No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana – Big Ten Title Game -prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news

The Big Ten Championship game Saturday Night features the two best teams in the nation as No. 1 Ohio State (11-0) takes the field in Indianapolis against No. 2 Indiana (11-0).

This is the first time two undefeated teams will meet in the Big Ten title game, with the winner securing the conference crown and the top seed in the College Football Playoff. This is Indiana’s first ever appearance in the Big Ten Championship game. The Hoosiers are looking to win the program’s first outright league title since 1945. Although they are the defending national champions, the Buckeyes are making their first appearance in the Big Ten Title Game since 2020.

The game pits the nation’s top-ranked scoring defense (Ohio State, allowing 7.8 points per game) against the second-highest scoring offense (Indiana, averaging 44.3 points per game). The quarterbacks in this game – Julian Sayin of Ohio State and Fernando Mendoza of Indiana – are the favorites in the race for the Heisman Trophy.

Indiana trails the all-time series against Ohio State 81-12-5. The Hoosiers have lost 30 in a row to Ohio State and have not defeated the Buckeyes since 1988.

Lets dive deeper into the matchup and look at each school on both sides of the ball.

Game Details and How to watch Ohio State at Indiana

Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025

Game Odds for Ohio State at Indiana

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-205), Indiana Hoosiers (+170)
Spread: Ohio State -4.5 (-112)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Ohio State

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2025 Record: 12-0 (9-0)
Offense Ranking: 5
Defense Ranking: 1
Strength of Schedule: 23

Ohio State completed an unbeaten 12-0 regular season, finishing No. 1 in SP+ behind the nation’s most complete overall profile on both sides of the ball, resulting in a +29.3 scoring margin. Ryan Day’s Buckeyes dominated opponents with the No. 5 offense and No. 1 defense, ranking Top 5 nationally in both EPA/play on offense (0.29) and defense (-0.21). The defense allowed just 3.77 yards per play and 0.79 points per drive, leading the country in tackle success rate (91.3%) and passing yards per dropback allowed (3.9). Offensively, Ohio State posted an elite 54.7% success rate, completed 78.4% of passes, and scored touchdowns on 69% of red-zone trips despite playing at one of the slowest tempos in the nation. Their consistent dominance across all five factors—efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers—cemented them as the sport’s most complete team entering the postseason.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense

Ohio State’s offense ranks 5th nationally in SP+, powered by an uber-efficient passing attack that leads the country in completion rate (78.4%), success rate (54.7%), and adjusted completion percentage (82.2%). The Buckeyes average an elite 6.85 yards per play (14th) and 3.58 points per drive (4th), balancing precision passing with a steady ground game that generates 5.0 yards per carry and ranks 15th in rushing success rate. Their offensive line has been nearly flawless, allowing pressure on just 1.5% of dropbacks (3rd) while sustaining a Top 10 stuff rate and No. 7 total blown block rate. Despite playing at a deliberate pace (31.7 seconds per play, 135th nationally), Ryan Day’s offense overwhelms opponents through relentless efficiency, converting 56.2% on third downs and scoring touchdowns on 69% of red-zone trips.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin

Julian Sayin delivered a remarkably efficient first season as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, completing 78.9% of his passes for 3,065 yards and a 30–5 TD-INT ratio. He paired surgical precision with explosive efficiency, averaging 8.9 yards per dropback, 11.9 yards per completion, and posting a stellar 91.4 Total QBR—ranking among the nation’s elite. Sayin operated cleanly behind a dominant line, taking sacks on just 1.8% of dropbacks while generating a 59.2% success rate and 10.5 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Though not a major rushing threat (66 yards on 25 carries), his command, anticipation, and accuracy have made him the steady hand driving college football’s top-ranked offense and a Heisman contender.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense

Ohio State’s defense has been the most dominant unit in the country, ranking No. 1 nationally in SP+ and allowing just 3.77 yards per play and 0.79 points per drive. The Buckeyes suffocate opponents with elite efficiency, holding teams to a 34.3% success rate and just 3.6% of plays gaining 20+ yards, both Top 2 nationally. Their pass defense is the stingiest in college football, surrendering only 3.9 yards per dropback, a 36.2% passing success rate, and the No. 1 red-zone touchdown rate (35%), while producing an 8.7% sack rate and ranking top-10 in overall havoc. Anchored by a front that dominates the line of scrimmage and a secondary that yields only 4.5 yards per dropback vs. zone, DC Matt Patricia’s group has been a nearly impenetrable force from start to finish.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Arvell Reese

Arvell Reese emerged as one of the Big Ten’s most disruptive defenders, recording 58 tackles, 11 havoc plays, and 6.5 sacks across 11 games. The rangy outside linebacker combined edge-rushing explosion with sturdy run defense, posting a 95.1% tackle rate and ranking among Ohio State’s most efficient pass rushers with a 22.8% pressure rate—tops on the team. His 8.5 tackles for loss and seven run stops underscore his versatility as both a perimeter run defender and heat-seeking blitzer. Rarely targeted in coverage (allowed 4-of-6 targets, 31 yards), Reese’s blend of burst, motor, and closing speed make him a centerpiece of the Buckeyes’ nation-best defense.

