No NFC South champ until Sunday after Bucs beat Panthers

TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers held off the Carolina Panthers 16-14 to snap a four-game losing streak, setting up a thrilling Sunday, when the NFC South winner will be decided by what happens between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has said he was not a Saints fan, but he told ESPN after Saturday’s game that “I am tomorrow!”

If the Saints defeat the Falcons on Sunday, the Bucs would secure the division at 8-9. It would mark the first time a team has won five straight division championships since conference realignment in 2002, and would tie the Bucs for third-most titles in league history for any division.

A Falcons victory would give Carolina (8-9) its first playoff berth since 2017 and first NFC South title since 2015.

Biggest surprise: With wide receivers Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan occupying so much attention from the Panthers’ defense (zero targes in three quarters for Godwin) — plus the Panthers’ zone coverage and rainy conditions — Mayfield relied heavily on tight end Cade Otton, who hauled in seven of nine targets for 94 yards and an 18-yard touchdown. Otton’s 20-yard grab with 2:12 to go also helped seal the win. Otton hadn’t been targeted to that degree since Week 10 against the Patriots (12).

What to make of the quarterback performance: Otton’s score was Mayfield’s first touchdown pass on a ball thrown 15-plus yards downfield since the Bucs’ Week 6 win over the 49ers, illustrating just how much Tampa Bay has missed an aerial attack this season. Mayfield completed 12 of 17 passes for 146 passing yards and an interception, which occurred when he failed to account for Christian Rozeboom, who swooped in front of Egbuka on a post route at the Tampa Bay 39. That turnover set up a Tommy Tremble touchdown to cut Tampa’s lead to 10-7. Mayfield used his legs too, rushing for 31 yards, including an 11-yard scramble on a third-and-3. But far too many times, the Bucs had to settle for Chase McLaughlin field goals.

Turning point: With coach Todd Bowles calling a safety blitz, sending Antoine Winfield Jr. on fourth-and-8 with 3:10 to go in the fourth quarter, rookie cornerback Jacob Parrish (starting in place of Jamel Dean) surrendered a 40-yard reception to Tetairoa McMillan, whom Parrish tackled at the Tampa Bay 16. Then, cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who took over for the injured Zyon McCollum, gave up an 8-yard touchdown on a corner route to trim the Bucs’ lead to 16-14. Up to that point, Parrish had allowed one catch to McMillan, and he intercepted a pass intended for McMillan just before halftime.

Stat to know: Heading into the game, the Bucs had surrendered 100 yards on the ground in four straight games for the first time since 2018.They were able to regain control of the line of scrimmage Saturday, surrendering only 19 rushing yards to the Panthers.

End of an era?: With 11:15 to go in the fourth quarter, 14-year veteran Lavonte David made what could be the last big play of his career. He recovered a Rico Dowdle fumble for the 21st recovery of his career, most among all active players. It was also his 35th career takeaway, joining Hall of Famers Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher as the only players with 40-plus sacks and 35-plus takeaways since at least 1982. David’s six tackles tied him with Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks for the most in franchise history at 1,714. — Jenna Laine

Next game: TBD

Stay tuned. Now, the Panthers have become huge Falcons fans.

An Atlanta victory over New Orleans on Sunday would help the Panthers forget how they bungled away Saturday’s game against Tampa Bay. They would win the NFC South and make the playoffs by virtue of the tiebreaker — a 3-1 record over the Bucs and Falcons.

If the banged-up Saints win, Carolina will spend the offseason haunted by its sloppy play at rain-soaked Raymond James Stadium.

There is plenty of blame for this loss, from coaching to another subpar game by quarterback Bryce Young (until the fourth quarter) to an ineffective running game that netted 19 yards.

The Panthers no longer control their destiny, and they have only themselves to blame.

Turning point: The Panthers were being dominated 10-0 and had 27 yards of offense early in the second quarter when Rozeboom intercepted a Mayfield pass. Young answered with a touchdown pass to Tremble that seemed to settle Carolina on both sides of the ball.

Controversial play: Young, under pressure in the third quarter, threw the ball to his right on first-and-10 from Tampa’s 34. Officials ruled it incomplete, and the play was whistled dead with Dowdle holding the ball. On the replay, it appeared it was a backward pass, but because the whistle was blown, Dowdle couldn’t advance the ball, and Carolina took a 7-yard loss. Ryan Fitzgerald then missed a 54-yard field goal.

Most surprising performance: With the Panthers at the Bucs’ 20 and trailing 16-7, Carolina coach Dave Canales called a flea-flicker on first down, but the play resulted in a fumble, which Tampa recovered. Instead of maintaining the drive and potentially making it a one-score game, the risky call left Carolina scuffling to catch up the rest of the game. — David Newton

Next game: TBD