No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player overviews, trends, and stats

The college football spotlight in Week 7 features a number of intriguing matchups, but none more interesting than the clash of unbeaten Big Ten powers in Eugene, OR where the No. 3 Ducks (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) host the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten).

As they did last year, the Hoosiers bring to the field one of the nation’s elite offenses. The difference this year is their defense looks to be top shelf as well. Don’t look now, but Curt Cignetti is turning Indiana into a football school.

The Oregon Ducks were expected to take a step back with Dante Moore at quarterback to start this season, but if this is a step back, wow! Moore and the Ducks are averaging 32 points per game in Big Ten play and have yet to score fewer than 30 through five games this season. The Oregon defense appreciates the scoring, but they have not needed that many points as they are allowing just a touch over 12 points per game.

Get your popcorn and drinks ready. This has all the makings of a must watch tilt. Lets take a deeper dive into it and look at each school on both sides of the ball along with a couple of key players for each. Maybe we’ll find a couple of sweats along the way.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon

Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025

Game Odds for No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon

The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Indiana Hoosiers (+225), Oregon Ducks (-278)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Indiana Hoosiers

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 5-0
Offense Ranking: 7
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 37

The Indiana Hoosiers have surged to a 5–0 start in 2025 under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti, boasting Top 10 national rankings in overall (3rd), offensive (7th), and defensive (6th) SP+ efficiency. Offensively, they rank 1st in overall success rate (57.4%) and 2nd in passing success rate (60.9%), fueled by an elite 14.0 adjusted net yards per attempt and a 72.8% completion rate (9th). The defense has been dominant across all levels, ranking Top 5 nationally in success rate (2nd), standard down defense (1st), pass defense efficiency (3rd), and havoc rate (1st overall). With a projected path to at least 10 regular season wins and a resume SP+ ranking of 1st in the country, Indiana is a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.

The Indiana Hoosiers Offense

The Indiana Hoosiers offense in 2025 has emerged as one of the most efficient and balanced attacks in the country, ranking 1st nationally in success rate (57.4%) and 5th in EPA/play (0.33). The unit is equally dangerous through the air and on the ground, ranking 2nd in passing success rate (60.9%) and 4th in rushing success rate (55.1%), with a 6.3-yard average per carry and an elite 14.0 adjusted net yards per attempt. Indiana converts 84.1% of its new set of downs (5th) and leads the nation in 3rd down conversion rate at 58.3%, sustaining drives at a relentless pace. Despite a slow tempo (111th in seconds/play), OC Mike Shanahan’s offense is marrying elite red zone execution (79.3% TD rate, 12th) and Top 10 explosiveness on 20+ yard plays (9.5%, 11th nationally).

Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza has vaulted into 1st Round NFL Draft consideration with strong command and efficiency in his five starts, completing 73% of his passes for 1,208 yards and an impressive 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He is averaging 13.6 yards per completion and 12.2 adjusted net yards per attempt, contributing to a robust QBR of 81.8. Mendoza also adds value on the ground, rushing 25 times for 132 yards (5.28 YPC) with a 60% success rate and two touchdowns, although over a quarter of his runs have been stopped for zero or negative yardage. His balanced production as both a passer and rusher makes Mendoza one of the top signal callers in the country.

The Indiana Hoosiers Defense

The Indiana Hoosiers defense is playing at an elite level in 2025, ranking 6th in SP+, 2nd in success rate allowed (28.5%), and 3rd in yards per play allowed (4.21). They suffocate opponents early in drives with a 1st-ranked down set conversion rate (48.1%) and 3rd-ranked rate of plays gaining ≤0 yards (44.5%), while also excelling in situational football, holding teams to a microscopic 23.8% 3rd down conversion rate (7th nationally). Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has orchestrated a relentless unit that leads the nation in overall Havoc Rate (29.8%) and ranks Top 5 in both DL and DB Havoc, despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates in the country (120th). Indiana pairs disruption with red zone dominance, allowing touchdowns on just 33.3% of opponent red zone trips (6th) and surrendering a mere 0.75 points per drive (3rd), though they are allowing a troubling 13.4 yards per successful play (129th).

Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Kellen Wyatt

Wyatt has been a terror off the edge for the Wolfpack, tallying 24 total tackles (10 solo) through five games with a stellar 96.0% tackle rate. He leads the team with 9 havoc plays, including 7.0 tackles for loss and 1 sack, while contributing 9 total run stops, ranking among the team leaders in backfield disruption. As a pass rusher, Wyatt generated 4 pressures on 50 pass-rush snaps for an 8.0% pressure rate, with 2 sacks created and a solid 2.85 second time-to-first pressure. Wyatt’s consistent production and strong run defense anchor the edge for NC State’s front.