Indiana Hoosiers

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 12-0 (9-0)
Offense Ranking: 3
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 28

Curt Cignetti’s second season in Bloomington was a masterpiece, as Indiana ripped through the schedule 12-0 with an SP+ ranking of No. 2 nationally behind only their B10 Championship opponent, Ohio State. The Hoosiers paired an explosive, balanced offense (Off. SP+ No. 3) with a ferocious, pressure-oriented defense (Def. SP+ No. 2) that led the nation in Havoc Rate (25%) and red-zone efficiency allowed (27.8% TD rate). Offensively, Indiana ranked first in the FBS in Success Rate (54.8%), averaging 7.17 yards per play and finishing drives with 5.47 points per scoring opportunity, thanks to a mauling run game and elite passing efficiency (12.8 ANY/A). The defense, meanwhile, allowed just 0.88 points per drive, holding opponents under 4.5 yards per play while creating a staggering +17 turnover margin, tops in the country. By season’s end, Indiana’s combination of discipline (No. 3 in fewest penalties), explosiveness, and balance had transformed the Hoosiers from perennial underdog to legitimate College Football Playoff contender heading into their Big Ten title showdown with Ohio State.

The Indiana Hoosiers Offense

Indiana’s offense was among the most efficient and explosive units in the nation, ranking 3rd in Offensive SP+ and leading the FBS in Success Rate (54.8%). The Hoosiers combined a bruising ground game (6.0 yards per carry, 53.3% rushing success rate) with elite passing precision, as their quarterbacks posted a 71.9% completion rate, 8.9 yards per dropback, and the nation’s top EPA per dropback (0.48). Their offensive line was both disciplined and fortified, allowing pressure on just 1.9% of dropbacks and ranking Top 20 nationally in total blown block rate (18.8%). With balanced play-calling, finishing (5.47 points per scoring opportunity), and the ability to generate chunk plays (9.0% of snaps gaining 20+ yards), Indiana’s offense was a relentless, multi-dimensional force that kept defenses perpetually off-balance.

Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza has been a revelation and the catalyst behind Indiana’s undefeated regular season, completing 72.0% of his passes for 2,758 yards and 32 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He ranked among the nation’s most efficient passers with an 11.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and an 88.3 Total QBR, blending accuracy with explosive production at 13.1 yards per completion. Mendoza’s mobility was a major asset as well, adding 336 rushing yards and six touchdowns, converting a remarkable 69.4% rushing success rate while picking up first downs on over half his runs. His ability to extend plays, protect the football, and deliver both through the air and on the ground made him one of the most complete and Heisman-worthy quarterbacks in college football.

The Indiana Hoosiers Defense

Indiana’s defense was a suffocating, havoc-driven unit that ranked No. 2 nationally in Defensive SP+ and led the FBS in Havoc Rate (25.0%). The Hoosiers overwhelmed opponents up front with a Top 3 defensive line havoc rate (10.7%), while linebackers and defensive backs contributed heavily to creating turnovers and negative plays across all levels. They excelled situationally, holding offenses to just 0.88 points per drive, a 27.8% red-zone touchdown rate, and a 31.8% rushing success rate, all among the best in the country. With disciplined tackling (88.2% success rate) and elite efficiency against both man and zone concepts, this defense consistently flipped field position and set up the offense for short fields on a consistent basis.

Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Stephen Daley

Stephen Daley was the tone-setter for Indiana’s defensive front, combining production and disruption at an elite level throughout the season. The junior defensive end racked up 44 tackles, 18 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and 21 total havoc plays, showing a rare blend of burst and finishing ability off the edge. Daley created 25 pressures on 244 rushes (10.2%) while maintaining his gap responsibilities against the run, converting 17 run stops and posting a 91.7% tackle rate. His blend of power, consistency, and backfield penetration made him a foundational piece in one of the nation’s most efficient and aggressive defenses.

Indiana and Ohio State: Team Stats and Betting Trends

Indiana is 7-5 ATS this season
Ohio State is 10-1-1 ATS this season
Ohio State dispatched every opponent on their schedule by at least 18 points other than Texas (14-7 win in their season opener)
The OVER has cashed 4 times in Ohio State’s 12 games this season (4-8)
The OVER has cashed 7 times in Indiana’s 12 games this season (7-5)

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Bo Jackson OVER 7.5 Receiving Yards

Indiana’s defense is a wrecking ball of a unit that terrorizes their opposition to the tune of a 25% havoc rate as noted above. While Ohio State’s offensive line is a superb unit in their own right, I expect HC Ryan Day and OSU to utilize misdirection and screens in order to keep Indiana’s DL from pinning their ears back and going full force after QB Julian Sayin. RB Bo Jackson has cleared his 7.5 Rec Yards line in six of his eight starts this season, with the only 2 Unders coming against UCLA and Penn State, who OSU easily dispatched by a combined score of 86-24, putting Jackson on ice early on in both cake-walk victories. With OSU pulling out all the stops against undefeated Indiana, I bet Bo gets 3 targets and blasts his 7.5 Receiving Yards line, similar to how TreVeyon broke a 75-yard beautifully constructed screen pass to the house against ND last year.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Ohio State and Indiana

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Ohio State on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play against the spread on Ohio State -4.5.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 47.5.

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