No. 12 Ohio State women’s basketball vs. No. 10 Iowa: Preview and prediction

Stuelke is still an interior scoring threat, but now has the creativity in distribution to go alongside the made baskets. The senior developed more of a range in her shooting and will take baskets from midrange, not just inside the paint. However, Stuelke’s history of interior dominance means she can draw defenses away from the rim when she receives the basket, and this season, she has a partner under the rim who benefits from it mightily.

Advertisement

It is no surprise that Stuelke’s 2.9 assists per game career high runs parallel to another career high on the team for sophomore center Ava Heiden. After the freshman averaged 9.8 minutes per appearance, all from the bench, Jensen put Heiden into the starting lineup, where the 6-foot-4 big leads Iowa with 16.3 points per game.

Heiden is not a Euro-style big who will step back and hit long baskets (Heiden has one shot from deep this season, and she missed it). No, Heiden’s game is inside, where she takes advantage of one-on-one matchups with her ability to get around fellow bigs. Heiden is second in the conference with a 62.6% field goal percentage, behind only Penn State Nittany Lion center Gracie Merkle’s nation-leading 74.2%

The sophomore enters Sunday with 20 points in each of her last two games, both against ranked opponents in the then No. 15 Michigan State Spartans and current No. 15 Maryland Terrapins.

Now, if it were a one-on-one matchup, Ohio State center Elsa Lemmilä has started this season against UCLA Bruins’ 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts and the aforementioned Merkle. Even with Heiden’s ability inside, Lemmilä already has recent experience against the two best in the Big Ten, which Heiden could be in the coming years.

Advertisement

However, it will not be a one-on-one matchup with Stuelke and Heiden playing together. Ohio State does not have a second interior option to try to thwart the duo. It could be a primary focus for Iowa, with the high likelihood of Kitts’ absence.

Guard matchups

That means the Buckeyes need to either have the press working or hit a high percentage of shots to stay in the game. Iowa is not immune to turnovers, with 15.2 giveaways a game. The pressing Spartans forced 16, with 14 steals. Ohio State will need to frustrate the Hawkeyes, which requires communication — something not easily done in a normally raucous Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Every Buckeye on the roster will play their first game in Iowa against the Hawkeyes on Sunday. How have previous strong away environments against the UConn Huskies and Maryland Terrapins prepared Ohio State for the unique atmosphere challenge is a storyline to watch. If it impacts the Buckeyes and causes Ohio State to lose the turnover margin, and the lack of size inside to match the Hawkeyes, it could be ugly.

Advertisement

If the Scarlet and Gray can force turnovers, it could turn the crowd into a positive for the visitors. Go to any loaded arena, and the crowd becomes an extra official on the court. If guards Kennedy Cambridge, Ava Watson, and Jaloni Cambridge pick up the intensity and get steals, it will certainly come with some constructive criticism from the Hawkeye faithful.

On Iowa’s side, they are led at guard by Georgia Tech transfer sophomore Chit-Chat Wright. The guard averages a team-high 3.9 assists and 46.8% from deep, the best for any Iowa starter. If given space, Wright will take shots from deep. Also, at 5-foot-4, Wright can hide behind a screen and take the second or two she has to herself to throw up a three-point attempt.

Also, Wright is part of a Hawkeye side that is second in the conference in assists with 20.9. Iowa makes teams run with its extra passes and can expose any lazy movements or lapses in attention.