Noche UFC 3 odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Lopes vs. Silva

Noche UFC 3 goes down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 13, 2025) inside Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas (not Guadalajara, Mexico). The main event is Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva in the Featherweight division, with both men hoping a big win carves out a title shot at 145 pounds. Lopes was just there, but Silva — who is motivated to get a win on the board for the suddenly-struggling Fighting Nerds — is making his first main event here.

Noche UFC’s co-main event is Rob Font vs. David Martinez. Martinez is coming in on short notice, replacing Noche regular Raul Rosas Jr. (full details here).

Rounding out ESPN+’s main card on Saturday is Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon, Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus, Alexander Hernandez vs. Diego Ferreira and Santiago Luna vs. Quang Le.

Noche UFC’s “Prelims” are headlined by Jose Medina vs. Dusko Todorovic. The undercard also has Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Lemos and Zach Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below.

Noche UFC 3 Main Card Money Line Odds

Diego Lopes (+190) vs. Jean Silva (-230)

Lopes came up short opposite an Alexander Volkanovski masterclass at UFC 314 in April (re-live that here). Lopes tried to win by gritting his teeth, coming forward and throwing bombs. Volkanovski showed him there’s more to fighting than that, using his whole toolkit to pick up the vacant UFC Featherweight title. Lopes earned that shot thanks to a five-fight win streak that included victories over Brian Ortega, Dan Ige and Sodiq Yusuff, among others.

Silva, meanwhile, hasn’t lost since 2018 and has won 13 straight. In his most recent appearance, he choked out Bryce Mitchell cold (see it here). Before that, he knocked Melsik Baghdasaryan silly (see that here).

This is a very interesting fight and I think it’s pretty close to call, despite the odds being quite far apart (this isn’t the only fight on this card where I feel this way).

Vegas had the odds much closer when this opened. Lopes opened at +150 and Silva was -200. Silva’s line had shrunk as low as -300, but after the Fighting Nerds struck out in Paris, his line has gone back up to -230

Both these fighters are incredibly skilled at both striking and grappling. What makes them interesting, for different reasons, is their approaches.

Lopes lost to Volkanovski because his approach was all wrong. He decided, early, that he could knockout Volkanovski. So, his entire gameplan became about marching forward trying to land a big shot, despite getting countered and controlled at times. Lopes might have won with this approach if there were more than five rounds in the fight. But, there aren’t. And he simply ran out of time to make enough of a difference with this strategy to win on the scorecards.

Silva’s approach is fascinating. He seems to fight in a total flow state, creating ideas and attacks on the spot. He reminds me of all the best parts of a prime Anderson Silva, think of when he caught James Irvin’s kick and rifled a nasty straight punch right onto his cheek. Silva also has all the goofiness of the worst parts of “The Spider,” too. However, he’s yet to stink up an entire fight because he was acting like a clown (see Silva vs. Demian Maia and/or Thales Leites).

Silva is also a bully in the cage. He comes forward and tries to overwhelm, forcing his opponents into backing up to look for space and time to breathe. Can he do that against Lopes?

Lopes is much bigger and longer than Silva. Silva is going to need to show a lot of trickery to get past Lopes’ jab. And he might be able to do that. If he does get to Lopes, though, Lopes has shown a rock solid chin.

I think the striking might actually be a wash between these two, with both men landing decent shots. I think Silva’s shots will be more interesting looking and might elicit more “oohs” and “aahs” from the crowd, commentary team and maybe even judges.

I have a feeling much of this fight might be spent on the ground, though. I think Lopes has grounds to believe he’s a better grappler than Silva and his size advantage will count for double on the ground compared to when they are trading strikes.

That flow state of Silva’s, and his creativity, does make him a hard puzzle to solve on the ground, though.

As you can see, I’m kind of all over the place on this fight, but I do think Lopes is bringing enough to the table to withstand Lord’s pressure and unorthodox style.