Oregon Ducks

Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 5-0
Offense Ranking: 2
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 25

The Oregon Ducks are dominating through five games with a perfect 5-0 record and a No. 1 overall SP+ ranking, backed by a Top 3 offense and defense in the country. Offensively, the Ducks average 7.47 yards per play (8th), rank 2nd nationally in points per drive (4.06), and are deadly efficient on both standard (59.9%, 3rd) and third downs (50.8%, 21st), while also boasting the nation’s lowest havoc rate allowed (7.1%). Defensively, Oregon holds opponents to just 4.16 yards per play (11th), ranks 8th in EPA/play allowed, and limits explosive plays (2nd in marginal explosiveness and 3rd in 20+ yard play rate). Despite a weak early strength of schedule (SOS rank: 79), the Ducks project as favorites in every remaining game, with a 40% chance to finish undefeated and a 68.9% shot at reaching the College Football Playoff according to SP+.

The Oregon Ducks Offense

Oregon’s offense ranks 2nd nationally in SP+ and is shredding defenses with a lethal blend of efficiency and explosiveness. The Ducks are converting 52.5% of their plays into successful gains (11th), averaging 7.47 yards per play (8th), and scoring a blistering 4.06 points per drive pace (2nd). The Ducks rank Top 15 in both EPA per rush (0.29, 6th) and EPA per dropback (0.47, 7th), while completing 72.6% of passes and generating a 13.0 ANY/A (7th). Oregon also boasts the nation’s lowest havoc rate allowed (7.1%), reflecting elite protection and play design that neutralizes disruption.

Oregon Player to Watch on Offense: QB Dante Moore

Dante Moore has been a revelation through five starts, completing 74.6% of his passes for 1,210 yards and an impressive 14-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s been hyper-efficient with 12.1 yards per completion, 10.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), and a strong Total QBR of 79.8. Moore has taken just one sack (0.7% sack rate), demonstrating elite poise and quick decision-making behind a clean offensive line that allows pressure on only 3.4% of dropbacks. As a runner, Moore has added 131 yards at 5.7 yards per carry with a solid 47.8% success rate and just 8.3% of his runs going for zero or negative yardage.

The Oregon Ducks Defense

Oregon’s defense has emerged as a Top 5 unit nationally in SP+ (3rd), built on elite efficiency and suffocating coverage. The Ducks allow just 4.16 yards per play (11th), rank 8th in defensive EPA/play, and are holding opponents to a paltry 1.11 points per drive (14th). They rank 2nd in explosiveness allowed and 3rd in 3-and-out rate, while yielding only 33.3% passing success (18th) and 3.9 yards per rush (27th). Backed by a disruptive linebacker corps generating the 2nd-best LB havoc rate (8.7%) and a defense that ranks 3rd in raw QBR allowed (21.2), Oregon is smothering opposing offenses at every level.

Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Mateo Uiagalelei

Matayo Uiagalelei has been a havoc maven on the edge for Oregon, tallying 16 total tackles—including 13 solo—while converting his 97 pass rushes into 17 pressures and a team-high 4 sacks. His 17.5% pressure rate leads all Duck defenders with over 20 pass rushes, and he has generated 16 first pressures with a 2.80-second average time to first pressure. Uiagalelei has also contributed 6 havoc plays, 4 TFLs, and 1 run stop, showcasing his versatility against both the run and pass. He is a central pillar of Oregon’s pass rush unit and a future first round draft selection.

No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 3 Oregon Ducks team stats, betting trends

Oregon has won all 3 home games this season following a win
Oregon has covered in its last 5 games as a home favorite
The Over is 14-6 in Indiana’s last 10 on the road and Oregon’s last 10 at home combined
Indiana is 3-2 ATS this season
Oregon is 4-1 ATS this season

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Dante Moore Under 260.5 Passing Yards

Indiana’s defense ranks 3rd in passing success rate allowed (27.6%) and 1st in both net yards per attempt (3.8) and interception rate (5.6%). I have a hard time believing Oregon OC Will Stein sees a path to victory in airing it out against Indiana’s ferocious defense that ranks 1st in DL havoc rate and 4th in DB havoc rate. Last week QB Dante Moore threw for 246 yards in a double-overtime game vs. Penn State. I sincerely doubt Moore clears that number with Indiana’s far more capable and efficient offense sucking up clock and snaps, so I’m taking Dante Moore to go Under 260.5 Passing Yards.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 7 Indiana and No. 3 Oregon:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Indiana Hoosiers at +7.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 54.5.

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