No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arkansas Razorbacks prediction: Odds, expert picks, trends, and stats

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (1-2) are on the road in Fayetteville, AR for a matchup with the SEC’s Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2).

The Irish outlasted a lengthy weather delay as well as the Purdue Boilermakers to earn their first win of the 2025 campaign, 56-30. CJ Carr completed 10 of 12 passes including two for touchdowns for a total of 223 yards and Jeremiyah Love got his season on track carrying the ball 19 times for 157 yards and a couple of touchdowns to pace the Notre Dame attack. The defense remains a concern, though, for Marcus Freeman, as the Boilermakers gained 303 yards through the air and 379 in total. A definite positive was Notre Dame’s ability to force four turnovers.

After nearly upsetting Ole Miss in Oxford a couple weeks ago, Arkansas suffered a second consecutive loss on the road as the Memphis Tigers scored the final 12 points of the game to win by a whisker, 32-31. QB Taylen Green threw for 325 yards and rushed for an additional 53 in the loss. This is the first of three straight for the Razorbacks against ranked opponents.

Lets learn a little more about these teams before seeking out a sweat or two.

Game Details and How to watch Notre Dame at Arkansas

Date: Saturday, September 27th, 2025

Game Odds for Notre Dame at Arkansas

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Arkansas (+164), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-198)
Spread: Notre Dame -4.5 (-112)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 1-2
Offense Ranking: 26th
Defense Ranking: 28th
Strength of Schedule: 38th

Notre Dame sits at 1–2 after a brutal early schedule, dropping one-score contests to top-20 SP+ teams Miami (FL) and Texas A&M before bouncing back to throttle Purdue 56–30. Offensively, the Irish have been potent (26th in marginal explosiveness, 28th in yards per successful play) but not particularly efficient (45.8% success rate, 51st), ranking 22nd overall in SP+ thanks to elite passing metrics: 68.3% completion rate, 12.2 ANY/A (15th), and a 77.2 QBR (23rd). However, defensive lapses have kept them from capitalizing, as Notre Dame ranks 32nd in Defensive SP+ despite surrendering 8.9 ANY/A (103rd), 7.6 yards/dropback (117th), a dismal sack rate and a troubling 20.0% pressure rate (120th). The schedule softens considerably the rest of the way, with SP+ favoring the Irish in 8 of their final 9 games and projecting a strong finish of around 9–3.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense

Notre Dame’s offense has taken a step back from last year, ranking 22nd in Offensive SP+ while producing 6.66 yards per play (31st) and 2.97 points per drive (41st). They’ve done well finishing drives, ranking Top 30 nationally in red zone (75%) and goal-to-go (87.5%) touchdown rates, and are averaging a robust 12.2 adjusted net yards per attempt (15th) through the air. The Irish passing game is explosive and precise, with a 68.3% completion rate (30th), 18.1 yards per successful dropback (14th), and 23.2% of completions going for 20+ yards (19th). However, the run game has been less consistent, as Notre Dame ranks just 67th in rushing success rate (45.2%) and struggles with a 105th-ranked stuff rate, indicating some vulnerability in short-yardage and early down ground production.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr

Through his first three collegiate starts, CJ Carr has delivered a promising mix of poise and explosiveness, completing 66.2% of his passes for 737 yards with a 5:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His efficiency is underscored by a stellar 15.0 yards per completion and a 10.2 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), placing him among the nation’s most vertically competent quarterbacks. Despite showing solid command, Carr has taken sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks and been pressured on 30.0% of his pressures, indicating some vulnerability under duress. On the ground, he’s contributed 40 rushing yards and a score on 10 carries, but with an elevated 56.3% of rushes going for zero or negative yardage and a lost fumble.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense

Notre Dame’s defense has underperformed, ranking 32nd in Defensive SP+ but 114th in passing success rate allowed and 100th in yards per play allowed (5.88). The Irish have struggled to create negative plays, ranking 126th in havoc rate and 128th in sacks per dropback, while also allowing a nation-worst 10.9 yards per dropback in zone coverage. Despite these issues, they have done a respectable job limiting rushing explosiveness, allowing just 6.7 yards per successful run (13th nationally), and ranking 24th in yards per rush allowed (3.6). Red zone efficiency remains a concern, with opponents scoring touchdowns on 63.6% of red zone trips and 100% of goal-to-go opportunities.