Lopes +5.5 is +120 and I think that’s too good to turn down. I don’t think Silva stops him. I think this could be a close decision and that Lopes might be better down the stretch than Silva is. Silva has never fought five rounds and he’s only been to a decision three times (he’s 1-2 in those fights).

Other bets I like on this fight are the over. Over 2.5 is -160. If someone is going down in this one, I don’t think it happens quickly. Lopes is a slow starter and I have a feeling Silva is going to want to drink in this main event spotlight for as long as he can.

Ultimately, if you give me the points, plus odds and a fighter who I think can win by decision or a stoppage — I’m going to take it every time.

Best bet: Diego Lopes +5.5 (+120)

Rob Font (-135) vs. David Martinez (+114)

Font versus Raul Rosas Jr. would have been a fascinating fight and I’m sad we’re not getting it here. We’re getting a potential banger in exchange, though. We’re not seeing Font versus an elite grappler anymore, instead we’re seeing him go against an undefeated knockout artist.

In his UFC debut in March, Martinez looked like an absolute killer, tearing through Saimon Oliveira (see that here).

Font is on a two-fight win streak, having turned back two other young up-and-comers at Bantamweight. In his last fight, he took a split decision over a very tough Jean Matsumoto. Before that, he dominated Kyler Phillips.

Font really shows up for these fights against hot prospects. In those last two he fought with a real chip on his shoulder, establishing his striking early (and his great jab) to make his opponents think twice about stepping to him.

I think this might be a case of three times a charm, for prospects looking to get past the veteran, though.

We’ve had very limited exposure to Martinez, but the eye test has him off the charts as a dangerous striker. I like him in this fight and I think his ferocity might force Font into being more reactive, a role which — when he’s forced to play it — often results in losses.

I am concerned about the size difference, though. Font is three inches taller and has four inches of reach. Martinez is much more muscled, though, and probably has the strength and power advantage. Martinez also seems to be the faster of the two, again judging by the eye test.

There is a point spread out on this fight now. I can get Martinez +3.5 for -230. I think that bet cashes, but for those odds I’d rather just go with the moneyline. The round total is 2.5. I think this probably goes over. The odds on that are -360. So, again, the moneyline looks pretty good to me.

Best bet: David Martinez moneyline (+114)

Rafa Garcia (+205) vs. Jared Gordon (-250)

Garcia took a decision over Vinc Pichel in UFC’s last actual trip to Mexico. Before that, he was finished by Grant Dawson (see it here). Those results mean he’s currently 5-4 in UFC (after starting his career 8-0 with Combate).

Gordon scored a massive knockout over Thiago Moises in his last fight (see it here). That came after his split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast. That was a pretty poor decision. I, and many others, scored that for Gordon. If you give Gordon that, and his famous decision loss to Paddy Pimblett, he’d be on a six-fight undefeated streak right now.

I think this is Gordon’s fight to win, as reflected in the odds. He’s a much better striker than Garcia and his defensive wrestling and grappling is good enough to not give Garcia too much of an advantage on the ground.

I think Garcia is going to struggle to handle Gordon’s heat on the feet. Gordon lands an above average 5.67 significant strikes per-minute at an above average accuracy rate (55 percent). Garcia has good significant striking defense (60 percent), but I think Gordon is good enough of a boxer to find a key to open that defense.

Gordon has decent takedown defense, too (62 percent and shut Pimblett out on three takedown attempts). That, combined with his size advantage over Garcia (who could probably make Featherweight quite easily), could mean this fight stays standing.

The under is quite tempting here, at +195 for under 2.5 rounds. I’ll just stick with the moneyline, though, since Garcia has only been stopped once (by Dawson).

Best bet: Jared Gordon moneyline (-250)

Kelvin Gastelum (-250) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+205)

Gastelum saw his UFC record drop to 13-10 and one “No Contest” after he lost a decision to Joe Pyfer in June. He was rocked in the first round of that fight, but rallied and stifled Pyfer to force this to a decision. Before this fight, he defeated Daniel Rodriguez after weighing in for the wrong weight class.

