With Illinois losing twice in a row, the Michigan Wolverines are nearly a coinflip to win the Big Ten title outright. With Arizona losing on Monday, a path to the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll is as open as ever, too. However, Dusty May cannot afford to let his team get distracted now, as this week is the final one on the calendar without at least one gargantuan test.
The Northwestern Wildcats are not horrendous, but clearly sit a class below the Wolverines. 2026 has not been kind so far, as nine of 11 games have resulted in losses, including each of the last three. Odds are not with the home team in this one, and it would take something unforeseen to pull off the upset Wednesday. Michigan is locked in and must avoid all pitfalls.
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No. 2 Michigan (22-1, 12-1) at Northwestern (10-14, 2-11)
Date & Time: Wednesday, Feb. 11, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
TV/Streaming: BTN
Last season’s affair was a second consecutive overtime game for Michigan, though this one ended more favorably. It was far closer than it should have been for the Wolverines, but in the end they escaped with the four-point win at home. Vlad Goldin’s 31 points (including 10 free throws lol) were the headline, while three other starters hit double-digits as well, compared to a trio of Wildcats who each scored at least 19.
Two Stats to Watch
Northwestern Adj. Offense: 13th B1G
Neither side of the ball is too impressive for the Wildcats. With two-point shooting ranking 15th in conference play and three-point shooting also ranking 15th, it is just hard to win too many games. Northwestern does not rebound well (on either end), does not generate a ton of free throw attempts, and favors twos to threes while playing at an average tempo.
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This is obviously a big mismatch, but there are a few areas that appear to be strength-on-strength. First: turnovers. Nick Martinelli is the heart of the team and leads the group with a 28.7% usage rate. His 8.7% turnover rate is nearly top-100 nationally and sits below all of the Michigan regulars. The Wolverine defense has the fourth-highest turnover rate in the Big Ten, so this is something to watch.
Relatedly, the Wildcats have the second-highest assist rate in the conference, with Jayden Reid’s 5.1 APG fifth in Big Ten play. Michigan comes into this one with the lowest assist rate in the league. Finally, Northwestern does not get blocked much, with the third-lowest rate in the Big Ten; the Wolverines are first here, and Aday Mara, Morez Johnson, and Yaxel Lendeborg will all pose huge threats down low.
Northwestern Adj. Defense: 14th B1G
It is a similar story when it comes to the Northwestern defense. All of Kenpom’s four factors are below-average in conference play: eFG rate (14th), turnover rate (14th), defensive rebounding (13th), free throw rate (15th). Aside from block rate (8th) and free throw defense (which is more noise than something meaningful), there is not really any area that inspires a lot of confidence from this unit.
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The Michigan offense is elite in three of four categories, with the exception of turnovers. This might not be the case for long, though, as back-to-back games under 13% speak to the elevated focus the team has shown taking care of the ball compared to the struggles last season. Northwestern has not forced a turnover rate over 20% since Michigan State in early January and would need a lot of self-infliction by the visitors to get there on Wednesday.
The other place this game might get ugly is on the Michigan offensive glass. The Wolverines have been really impressive in this department recently, with five of the past eight games topping 40%; meanwhile, the past three games have seen the Wildcats’ opponents average over this mark when it comes to gathering their own misses. Michigan should not need many second chances to win comfortably, but expect them anyway.