Notre Dame Player to Watch: LB Drayk Bowen

The true sophomore Drayk Bowen leads Notre Dame in total tackles (17) through two games, posting a strong 77.3% tackle success rate while shouldering a 70.6% run tackle share from his inside linebacker spot. While he has yet to register a havoc play—no TFLs, sacks, interceptions, or forced fumbles—his reliability in base run defense has been a key component of the Irish front seven. Bowen’s pass rushing impact has been minimal with zero pressures on 10 pass rush attempts, and a moderate 3.57-second time to first pressure. In coverage, he’s allowed a perfect 2-for-2 completion rate for 18 yards and a touchdown, resulting in an opposing QBR of 85.1 when targeted.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Head Coach: Sam Pittman
2025 Record: 2-2
Offense Ranking: 8th
Defense Ranking: 53rd
Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Arkansas has paired one of the nation’s most explosive offenses with a defense still struggling to find its footing through four games. The Razorbacks’ offense ranks 8th in SP+, posting 8.12 yards per play (5th nationally), a 54.4% success rate (11th), and a 94.1% red zone touchdown rate (2nd), led by a dominant ground game averaging 6.8 yards per non-sack carry (8th) and 0.33 EPA/rush (7th). Defensively, however, they rank just 53rd in SP+ and have been gashed on the ground (123rd in rushing success rate allowed) while allowing 42.5% success rate overall (96th), despite decent playmaking from the secondary (33rd in DB Havoc Rate). With a 2–2 record and the nation’s second-toughest remaining schedule, Arkansas faces a razor-thin margin for error to reach bowl eligibility, even with their prolific offense.

The Arkansas Razorbacks Offense

Arkansas’ offense has been one of the most efficient and explosive units in the country, ranking 8th in SP+ and 5th in yards per play (8.12). The Razorbacks are averaging 3.70 points per drive (13th) and converting third downs at a 61.9% clip (6th), thanks to a ground game that ranks 8th in yards per carry (6.8) and 7th in EPA per rush. They’ve dominated in scoring opportunities, leading the nation in goal-to-go touchdown rate (100%) and ranking 2nd in red zone TD rate (94.1%). With elite offensive line protection (4th in pressure rate allowed) and a 90.5 team Total QBR (4th), Arkansas has the firepower to compete with anyone.

Arkansas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Taylen Green

Taylen Green has emerged as a dynamic dual-threat quarterback for Arkansas, showcasing efficiency as a passer and explosiveness as a runner. Through four starts, Green has thrown for 1,191 yards and 12 touchdowns to just four interceptions while averaging 14.7 yards per completion and producing a strong 10.2 ANY/A and 90.5 QBR. As a rusher, he leads the team with 372 yards on just 41 attempts (9.07 YPC), boasting a staggering 70.7% rushing success rate, 63.4% first down rate per carry and with 40.9% of his attempts going for 10+ yards. His rare blend of efficiency and explosiveness makes him one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the SEC.

The Arkansas Razorbacks Defense

Arkansas’ defense has struggled with consistency, ranking 53rd in SP+ and 76th in yards per play allowed (5.40), despite a strong showing against the run in terms of havoc and negative plays. The Razorbacks allow a 42.5% success rate (96th) and surrender 1.85 points per drive (68th). Pass defense has been inconsistent, allowing 16.2 yards per successful dropback (113th), with opponents completing 58.7% of passes and gaining 5.9 yards per attempt. While they rank 33rd in DB havoc rate (7.3%) and 16th in man-to-zone coverage ratio (55.3%), their inability to get consistent stops on third down (112th) remains a major liability.

Arkansas Player To Watch on Defense: LB Quincy Rhodes Jr.

Rhodes Jr. has emerged as a core contributor on the Arkansas defensive front, posting 5.0 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss across just four games, with an impressive 92.3% tackle rate. He’s responsible for generating 9 total pressures on 61 pass-rush attempts, and has created three sacks with a strong 14.8% pressure rate. Rhodes leads all Razorback defenders with 6 havoc plays, demonstrating elite play disruption against both the run and pass. His high tackle share on running plays (91.7% of his tackles coming vs. the run) underscores his value as an edge-setter and backfield penetrator.

Notre Dame at Arkansas team stats, betting trends

Arkansas has won 17 of its last 20 games against teams with worse records
Notre Dame has covered in 4 of its last 5 games as a road favorite
CJ Carr has thrown for at least 221yds in each of his 3 starts
Jeremiyah Love is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season

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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Taylen Green 50+ Rushing Yards (-110) and anytime TD (-150) vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s pass rush and havoc rates did not get that much better against Purdue, and it is clear that the Fighting Irish’s defense is not what it once was. With that being said, Taylen Green should have a day against the Irish defense. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed had 37 yards on Notre Dame and Green is more athletic and rans far more often. Green has 26 rushing attempts in the last two games with only two of those being sacks. He could break a 25-plus yard run at any time and with a game total in the 60’s, I like the chance Green scores and goes for 50-plus rushing yards.

Eric Froton (@CFFroton): QB Taylen Green OVER 49.5yds rushing

The heartbeat of this Arkansas offense is potential Heisman contending QB Taylen Green, who paces the Razorbacks phenomenal rush attack thanks 8th in yards per carry (6.8) and 7th in EPA per rush. For his part Green has cleared his 49.5 rushing yards line 3 of 4 games this year with 2 showings of 110+ yards. With ND tanking 128th in sacks per dropback and Green being lethal outside of structure, I’m taking Arkansas’ signal caller to clear his very reasonable 49.5yds rushing.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Notre Dame and Arkansas:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at -3.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the over on the Game Total of 64.5.

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