Stoltzfus has been very up-and-down lately, but win or lose, he’s been fun to watch. He proved a very tough out for Nursoltun Ruziboev in his last fight, despite losing a decision. Before that, he stunned Marc-Andre Barriault with a technical knockout (see it here) and, before that, he was wiped out by a spinning Brunno Ferreira elbow (see it here).

The loss to Pyfer didn’t really tell us anything new about Gastelum. He remain s a crafty veteran (despite being only 33) who is very hard stop, but who doesn’t have much offensive potency.

The matchmaking has been quite kind to him, dropping him down to an opponent who is a level below Pyfer, Rodriguez and certainly Sean Brady (who submitted Gastelum in 2023).

You look at the odds and achievements and you might think, well Gastelum is going to be too good for this guy.

But, Stoltzfus is just so weird that I think there’s danger in thinking that way. I think he’s a very live dog in this match-up.

He’s bigger and longer than Gastelum (who is pretty much being forced to stay at Middleweight after some disastrous attempts to do the alternative). Stoltzfus is three inches taller and will have a four-inch reach advantage. That will help him in striking, but his size could make a real difference in grappling.

Stoltzfus is a pretty relentless wrestler and he’s quite creative on the ground. He lands 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 41 percent accuracy. That accuracy isn’t amazing, but neither is Gastelum’s takedown defense (58 percent). I think Stoltzfus is going to get him down a few times in this fight.

And I think Stoltzfus’ power might cause some trouble on the feet, too. Gastelum has never been KO’d, but he has been rocked. I can see Stoltzfus hurting Gastelum, but not getting the finish. Even so, that and a couple of takedowns would make a mountain to climb for Gastelum to win this fight.

I’m not the only one who thinks this way, though. Vegas had this as a much closer fight than what the odds suggest right now. Stoltzfus opened at +175 and Gastelum at -225. I agree with the bookies that this is a close one and I’m going to take the punt on the underdog, especially if the public are pushing his line this far out.

Best bet: Dustin Stoltzfus moneyline (+205)

Alexander Hernandez (-122) vs. Diego Ferreira (+102)

Hernandez looked fantastic in his last fight, picking apart and finishing the highly-favored Chase Hooper (see it here). That was little more than one month ago. That pushed Hernandez’s win streak to three fights. The other wins were solid, albeit not spectacular, decisions over Kurt Holobaugh and Austin Hubbard.

Ferreira got Grant Dawson’d in his last fight, losing by lopsided unanimous decision. Before that, he scored finishes over Mateusz Rebecki (see it here) and Michael Johnson (see it here). He won “Performance of the Night” bonuses for both of those.

I’m quite surprised the odds are so close for this one. I feel like Hernandez is on a really good run at the moment and he’s really figured out his game and how to tweak it to specific opponents. He’s been strike heavy against the wrestler/grapplers and wrestle heavy against the grapplers.

That being said, Ferreira does pose an interesting puzzle for Hernandez. He’s essentially a striker, but he has a very dangerous guard. He is 41 years-old, though.

I think the Ferreira renaissance has probably hit its zenith now and the younger, stronger Hernandez will be able to rely on his wrestling to get Ferreira down and win rounds against him. Ferreira has good takedown defense, but it’s not elite. He has defended 57 percent of the takedowns he’s faced in his UFC career. That number is high-ish because of how good Ferreira was at stuffing takedowns as a young man. Lately, that’s not been the case. Dawson went 6-11 against him. Rebecki went 4-5 and Mateusz Gamrot went 4-7. That means he’s defended just 39 percent of the last 23 takedowns attempted on him.

I’m not expecting a mauling like we saw Dawson give Ferreira, but I think Hernandez will do enough to get the win and keep his run going.

Best bet: Alexander Hernandez moneyline (-122)

Jose Medina (+260) vs. Dusko Todorovic (-325)

They’re still giving Medina work, eh?

