No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois prediction: Odds, expert picks, team/player overviews, trends, and stats

Its an Orange Out Saturday in Champaign when the No. 17 Fighting Illini of Illinois (5-1) take the field at Memorial Stadium against the top team in the nation, the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0).

Is this a trap game for the Buckeyes? Could well be, but it will mean the Ohio State defense does not make the trip. Through five games, Ryan Day’s defense has allowed a grand total of 25 points. They have yet to allow a red zone touchdown. Heck, only Ohio University has scored a touchdown against them. It will also mean Julain Sayin struggles for the first time this season. The latter is far more possible than the former, but because the former is so stout, it provides the latter with a little grace. In other words, Illinois may win, but it is unlikely to be because Ohio State fails to show up on either side of the ball.

The Illini were waxed three weeks ago by Indiana, 63-10 but have rebounded since with wins over USC (34-32) and Purdue (43-27). Luke Altmeyer has been special this season pushing the ball downfield and completing 74% of his passes and aside from that game against the Hoosiers, Bret Bielema’s team shows up on gameday and competes. Washington kept it a one score game going into the fourth quarter against Ohio State and if Illinois can do the same, maybe the home crowd can help force a late mistake by the Buckeyes and…

Enough supposition. Lets dive into each school and their numbers on both sides of the ball. Perhaps we will find a sweat or two along the way.

Game Details and How to watch No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois

Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025

Game Odds for No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Illinois Fighting Illini (+470), Ohio State Buckeyes (-650)
Spread: Ohio State -14.5 (-105)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2025 Record: 5-0
Offense Ranking: 9
Defense Ranking: 1
Strength of Schedule: 34

The 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes boast the nation’s most complete statistical profile, ranking No. 2 overall in SP+ with the No. 9 offense and No. 1 defense. Offensively, the Buckeyes lead the country in passing success rate (63.2%) and adjusted completion rate (86.1%), with Top 10 marks in yards per play (7.45), EPA/play (0.32), and yards per dropback (9.8), despite operating at the 135th slowest pace in the nation (31.6 seconds per play). Defensively, they are stifling opponents holding them to just 3.84 yards per play (No. 3), 0.48 points per drive (No. 1), and a 20.0% third-down success rate (No. 2), while allowing a national-best 0.0% touchdown rate on goal-to-go and red-zone drives. Ohio State’s projected scoring margin of +26.0 (4th nationally) and 73.4% CFP probability reflect their dominant trajectory under Ryan Day, setting up a potential showdown with Michigan to decide the East.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense

The 2025 Ohio State offense is ruthlessly efficient, ranking No. 1 in the country in passing success rate (63.2%) and adjusted completion rate (86.1%) while also placing Top 10 in yards per play (7.45), EPA/play (0.32), and yards per dropback (9.8). Quarterback play has been surgical, with a 79.4% raw completion rate and just 22.9% of dropbacks resulting in zero or negative yardage, while the offensive line has surrendered pressure on only 1.0% of dropbacks (4th nationally). Despite operating at the slowest pace among Power Four programs (31.6 seconds/play, 135th), the Buckeyes score 3.53 points per drive (12th) and convert 54.2% of third downs (12th). Though not reliant on explosive plays (64th in 20+ yard play rate), they consistently dominate with advanced efficiency, field position, and elite execution in standard and passing downs.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin

The freshman quarterback has stepped in as the starter for Ohio State and delivered impressive early results, completing 80.2% of his passes for 1,313 yards and a 13-to-3 TD-INT ratio through five starts. He’s been remarkably efficient, posting 11.3 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and a stellar 85.8 Total QBR, while averaging 13.0 yards per completion. Sayin has also protected the ball well and handled pressure adeptly, taking sacks on just 1.6% of dropbacks and only 7.7% of pressures. His rushing contributions have been minimal—just 10 carries for 19 yards, with a low 10% success rate and minimal yards after contact—indicating his value lies almost exclusively in his precision passing and pocket poise.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense

Ohio State’s 2025 defense is arguably the most dominant in the country, ranking No. 1 in Defensive SP+, EPA/play allowed (-0.26), and points per drive allowed (0.48). The Buckeyes suffocate opposing offenses, ranking 3rd in yards per play allowed (3.84) and 10th in success rate allowed (33.1%), while also producing elite results on third downs (20.0% conversion rate, 2nd nationally) and in the red zone (0.0% TD rate allowed in both red zone and goal-to-go situations). Their pass rush ranks 8th in sack rate (9.3%) and they generate pressure without committing additional resources, blitzing just 17.1% of the time (123rd) and holding QBs to just 4.0 yards per dropback (5th). Despite modest havoc rates from the secondary (120th in DB havoc), the defense excels across all levels with an elite front, efficient tackling (89.1% success rate), and a scheme that has yielded just one total touchdown across their first five games.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: S Caleb Downs

