP+ 113th) make their margin for error smaller than the upper echelon contenders.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense

Alabama’s offense was solid but uneven in 2025, finishing 26th in Offensive SP+ with a 44.7% overall success rate (44th) and 0.14 EPA per play (30th). The passing game remained the backbone, posting a 47.2% passing success rate (20th) and 9.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (36th), though explosive pass production lagged with just 17.3% of completions gaining 20+ yards (48th). On the ground, the Crimson Tide struggled to consistently generate push, ranking 84th in rushing success rate and 126th in yards per rush, frequently putting the offense behind schedule. Alabama compensated with strong situational execution, converting touchdowns on 73.2% of red-zone trips (11th) and 88.9% of goal-to-go opportunities (16th) to maintain scoring efficiency despite the inconsistency.

Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson

Ty Simpson delivered a productive 2025 season, throwing for 3,494 yards on 7.6 YPA with 28 touchdowns against five interceptions while posting an 84.2 overall grade and an 81.6 passing grade. He consistently pushed the ball downfield (8.7 aDOT) and handled volume well across 522 dropbacks, though a 9.3% drop rate and 30 drops from receivers muted his efficiency at times. Simpson showed toughness and pocket composure under pressure, absorbing 30 sacks with an elevated 19.2% pressure-to-sack rate while still creating 184 first downs and a 2.94 TTT. His athleticism added value (71.5 run grade), but ball security in the run game (53.3 run fum grade) remains an area to clean up as he continues to refine his profile.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense

Alabama’s defense was the catalyst of the team’s success, finishing 8th in SP+ and consistently suppressing both efficiency and explosives. The Tide allowed just 4.82 yards per play (20th) and 1.47 points per drive (15th), while ranking 15th in defensive success rate at 36.5%. The pass defense was particularly stout, allowing only 9.2% of completions to go for 20+ yards (1st) and holding opponents to a 37.2% passing success rate (32nd) with a middling interception rate of 3.0% (44th). While the pass rush was more steady than dominant, Alabama’s ability to limit chunk plays and win on passing downs kept the unit among the SEC’s most reliable defenses.

Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: S Bray Hubbard

S Bray Hubbard put together a highly productive 2025 campaign, earning an 86.2 overall PFF grade while standing out as a true strength in coverage (91.0) and run defense (82.9). He was consistently active around the ball, finishing with 55 tackles, 28 stops, and a low missed-tackle rate of 8.9%, underscoring his reliability as a finisher in space. In coverage, Hubbard allowed 27 receptions on 40 targets (67.5%) for 230 yards, adding three interceptions and four pass breakups to highlight his playmaking ability on the back end. While his pass-rush usage was limited, his strong coverage instincts, physical tackling, and ball skills made him a stabilizing presence in the secondary.

Indiana Hoosiers

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 13-0
Offense Ranking: 4
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 20

Indiana put together a spotless 13–0 (9–0) regular season, pairing an elite résumé with an SP+ ranking of 2nd and a Second-Order Win total of 11.8 that underscored how dominant the Hoosiers were week to week. Curt Cignetti’s group leaned on one of the nation’s most efficient offenses, finishing 4th in Offensive SP+, Top 3 in success rate (2nd), EPA/play (2nd), and overall third-down success (1st), while averaging 7.09 yards per play (7th). The defense was just as stifling, ranking 2nd in Defensive SP+, 3rd in points per drive allowed, and 2nd in EPA/play allowed, with an elite disruption profile highlighted by the nation’s top overall havoc rate (1st). Indiana’s balance showed up on the scoreboard, as they posted an actual scoring margin of +31.1 points per game (2nd) and consistently outperformed projections against a Top 30 schedule strength (SOS 20th to date). With a complete profile on both sides of the ball and a signature win over Ohio State to close the season, Indiana enters the postseason looking every bit like a legitimate national title contender.