Last time out, Medina tried to play his Bolivian Zombie act against Ateba Gautier, only to get sparked out in the first round. Prior to that, the act somewhat worked against Zach Reese. Reese threw the kitchen sink at Medina, but couldn’t put him away. Maybe that says more about Reese than Medina (who offered next to zero meaningful offense in that fight).

Todorovic, on the other hand, lost to Reese in his last fight via unanimous decision. Before that, he was obliterated by Mansur Abdul-Malik (see it here). That fight was his first since a long layoff because of a knee injury suffered in his fight with Christian Leroy Duncan.

Some of the fight week pics show that Medina might have trimmed down. He looks more like a fighter and less like Homer Simpson in the body now. Does this mean he’s going to stop fighting like Homer Simpson, though?

I’d be fascinated to see Medina fight with defense and see what he can actually do. If he’s made a mental shift ahead of this fight then we might see a surprise. It’s very hard to put down your hard-earned money on a hypothetical like that, though.

Todorovic is the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up and his past failures taught him a while ago that he needs to take his defense seriously.

The round total for this is 1.5. I’m very surprised by that. We’ve seen both Medina and Todorovic get put away quickly, sure, but we’ve also seen them make it to decisions lately, too. And neither of them are facing a guy like Gauthier or Abdul-Malik on the other side. I think the over is the play.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-238)

Santiago Luna (-135) vs. Quang Le (+114)

Luna, a.k.a. “Borderboy,” is an undefeated (6-0) 21 year-old coming off of Tuff-N-Uff. He’s one of a few fighters on this card who has not been seasoned on Contender Series or TUF. He’s won all but one of his bouts by stoppage (mostly by rear naked choke).

Le, meanwhile, moved to 9-2 after a “Performance of the Night” win over Gaston Bolanos in May, submitting him with the rear-naked choke (see it here). Before that, he was stopped by Long Xiao (see it here). And before that, he stepped in on short notice, and fought commendably, to a decision loss against Chris Gutierrez.

Luna is athletic and explosive. He likes to slam people down and take their backs while they are discombobulated. He might struggle to take Le’s back as easily as the cans he’s met on the southwestern regional scene.

Le will almost certainly be the most skilled grappler he’s ever faced.

Le’s limited striking (just 37 percent accuracy on significant strikes) has me worried for him, though. Luna packs a punch. Despite being quite raw, I think Luna has a pretty clear path to victory on the feet and he might also be able to get it done on the ground. Le can only get this done on the ground. Because of that, I’ll go with the Borderboy to get the win here.

Best bet: Santiago Luna moneyline (-135)

Noche UFC 3 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Claudio Puelles (-115) vs. Joaquim Silva (-105)

Puelles is on a two-fight losing skid. Look who he fought, though. His last fight was in Feb. 2024 against Fares Ziam, who he took to a split decision. Before that, his previous fight was all the way in Nov. 2022. That was his loss to Dan Hooker. Hooker got Puelles with a body kick (see it here) after surviving his multiple Imanari rolls. Puelles was looking for his kneebar in that fight, something he’s landed three times in the Octagon (here he is doing it to Clay Guida).

Silva has been marginally more active than Puelles. His last fight was a loss to Drakkar Klose in May 2024. Before that, he fought in Dec. 2023, getting a decision over Guida.

I’m really not looking forward to this fight. Both these guys have been very inactive over the past few years. Both are coming off losses. And both have negative significant striking differentials. Puelles has landed just 1.56 significant strikes per-minute in his career, while absorbing 2.78. Silva has landed 3.66 per minute, but has also absorbed 4.53.

This just feels like it’s going to be a weird fight and it’s probably going to go to a decision. I wish there was an over/under on how many north-south positions we see in the fight.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-145)

Tatiana Suarez (-440) vs. Amanda Lemos (+340)

If this fight remains on the “Prelims,” then I think we can speculate that there might be something bigger going on behind close doors regarding one or both of these fighters. Suarez’s last fight was her title fight with Zhang Weili (where she was totally out-classed). Lemos, meanwhile, just fought on the main card of UFC 313, looking great in a win over Iasmin Lucindo.

