No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU prediction: Updated odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

Undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the nation, the Aggies of Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0) travel to Tiger Stadium to take on what has to be a desperate, 20th-ranked LSU (5-2, 2-2) team Saturday night.

While the Aggies will be looking to remain undefeated, atop the SEC, and on a path to the playoff, the Tigers will be trying to get their season back on track and resurrect their hopes for a playoff berth.

Texas A&M has not won in Baton Rouge since 1994. But this is not your ordinary season. The Aggies no longer rely on low-scoring, defensive games. Marcel Reed
and his bevy of talented wideouts are as dynamic an offense as any south of Indiana.

LSU’s offense was supposed to be dynamic this season and yet it is sometimes not even functional. Garrett Nussmeier and his receivers have yet to get on the same page for a full 60 minutes.

Lets dive into the game, look at each of the schools, and see if we can find an advantage.

Game Details and How to watch No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU

Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025

Game Odds for No, 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU

The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Texas A&M (-135), LSU Tigers (+114)
Spread: Texas A&M -2.5 (-115)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

LSU Tigers

Head Coach: Brian Kelly
2025 Record: 5-2
Offense Ranking: 48
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 4

Through seven games, LSU stands 5–2 (2–2 SEC) with a No. 19 SP+ ranking, reflecting one of the nation’s best defenses (No. 6 SP+) paired with an inconsistent offense (No. 48 SP+). The Tigers’ defense, coordinated by Blake Baker, allows only 4.77 yards per play and ranks 13th in points per drive allowed, thriving on a Top 25 pass defense and strong front-seven disruption. Offensively, Joe Sloan’s unit has been efficient through the air (67.3% completions, 8.0 ANY/A) but ranks just 118th in finishing drives and 112th in rushing success rate, hampered by poor run blocking and short-yardage execution. With a closing stretch that includes Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma, LSU’s elite defense gives them a chance to reach 8–9 wins, though offensive execution will determine whether they contend for a CFP Playoff spot.

The LSU Tigers Offense

Under offensive coordinator Joe Sloan, LSU’s attack ranks 48th in offensive SP+, marked by strong passing efficiency but glaring inconsistency on the ground. The Tigers boast a 67.3% completion rate (25th) and rank a respectable 40th in EPA/dropback, but their 112th-ranked rushing success rate and 126th stuff rate highlight major issues with line play and short-yardage conversions. LSU averages just 3.91 points per scoring opportunity (118th nationally), signaling red-zone struggles and poor drive finishing despite ranking Top 25 in passing success rate (48.5%). The offense’s lack of explosiveness through the air (125th) has been offset by chain-moving efficiency, but without improved trench play and situational execution the Tigers risk wasting one of the nation’s best defenses.

LSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Garrett Nussmeier

Garrett Nussmeier has provided steady leadership for LSU’s offense, completing 66.4% of his passes for 1,638 yards and 11 touchdowns against five interceptions over seven starts. His efficiency metrics reflect a confident downfield passer capable of sustaining drives despite moderate explosiveness (10.6 yards per completion). PFF grades him at 81.3 as a passer, supported by a 76.6% adjusted completion rate and a 6.3% big-time-throw rate, showing accuracy and touch under pressure while taking sacks on just 3.7% of dropbacks. Nussmeier has chipped in with 67 rushing yards and a score, demonstrating enough mobility to extend plays and keep defenses honest. The hopes of LSU rest on Nussmeier and the wide receiver corps stretching defenses to help open things up for a struggling run game.

The LSU Tigers Defense

Defensive coordinator Blake Baker has transformed LSU’s defense into one of the nation’s most suffocating units, ranking 6th in SP+ and 13th in points per drive allowed. The Tigers excel at limiting big plays, allowing just 4.77 yards per play and ranking 24th nationally in defensive explosiveness, while holding opponents to a 38.5% success rate. Their pass defense has been elite, yielding only 5.1 yards per dropback (20th) and producing a 37.6% pressure rate (11th) despite blitzing at one of the nation’s lowest frequencies. Although the front seven has room to improve against the run, LSU’s ability to win passing downs and finish drives has made the defense the backbone of its 2025 campaign.

LSU Player to Watch on Defense: LB Harold Perkins Jr.

Harold Perkins Jr. has continued to showcase his trademark explosiveness in a hybrid LB/edge role, producing 33 tackles, 6 havoc plays, and 4.0 TFLs through six games. His disruptive ability remains elite, recording 8 pressures and 2 sacks on just 46 pass-rush snaps for a 17.4% pressure rate, one of the highest on LSU’s defense. Perkins has also proven effective in coverage from the slot, notching two pass breakups and holding up well in space despite frequent one-on-one matchups. His versatility as a blitzer, run defender, and coverage weapon makes him a cornerstone of LSU’s aggressive defensive front under Blake Baker.