The sophomore safety is the heart and soul of Ohio State’s secondary, registering 19 tackles (11 solo) over five games with an 82.6% tackle rate and a 68.4% share of his tackles coming against the run. He’s contributed 3 havoc plays, including 2 tackles for loss and an interception, while adding 3 run stops in support. In coverage, Downs has been targeted just 5 times on 107 coverage snaps and allowed only 2 completions for a total of 2 yards, resulting in a minuscule 0.02 yards per coverage snap and an elite defensive QBR of just 3.4. His lockdown coverage and reliability against the run have made Downs one of the most complete and impactful defenders in the nation.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Head Coach: Bret Bielema
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 18
Defense Ranking: 51
Strength of Schedule: 29

Illinois has emerged as a well-rounded team under Bret Bielema, ranking 29th overall SP+ with a Top 20 offense (18th) and one of the nation’s best special teams units (6th). The Illini offense thrives through elite efficiency and passing explosiveness, ranking 6th in adjusted net yards per attempt (13.0) and 12th in EPA/dropback (0.41)—fueled by a 73.9% completion rate (4th nationally) and an adjusted completion rate of 78.4% (9th). Defensively, Illinois has been inconsistent; failing to generate havoc at the linebacker level while their secondary struggles mightily in coverage—ranking 122nd in passing success rate allowed and 129th in standard downs run rate allowed. Despite a brutal 63-10 loss at Indiana, Illinois rebounded with a statement win over USC and projects to finish with 9+ wins

The Illinois Fighting Illini Offense

Illinois’ offense ranks 18th nationally in SP+ and operates with exceptional balance, ranking 24th in points per drive (3.16), 22nd in EPA/play (0.24), and 31st in yards per play (6.54). The passing game is the clear engine of the unit, ranking 6th in adjusted net yards per attempt (13.0), 4th in completion rate (73.9%), and 12th in EPA/dropback (0.41), while also boasting a Top 10 adjusted completion percentage (78.4%). Though the run game ranks just 84th in yards per carry (4.7), the Illini convert 83.3% of their fourth downs (6th nationally) and possess one of the lowest turnover totals in the country (3 total). Offensive line protection has been elite, ranking 11th in pressure rate allowed (1.3%) and 30th in total blown block percentage (15.6%), giving the Illini a high-efficiency identity despite a slow tempo (122nd in seconds per play).

Illinois Player to Watch on Offense: QB Luke Altmyer

The upperclassman has been a reliable and explosive passer through six starts, completing 73.6% of his throws for 1,573 yards and a pristine 12:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He ranks near the top nationally in key metrics like yards per completion (14.4), adjusted net yards per attempt (12.0), and Total QBR (86.8), showcasing his ability to generate big plays while avoiding mistakes. Despite operating behind a leaky offensive line that has allowed an 11.4% sack rate and a 38.0% pressure-to-sack conversion, Altmyer has maintained composure and produced a strong 8.4 yards per dropback. On the ground, he’s added 109 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns with a 50% rushing success rate, though over half of his carries have been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (51.3%).

The Illinois Fighting Illini Defense

Illinois’ defense is a tale of extremes, ranking 51st in SP+ but struggling in several foundational metrics, including 122nd in passing success rate allowed (47.0%) and 121st in overall success rate (46.0%). The Illini concede 5.82 yards per play (98th) and rank 90th in points allowed per drive (2.14), while also allowing a red zone touchdown rate of 72.2% (110th). Despite these issues, they generate some disruptive plays—ranking 33rd in LB havoc rate (5.5%) and 46th in blitz rate (46.1%)—but suffer from poor secondary production, ranking 114th in adjusted completion rate allowed (72.7%) and 111th in Total QBR (68.7). Their struggles against both the pass and the run have made them overly reliant on high-scoring offensive performances to secure wins.

Illinois Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Gabe Jacas

Jacas has been a disruptive edge presence for Illinois, notching 4.5 sacks and 13 total pressures on 108 pass-rush attempts, translating to a solid 12.0% pressure rate. He has generated four sacks independently and forced two fumbles, while also logging 16 first pressures and a commendable 2.66-second average to pressure. As a run defender, Jacas has recorded 22 total tackles (13 solo), including 4.0 tackles for loss and a team-leading 6 havoc plays, reflecting his multi-faceted impact. In coverage, Jacas allowed just one reception for four yards on one target, showcasing limited exposure but sound execution in space.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois team stats, betting trends

Ohio State has won 6 straight road games
Illinois has covered the Spread in its last 5 home games
Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS this season
Illinois is 5-1 ATS this season
Game Totals in Illinois games are 4-2 to the OVER (4-1 in the Last 5)
Game Totals in Ohio State games are 2-3 to the OVER

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Ca’Lil Valentine UNDER 44.5 rushing yards

Illinois has trotted out a 3-man running back rotation with Kaden Feagin leading the way as a 2-down pounder and Ca’Lil Valentine/Aiden Laughrie serving as the change-of-pace backs. However, last game against Purdue Valentine popped off for 22 carries and 95 rushing yards, a stark increase in usage over his previous 7-carry average against the other three P4 teams on Illinois’ schedule. With Illinois now taking on DC Matt Patricia’s shutdown defense that has allowed one TD to this point, I think OSU gets up early and smothers an overmatched Illini offense similar to the way Indiana did when Valentine ran 6 times for 11 yards. I’m taking the Under on Ca’Lil Valentine’s 44.5 rushing yards prop.

***

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 17 Illinois:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Illinois Fighting Illini at +14.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 50.5.

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