Why are they buried on the “Prelims?”

Is this a situation where UFC knows a fighter is not going to re-sign with them, so it books their last fight (against a tough opponent) and try and get them to lose as they quietly exit the door, thus hindering the next promotion’s chances of promoting them as a former top UFC fighter?

The odds have Suarez as a massive favorite, but the placement of this fight has me thinking the vibes might be off with one of these fighters. I’m personally not going to touch it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a very unmotivated Suarez turn up on Saturday and get pieced apart by Lemos’ striking.

If Suarez is on her game and looking to make a statement after that Zhang loss, she probably wins. But, I don’t think the best version of her walks right through Lemos. Lemos has great takedown defense and grappling and she’s also got a ton of heart and grit.

The round total for this is 2.5 rounds and the over is just +100. That’s Vegas showing confidence in Suarez’s finishing ability in this match-up. I don’t share that confidence.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+100)

Jesus Aguilar (+180) vs. Luis Gurule (-218)

Gurule debuted in a loss to Ode Osbourne in April (the only fight Osbourne has won in his last five). Despite the loss, UFC matchmakers have said, “Please sir, can I have another?” and booked Gurule against one of the many Mexican fighters on this card.

Aguilar is one of the more unheralded fighters repping la raza in San Antonio. He’s coming off a decision loss to Rafael Estevam in February. Before that, he upset Stewart Nicoll with a guillotine (see it here).

Aguilar is a very patient, to the point of passive, fighter who is also quite reactionary. Gurule is someone who goes forward and likes to make things happen. You can see this style expressed in their stats, where Gurule lands 5.35 significant strikes per-minute and Aguilar lands just 1.73. That’s a very low number, especially in a high-octane division like Flyweight.

Aguilar is good on the ground, perhaps much better than Gurule is. But, I’m not sure we’ll get there if Gurule is able to unsettle Aguilar and put a lot of pressure on him.

Best bet: Louis Gurule moneyline (-218)

Zach Reese (-238) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+195)

Reese is working on a weirdsmobile UFC career right now. His career high is his 20-second technical knockout over Julian Marquez (see it here) in June 2024. His career low is his first round battering at the hands of Azamat Bekoev in January (see it here). Reese questioned whether he was getting nailed in the back of the head in that fight. His last appearance was a dull decision win over Dusko Todorovic.

Speaking of weirdsmobiles …

Dumas is probably the only fighter (that we know of) who can say he pulled out of a UFC fight due to an ankle monitor. The last time we saw him fight was when Michael Oleksiejczuk used him to earn his Fighting Nerds glasses. Dumas was finished in less then three minutes in that fight. All three of his UFC losses have been stoppages.

I think this will be a pretty sloppy fight and I can make cases for either guy winning this one. Both have suspect durability, too, so we might see someone go down off a jab. With both men fighting with their chins in the air, I have to side with the fighter who pours on more volume (since they are giving themselves more chances to knock the other guy out). Reese lands 4.28 sig. strikes a minute with 54 percent accuracy. That’s a little inflated due to his quick win over Marquez and his three rounds against the human punching bag Jose Medina.

But even so, Dumas has an extremely low output when it comes to strikes. He lands just 2.10 significant strikes per-minute with just 45 percent accuracy.

The round total is low for this one, at 1.5. Over is +130 and under is -166. I don’t think this ends that quickly, mostly because we just saw Reese struggle to put away a very shop-worn Todorovic. I’ll take the over, expecting Reese to either get a decision or a stoppage sometime in the second round.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+130)

Alessandro Costa (-455) vs. Alden Coria (+350)

Costa got a good win over Kevin Borjas back at UFC 301 in May, 2024 (see the technical knockout here), but that was the last time we saw him. Since then, he’s fallen out of a fight with Matt Schnell. He was supposed to fight Edgar Chairez here (which would have been a dark horse “Fight of the Night” contender).