Texas A&M Aggies

Head Coach: Mike Elko
2025 Record: 7-0
Offense Ranking: 6
Defense Ranking: 22
Strength of Schedule: 21

Under Mike Elko, Texas A&M has surged to a 7-0 start and a Top 10 SP+ ranking (7th overall) thanks to a balance of efficiency and discipline on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Aggies rank 6th in SP+, pairing a 46.9% success rate (30th nationally) with an elite offensive line that allows pressure on only 1.5% of dropbacks (11th). Defensively, Jay Bateman’s unit ranks 22nd in SP+, built on a Top 20 success-rate defense (35.6%), a disruptive 18.7% havoc rate, and a 9.8% sack rate (4th nationally) that consistently flips field position. While not the most explosive team, A&M’s ability to sustain drives, limit big plays, and excel in standard-downs efficiency has made them a legitimate SEC and College Football Playoff (70.5% chance) contender entering the back half of the 2025 season.

The Texas A&M Aggies Offense

Texas A&M’s offense has emerged as one of the most balanced attacks in the country, ranking 6th in Offensive SP+ and 30th in success rate (46.9%). Under new coordinator Collin Klein, the Aggies are thriving on standard downs (58% Succ Rate, 4th), while maintaining one of the lowest pressure-allowed rates (1.5%, 11th) behind a fortified offensive line. The run game averages 5.3 yards per carry with a healthy 46.1% rushing success rate, while the passing attack generates 8.1 yards per dropback (16th) and converts 22.5% of completions into 20+ yard gains (13th). Efficient, explosive, and versatile, A&M’s offense sustains drives at a 75.3% down-set conversion rate and ranks among the nation’s best in red-zone execution with a 74.1% touchdown rate (16th).

Texas A&M Player to Watch on Offense: QB Marcel Reed

Marcel Reed encapsulates the dual-threat skillset that has traditionally thrived in OC Colin Klein’s offense, throwing for 1,770 yards and 15 touchdowns with a 61.9% completion rate and 14.2 yards per completion through seven starts. As a passer, he’s shown strong efficiency with a 9.7 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and just a 2.9% sack rate, ranking among the SEC’s most poised young quarterbacks under pressure. On the ground, Reed has added 288 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry, with 44.4% rushing success and an ability to create chunk plays off broken containment. His combination of vertical passing and mobility has provided balance to the Aggies’ attack, making him a central figure in Texas A&M’s Top 10 SP+ offense.

The Texas A&M Aggies Defense

Texas A&M’s defense under coordinator Jay Bateman has developed one of the more dependable units in the SEC, ranking 22nd in Defensive SP+ and 16th nationally in defensive success rate (35.6%). The Aggies thrive in the trenches, generating pressure on 34.3% of opponent dropbacks (34th) and converting those into sacks 30.9% of the time (9th), while boasting a Top 20 overall havoc rate (18.7%) fueled by Edge Cashius Howell and a dominant defensive line. Against the run, they limit opponents to 5.24 yards per play (49th) and an elite 0.56 yards before contact per rush (12th), forcing long down-and-distance situations. Complemented by strong situational defense including a 22.7% third-down conversion rate allowed (2nd nationally), A&M’s pressure-oriented scheme has been a catalyst for its unbeaten start.

Texas A&M Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Cashius Howell

Cashius Howell has thrived as a breakout pass-rushing force, recording 8.5 sacks and 22 total pressures through seven games while posting an elite 19.0% pressure rate on 116 rush attempts. His explosiveness off the edge has generated 12.0 havoc plays and 8.5 tackles for loss, giving the Aggies a relentless disruptor in opponent backfields. Howell has also been efficient at closing plays, forcing six drive-ending sacks and ranking among the SEC’s most productive edge defenders with a 2.64-second average time to pressure. With his mix of speed, bend, and finishing ability, Howell has become the centerpiece of A&M’s high havoc front seven and a potential 1st Round NFL Draft selection.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU team stats, betting trends

Texas A&M is on a 7-game winning streak
Texas A&M has failed to cover the Spread in its last 5 games as a road favorite
Texas A&M’s last 7 road games have gone OVER the Total

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): LSU Under 23.5 Team Points

LSU generates completions of 20+ yards 10% of the time (125th), sacrificing explosiveness for passing efficiency (67% Comp Rate = 25th), which could be a product of Nussmeier’s rumored abdominal injury or a reflection of LSU’s more formidable defense this year. Despite getting into shootouts with Notre Dame and Arkansas, Texas A&M has held their three other SEC opponents (Auburn, Miss State, Florida) to just 10 – 9- and 17 points in the three contests in between ND and ARK. The Tigers’ HIGHEST point total vs. FBS opponents this season is a paltry 24 points vs. Vanderbilt last week. The LSU faithful could turn on New Hampshire carpet-bagger Brian Kelly with a loss here, and I’m taking LSU to go Under 23.5 Team Points.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAAF calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Texas A&M and LSU

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the LSU Tigers at +2.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 47.5.

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