No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The 12^th-ranked Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (5-2) continue their push for the college football playoff when they take the field in Chestnut Hill Saturday against the struggling Eagles of Boston College (1-7). Of late, the “Holy War” has looked more like the Crusades than a competitive battle with Notre Dame winning the last nine in this series between the Catholic schools.

Coming off a bye week, the Irish are riding a five-game winning streak, bolstered by a potent offense led by running back Jeremiyah Love and a defense that excels at forcing turnovers. Boston College faces a monumental challenge if they are even hoping to keep this respectable.

Lets dive into the schools and look at each on both sides of the ball, a handful of players to watch, and also some key numbers.

Game Details and How to Watch No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College

Date: Saturday, November 1st, 2025

Game Odds for No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Boston College (+1600), Notre Dame(-4000)
Spread: Notre Dame -28.5 (-110)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 5-2
Offense Ranking: 4
Defense Ranking: 22
Strength of Schedule: 39

Notre Dame has rebounded under HC Marcus Freeman. The Fighting Irish average 7.05 yards per play (11th nationally) and 0.24 EPA/play (14th), thriving on explosive gains with 10.5% of plays gaining 20+ yards (4th) and a 49% passing success rate (16th). Defensively, Notre Dame has shown flashes of strength ranking 22nd in Defensive SP+ and allowing a reasonable 5.37 yards per play (60th) but still gives up way too many chunk plays through the air (7.1% explosive play rate allowed, 103rd). With a Top 10 offense and a favorable closing schedule, Notre Dame remains firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt (43% odds) and projects to finish with 10 wins.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense

Notre Dame’s offense has been one of the nation’s most dynamic units in 2025, ranking 4th in Offensive SP+ and averaging 7.05 yards per play, good for 11th nationally. The Irish pair efficiency with explosiveness, boasting a 47.9% success rate (22nd) and generating 10.5% of plays for 20+ yards, the fourth-highest rate in the country. Quarterback play has been elite, producing 8.8 yards per dropback (7th) and 12.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (5th), supported by a steady run game averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Balanced, explosive, and efficient on both standard and passing downs, OC Mike Denbrock’s attack has become one of the most complete offensive operations in college football.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: RB Jeremiyah Love

Jeremiyah Love has emerged as Notre Dame’s most productive offensive weapon, rushing 124 times for 758 yards (6.11 YPC) and nine touchdowns, while adding 19 catches for 197 yards and three scores as a receiver. His combination of vision and burst drives a 52.4% rushing success rate with a stunning 19.4% of carries gaining 10+ yards, ranking among the nation’s most explosive running backs. Love’s balance through contact, averaging 2.65 yards before and 3.46 yards after contact per rush, demonstrates his ability to create beyond what is blocked. A true dual-threat, he’s caught nearly 80% of his targets (79.2%), producing consistent results both between the tackles and in the passing game.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense

Notre Dame’s beleaguered defense ranks 22nd nationally in SP+ allowing 5.37 yards per play (60th) and a 39.5% success rate (48th). The Irish thrive on disruption through coverage and balance, forcing 15 turnovers (12th nationally) with an elite +8 turnover margin and ranking 11th in defensive back havoc rate. While the front seven generates modest pressure (5.9% sack rate, 65th), DC Chris Ash’s unit leans on disciplined tackling (86.7% success rate) and an aggressive 60.9% man-coverage rate (3rd nationally) to limit sustained drives.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Boubacar Traore

Boubacar Traore has been Notre Dame’s most disruptive front-seven defender, leading the team with 6.5 sacks, 7.0 havoc plays, and a 96.3% tackle rate across seven games. His blend of power and quickness off the edge fuels a 9.2% pressure rate on 163 pass-rush snaps, while his 2.81-second average time to first pressure highlights how rapidly he collapses pockets. Traore has also proven dependable against the run, making 88.5% of his tackles on rushing plays and forcing a fumble while ranking among the team leaders in TFLs (5.5). His high motor and closing burst have made him a cornerstone of Notre Dame’s defensive line and a consistent problem for opposing quarterbacks.

Boston College Eagles

Head Coach: Bill O’Brien
2025 Record: 1-7
Offense Ranking: 96
Defense Ranking: 116
Strength of Schedule: 55

Boston College’s 2025 campaign has unraveled under Bill O’Brien, as the Eagles sit at 1–7 (0–5 ACC) with an SP+ ranking of 108th nationally and just 2.5 second-order wins, reflecting underperformance relative to expectations. Offensively, BC ranks 96th in SP+, showing flashes of efficiency on early downs but ranking outside the top 120 nationally in yards per rush (4.1) and yards before contact (0.62), a byproduct of a stagnant ground game and poor trench consistency. Defensively, the Eagles have cratered to 116th in SP+, allowing 6.07 yards per play (110th) and a 71.9% red-zone touchdown rate (117th), with one of the nation’s lowest havoc rates (12.2%, 120th) and little pressure generation (4.5% sack rate, 111th). With remaining matchups against Notre Dame, SMU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse—all projected losses—Boston College faces a realistic chance of finishing 1–11, continuing a steep regression from last year’s 7–6 bowl-winning season.