With Chairez pulling out, Alden Coria slides in to make his UFC debut. He gets the nod despite never appearing on a UFC product before. He has fought almost entirely in LFA and Fury FC, though; promotions that are carried on UFC Fight Pass (so the matchmakers have probably had a decent look at him there).

Coria is an interesting prospect, with good size for Flyweight (he’ll be four inches taller than Costa). But, I think this is a rough match-up for him in his UFC debut. Costa is a good UFC Flyweight whose only UFC losses are to Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. I think he’ll be a cut above Coria in this fight. I believe that enough that I’m happy to ignore one of my typical red flags (a fighter being out more than one year).

The layoff might lead to this being a closer fight than it should be, though. For that reason, I’ll take the over.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-105)

Montserrat Rendon (+124) vs. Alice Pereira (-148)

Rendon lost to the inconsistent Darya Zheleznyakova in her last fight. That was back in March 2024. The 36-year-old was supposed to fight Melissa Mullins in November, but pulled out due to injury.

Rendon welcomes Pereira to the Octagon this weekend. Pereira is just 19 years-old (and she’s not the sister of Alex Pereira, by the way). She’s 5-0 as a pro, but she has a couple of flags on her Tapology profile. Her last fight appears legitimate, though. In December she beat LFA and ONE veteran Samara Santos by unanimous decision to win a regional belt.

The age and experience gap is massive in this fight. I like Pereira as a prospect, but those flagged fights are red flags for me. She has some size on Rendon, but I think she might get a little bullied in this fight and held down for long periods of time. If Pereira is a paper prospect, then Rendon might actually be able to dominate her on the ground and finish with a submission. If Pereira is a legit prospect (and her 15-second knockout wins are to be taken seriously), then maybe she runs through Rendon.

These possibilities have me interested in the rarely-used under play in women’s MMA.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+195)

Rodrigo Sezinando (+190) vs. Danil Donchenko (-230)

This is the Welterweight finale for Daniel Cormier and Chael Sonnen’s The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) season. It was supposed to happen at UFC 319 in August, but it was rescheduled for here. Why? I don’t know. Will I try and find out? No.

Sezinando was a champion in Canada’s BFL promotion (one of the best we have here). He’s also spent time in Shooto Brazil. He’s got an 8-1 record and fights out of Nova Uniao.

Donchenko is 11-2. He notched a win in ONE championships and a loss in UAE Warriors. All his other fights have happened at orgs a few tiers below those.

Sezinando appears to be more capable of “wow” moments, whereas Donchenko is more well-rounded and solid. In this situation, I’ll go with the guy with the better game over the guy with the better highlight reel.

Best bet: Danil Donchenko moneyline (-230)

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action.

Diego Lopes by submission (+700)

I think Lopes is being a little slept on in this fight and the Fighting Nerd narrative is spiraling a little out of control. I think this is a close fight, but Lopes’ size could make a real difference if and when this gets to the ground. Both guys have excellent grappling, but Lopes has shown us more of that at this level than Lord has.

David Martinez to win via knockout (+500)

Martinez might be that guy.

He’s one of the more exciting prospect to come off Contender Series in the last year. His striking is fast and powerful and he might finally be the prospect who unseats Rob Font. Font had been preparing for Raul Rosas Jr. at Noche UFC, but this replacement opponent fights nothing like him.

Three-bet parlay: Luis Gurule, Dustin Stoltzfus, Jared Gordon (+526)

This is my “Sorry Mexico!” parlay.

Stoltzfus is one of my more risky underdog plays for this event. I think he has power in his hands and some good tricks on the ground and that this will be enough to get past the declining Gastelum. The other two are moderate favorites, for good reason. Gurule should be too aggressive for Aguilar and Gordon should be too clinical for Garcia.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire Noche UFC fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 3 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 6 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To checkout the latest and greatest Noche UFC: “Lopes vs. Silva” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.