For the fourth year in a row, the Michigan Wolverines will face their in-state rival in primetime, though none of the prior three matchups have deserved any sort of spotlight. The same is the case this weekend, as the visitors are favored by two scores over the beleaguered Michigan State Spartans, who are riding a four-game losing streak — and a coach who is perhaps on the way out.
Pulling the plug on Jonathan (C) Smith this early may feel reactionary, but wooing a head coach from his alma mater (and bringing his four-star quarterback with him) is supposed to lead to a better record than 8-11. But while the arrows are pointing up in Ann Arbor, the opposite is true in East Lansing. That dichotomy should be put on display Saturday night.
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No. 25 Michigan (5-2, 3-1) at Michigan State (3-4, 0-4)
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
TV/Streaming: NBC
The 2022 affair was pretty dull, with Jake Moody’s five field goals slowly amassing the eventual 29-7 victory. That was followed by some J.J. McCarthy fireworks in 2023 as State was extremely lucky to avoid the bountiful injuries caused by advanced scouting; while no injuries were inflicted by the Wolverines, they did damage the scoreboard to the tune of 49-0. Last year’s night game was the worst of the bunch in a forgettable 24-17 contest.
Offense: Don’t let him get hot
Again, I do not think this really warrants a primetime slot (though note that there are not many great games on this Big Ten slate), but the one way this game gets exciting is if the state-of-Michigan product goes off. This is Bryce Underwood’s first rivalry exposure and it is hard to not think back to McCarthy’s annihilation the last time the Wolverines were on this field.
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Underwood is in start No. 8, so a McCarthy-level performance is a stretch, but the elements are there for a big outing. For one, the State secondary has been pretty horrid (bottom 25 nationally) and has given up 3+ passing touchdowns in the three of the past four games. This is great news for Michigan, who figured out how to use the tight ends against Washington and is seeing Andrew Marsh emerge as a potential game-changer.
On the road and in a rivalry game, Underwood could get a little antsy, but Chip Lindsey has been pushing all of the right buttons lately. The Wolverines will still play complementary football and look to move some progress on the ground, especially as this run defense is allowing 5.11 (!!) YPC in Big Ten play. Jordan Marshall is the latest tough runner to don the maize and blue and will relish the chance to impose his will.
SP+ has this defense ranked 90th overall which is the second-worst unit Michigan has seen to date (even lower than CMU). Scoring 49 like in 2023 is a bit much to ask, but the season-high of 34 against New Mexico should be in play. With an easier stretch coming up, this should be a chance to really have some fun. Underwood is the key here, but playcalling remains equally important, and exciting!
Defense: Cautiously…neutral
Nope. One good game by Wink Martindale is not enough to pretend like everything is back to November 2024, but I suppose the pitchforks can be put down for the moment. This will be a good test to see what is real and what is illusion against a fairly average offense (66th per SP+) but one that surely will throw the kitchen sink in its biggest game of the year.
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Aidan Chiles was supposed to get this program back on track after arriving with Smith for Corvallis, but that hope is quickly dissipating. A 59.4% complete rate last season has ticked up to 65.1% this year, but that comes with a slight reduction in YPA (7.2). He is taking better care of the ball this season with only 3 interceptions so far, and he has scored 5 rushing touchdowns as well, but overall Chiles has a bottom-15 passer rating against Power Four opposition.
Chiles is not helped out by a run game that ranks 109th nationally at 3.7 YPC. Leading rusher Makhi Frazier has not scored in four Big Ten games, though is not the only party at fault, as the offensive line looks incapable of doing much to help out. Speaking to the issues up front, State has allowed 19 sacks already, a bottom-25 figure nationally.
Michigan has the talent to dominate this side of the ball, so again it will come down to how Martindale chooses to play this. There is no reason to not force Chiles to win with his arm, as even with Nick Marsh he will struggle to consistently do so. He will use his legs if given the opportunity like John Mateer and Demond Williams, so containing and playing a little conservatively is the right approach. Doing so should cause plenty of frustration from whatever crowd shows up for the home team.
Fun, not fear
This is no one’s favorite rivalry, but that does not mean it cannot be fun. Trips to Spartan Stadium in 2016 and 2018 were shrouded in trepidation, as recent horrors caused negative thoughts to surface, and the game in 2021 did not help that narrative, but since then this contest has been extremely one-sided. Michigan is back to the point where going on the road and taking over State’s house should be a welcomed thought.
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There are still some ways that this goes poorly. One is road Underwood popping up again, rushing his mechanics and not letting plays develop. There could be some freshman moments, but after last weekend it is hard to doubt that his natural ability is going to bring more good than bad. The other fear is Chiles keeping plays alive and hitting deep shots to Marsh downfield, who is the team’s only real threat. The Spartans should and will target him often.
At the end of the day, though, this is a lopsided battle between a dark horse Big Ten and College Football Playoff contender and a program wondering how long it must wait before hitting reset. Underwood, Marshall, Andrew Marsh, and a host of defenders have a chance to flex the (growing) talent gap between these rivals. Sherrone Moore would love to make a statement as well, putting all the ingredients in place for quite the evening.