The Indiana Hoosiers Offense

Indiana’s offense was one of the most complete units in the country, finishing 2nd in Success Rate (53.7%) and 3rd in down-set conversion rate (82.1%), consistently staying on schedule and avoiding negative plays (5th in ≤0-yard plays at 22.4%). The Hoosiers paired that efficiency with real scoring punch, ranking 3rd in points per drive (3.57) and 3rd in points per scoring opportunity (5.38) while converting red-zone trips at a strong 72.3% TD rate (15th). Balance defined the attack, as Indiana posted 4th-ranked rushing success (51.8%) alongside a lethal passing game that finished 2nd in passing success (57.4%) and 1st in EPA per dropback (0.46). Elite third-down execution sealed drives, with Indiana leading the nation in overall 3rd-down success (55.8%, 1st) and thriving in long-yardage situations (2nd on 3rd-and-7+), making this offense relentlessly difficult to get off the field.

Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza

The Heisman Trophy winner, Mendoza delivered a highly efficient 2025 season, completing 70.8% of his throws for 2,980 yards at an explosive 9.3 yards per attempt with 33 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He posted an elite 90.5 overall PFF grade with an 88.2 passing grade, pairing strong downfield production (9.5 aDOT) with consistent accuracy (79.2% adjusted completion rate). Mendoza’s decision-making stood out, as his turnover-worthy play rate remained low (2.3%) despite a vertical passing profile. While he faced moderate pressure (16.7% P2S) and took 18 sacks, he consistently punished defenses with big-time throws and efficient scoring drives.

The Indiana Hoosiers Defense

Indiana’s defense was a true national-title caliber unit, ranking 2nd in SP+ and finishing 2nd in EPA per play allowed (-0.19) while giving up just 4.57 yards per play (12th). The Hoosiers excelled at creating negative outcomes, sitting 3rd in overall havoc rate and 3rd in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards allowed. They were especially dominant against the pass, ranking 1st in preventing 20+ yard completions and 7th in sacks per dropback, consistently disrupting quarterbacks without selling out. Combined with elite third-down efficiency (2nd) and red-zone defense (1st in red-zone TD rate allowed), Indiana’s defense consistently slammed the door when opponents threatened.

Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Stephen Daley

Stephen Daley delivered a steady, assignment-sound season for Indiana while logging 528 total snaps, including heavy usage against the run (326 RDEF snaps) and as a situational rusher. He posted a solid 78.3 overall PFF grade, highlighted by strong run defense (87.0 RDEF) and respectable pass-rush production (34 pressures, four sacks, three hits, and one bat). Daley was a reliable finisher at the point of attack, recording 24 total stops with six misses (15.8% miss rate). While his coverage grade (60.8) and pass-rush grade (65.8) reflect a more complementary role, his consistency and physicality made him a dependable piece of Indiana’s front.

Indiana and Alabama: Team Stats and Betting Trends

Alabama is 9-4-1 ATS this season
Indiana is 8-5 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 6 of Alabama’s 14 games this season (6-8)
The OVER has cashed in 7 of Indiana’s 13 games (7-6)

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Charlie Becker OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards

When QB Fernando Mendoza needs to convert an important 3rd down or stretch the field with a deep shot on the boundary, he goes to the uber-reliable 6’4/209 WR Charlie Becker. Outside of his 1 catch performance against B10 basement dweller Purdue in the final week of the regular season, Becker has been a certifiable problem for opposing defenses. Excluding Purdue, he has cleared his very reasonable 44.5 receiving yards mark in his last four games against actual opponents with a pulse, excelling for 100+ yards against Penn State (legendary sideline catch), Wisconsin and Ohio State where he caught 6-of-7 passes and 126 yards. With Indiana HC Curt Cignetti having a bone to pick with Alabama after he was capped by the University at being a position coach, I think Cignetti keeps his foot on the gas which means I like Charlie Becker to clear his 44.5 receiving yards line.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff between Indiana and Alabama

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on the Indiana Hoosiers -6.5.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 48.5.

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