The Boston College Eagles Offense

Boston College’s offense has struggled to find consistency in 2025, ranking 96th nationally in offensive SP+ despite a balanced 43.3% success rate that masks serious inefficiencies in the run game. The Eagles rank just 124th in yards per rush (4.1) and 128th in yards before contact (0.62), forcing them into long-yardage passing situations where their 29.6% success rate on passing downs (73rd) limits drive sustainability. While the offensive line has held up in pass protection (2.2% pressure rate allowed, 48th nationally), the unit’s lack of explosiveness is evident — generating only 6.0% of plays of 20+ yards (80th) and averaging 5.43 yards per play (90th). Boston College’s tempo (25.1 seconds per play, 25th-fastest) and heavy outside receiver usage (47.5% of receptions) reflect O’Brien’s attempt to stretch the field, but the execution hasn’t produced the desired efficiency (2.11 points per drive, 86th).

Boston College Player to Watch on Offense: WR Lewis Bond

Lewis Bond has been Boston College’s most reliable target in 2025, leading the team with 74 targets, 56 receptions, and 547 yards, while posting a 75.7% catch rate and 55.1% success rate. Though his 9.8 yards per reception suggest a short-to-intermediate role, Bond has provided steady chain-moving production with half of his catches going for first downs. His route profile shows a balanced deployment — 46% of routes short, 35% intermediate, and 18% deep — making him a consistent outlet for high-percentage throws across both the slot (57% of receptions) and perimeter (32%). With only one drop (1.6%) on the season, Bond’s reliability and efficiency have made him the most dependable piece in an otherwise inconsistent Boston College passing attack.

The Boston College Eagles Defense

Boston College’s defense has been one of the weakest units in the ACC, ranking 116th nationally in defensive SP+ and surrendering 6.07 yards per play (110th) with opponents converting 42.0% of plays successfully (82nd). The Eagles’ red-zone defense has been especially porous, allowing 5.10 points per scoring opportunity (132nd) and a 71.9% touchdown rate, among the worst in FBS. A lack of disruption has plagued the front seven, as BC ranks 120th in havoc rate (12.2%), 130th in linebacker havoc, and just 111th in sacks per dropback (4.5%), offering minimal resistance on passing downs. Despite decent tackling efficiency (85.7%, 70th), the defense has struggled to hold up against explosive plays and remains a key reason for the team’s 1–7 start.

Boston College Player to Watch on Defense: DT Sedarius McConnell

Sedarius McConnell has been a disruptive interior presence for Boston College, ranking among the team leaders with 7.0 havoc plays, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks through seven games. His 88.5% tackle rate and 95.7% of tackles coming against the run highlight both consistency and strength at the point of attack, anchoring the Eagles’ defensive line. Though his 2.8% pressure rate on 144 rush attempts indicates limited pass-rushing efficiency, McConnell’s impact has been most visible in run defense and gap control, where he’s recorded seven run stops. Overall, he’s been one of the few steady contributors up front on a defense that has struggled to generate consistent disruption or pressure.

No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College team stats, betting trends

Notre Dame has won 5 in a row, while Boston College has lost 7 straight
Notre Dame has covered in 4 of its last 5 games as a road favorite
The OVER is 4-1 in Notre Dame’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 5-2-1 in Boston College’s games this season
Boston College is 3-5 ATS this season

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Boston College Team Total UNDER 13.5 Points

Boston College is having major issues on all fronts, and especially at quarterback where opening day starter Dylan Lonergan has been replaced by Grayson James, who was also tasked with taking over for departed QB Tommy Castellanos last year. BC’s lead RB Turbo Richard is banged up, while Notre Dame’s defense has leveled out after getting lit up by Miami/Texas A&M. They have held @Arkansas, Boise State and NC State (all far superior teams to BC) under 14 points, while BC failed to score two touchdowns against both Pitt and Clemson. I think BC is held Under 13.5 points against a motivated and ascending Notre Dame defense that is looking to stake their claim to a CFP Playoff spot.

****

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 12 Notre Dame and Boston College

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Boston College Eagles at +28.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 55.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NFL, NBA, and college football betting news and analysis.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)

Source link